I’ve been thinking on this. If it is weighted equal we are still at a resource disadvantage. While you might have the resources to run a test like this, we are really only concerned with 2 & 3 GA items that actually have stats for our build. These are scarce unless you are trading.
Yes, perfect or near perfect gear is exceptionally hard to come by even with unweighted tempers. That has absolutely no relevance in a discussion of weighting of tempers though, and really belongs in a different discussion altogether. You also don’t need such gear for anything in the game.
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may i know why 4 options but 5 counts? thank you.
Because some variables have 5 options so I just made it with 5 variables. I think some actually have 6 now that I look at it, but whatever… if you want to do 1 with 6 youll have to add another one yourself.
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Right grind for good gear and all that, that wasn’t my point. But yeah we’ll keep it on topic to just the weights. Thanks for the #'s.
This does prove with data that this specific temper seems to be working correctly. Now just repeat this with every temper for every hero and we can put to bed the idea something is off.
BTW does it give data on repeat rolls? How often is this happening?
It didn’t when I ran the test, but it has since added it so you can record it for yourself if you are so inclined.
As I said in the initial post, if you think they maliciously allocate weights to tempers but I just happened to pick one where all the options happen to be equal, that’s on you and you have the capacity to test any category for yourself if you need even more evidence.
I asked the same thing and we will have to test for ourselves. But I have bouts where it happens often and other times not at all. That said I have changed my approach to tempering and have been settling for non BiS rolls to save myself the frustration. As long as a roll is relevant to the build I am playing I just keep it and move on now.
Im not in that group. Im in the group that thinks nothing malicious is intended but there is a bug that makes repeats more common than should happen.
Bliz is not having a feature build like frozen orb and then making it harder or easier to roll tempers for it. That would be really dire and would probably be something somebody could take legal action on.
It’s certainly possible, but even if that were true there’s nothing inherently “unfair” about that outcome. It is less player-friendly though, I guess.
If you want to prove that kind of bug exists you will need a LOT more than 3000 recorded data points, just in case you’re thinking about it.
there are always people who will continue to wear their tinfoil hats in the face of evidence. people will still claim the rolls are weighted and that there are extravagant methods to work around the weighted rolls. my fav was respeccing and taking all the skills other than bash because “the game detects what your build is and intentionally trolls you”.
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I’m in the disgruntled group myself mainly because RNG has been completely awful for me in every aspect this season. Pushing the VoH preorder on me every day hasn’t helped either. I would be more inclined to open my wallet if there was a light at the end of this S4 grind. Nothing yet though…
That’s not the same as weighting to favor or not a given roll. That is simply adding to the pool, all results are still approximately the same chance for any of the choices. It doesn’t matter that a given stat is or isn’t desirable.
Well, so the tempers aren’t weighted.
But that is moot. With just 5 rolls, that just proves that the system is broken and doesn’t work. The reality is with 5 rolls and 4 choices you have a very good chance of never getting the roll you want. And some manuals have like 5 or 6 temper options. They need to either get rid of the temper limit, or get rid of the RNG and just let you choose the temper.
Again, this is an entirely different discussion to the one I intended to solve. I believe you’re also wrong in this assertion, but given that it is atleast a subjective one, you’re of course free to hold it.
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Cool. Now explain how rolling the same affix 6 to 12 times in a row, which is practically impossible from a probability point of view, happens regularly to a lot of people.
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0.75^6=17.79%
0.75^12=3.16%
Millions of people play D4.
Or, like some people above have suggested (and I mentioned in the original post), it’s possible there’s a bug or intentional mechanic that causes rolls to repeat, that wouldn’t skew the overall chance over a long enough number of iterations. If you want to make that claim, you need MANY more data points than 3000, let alone on the basis of ad hoc forum claims. The chance is not low enough that you wouldn’t see it occur all the time in a population the size of D4.
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That doesn’t explain it. I personally witness this quite a bit yet the probability of it happening even 5 times in a row is 0.1%.
If it happened once or twice that would be a phenomenon. Happening regularly is something broken.
Go ahead… write a script or program with an array of 4 numbers. Have it run 10000 times or whatever and record how many times you rolled the same number from the array 5 times in a row. Now repeat that for 12 times in a row.
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I literally told you the chance of it happening, in the post that you quoted.
Avoiding a 25% chance 6 times in a row is a 17% chance to occur; you’ll see it 1/~8 times on average. Avoiding it 12 times in a row is a 3% chance, you’ll see it ~1/31 times on average.
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People need to really stop crying about stuff it’s a really great addition to thé game but all thé crying because you don’t get thé temper
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