Some remarks / ideas regarding Tempering in Season 4. (math included)

I have some remarks / ideas about Tempering.

  • Items with Greater Affixes should have more Rerolls because they are more valuable and bricking them will be very frustrating.
    Items without Greater Affixes are easier to repeatingly get and therefor should have less Rerolls.
    Uniques and Uber Uniques should have more Rerolls for the same reason.
    For every Greater Affix, items should get extra Rerolls.

  • If the right Affix have been rolled, you should be able to fix it, so you can reroll it into a better value without fear of loosing the right Affix.

  • On every reroll attempt you should be asked if you are ok with the new result or if you want the old one to stay.

  • A ressource could be put into the game to reset your Reroll amount, but this would be to powerful in my opinion and would be either to easy to get or to valuable.
    This shouldn’t be tradable.

for 1 Affix:
min 1 try: 25.00 % (1 - 0.75) exactly 1st try: 25 %
min 2 tries: 43.75 % (1-0.75^2) exactly 2nd try: 18.75 %
min 3 tries: 57.81 % (1-0.75^3) exactly 3rd try: 14.06 %
min 4 tries: 68.36 % (1-0.75^4) exactly 4th try: 10.55 %
min 5 tries: 76.27 % (1-0.75^5) exactly 5th try: 7.91 %
min 6 tries: 82.20 % (1-0.75^6) exactly 6th try: 5.93 %
min 7 tries: 86.65 % (1-0.75^7) exactly 7th try: 4.45 %
min 8 tries: 89.99 % (1-0.75^8) exactly 8th try: 3.34 %
min 9 tries: 92.49 % (1-0.75^9) exactly 9th try: 2.50 %
min 10 tries: 94.37 % (1-0.75^10) exactly 10th try: 1.88 %

On average 4 tries / 3 rerolls for the right Affix and 5 rerolls are sufficient for 76 % chance of getting the right Affix.

for 2 Affixes:
0 Rerolls: 1st/1st try:
0.25*0.25 = 6.25 %

1 Reroll: 1st/2nd + 2nd/1st try:
2* (0.25*0.1875) = 9.38 %

2 Rerolls: 1st/3rd + 3rd/1st + 2nd/2nd try:
2* (0.25 * 0.1406) + 0.1875^2 = 10.55 %

3 Rerolls: 1st/4th + 4th/1st + 2nd/3rd + 3rd/2nd try:
2* (0.25 * 0.1055) + 2* (0.1875 * 0.1406) = 10.55 %

4 Rerolls: 1st/5th + 5th/1st + 2nd/4th + 4th/2nd + 3rd/3rd try:
2* (0.25 * 0.0791) + 2* (0.1875 * 0.1055) + 0.1406^2 = 9.89 %

5 Rerolls: 1st/6th + 6th/1st + 2nd/5th + 5th/2nd + 3rd/4th + 4th/3rd try:
2* (0.25 * 0.0593) + 2* (0.1875 * 0.0791) + 2* (0.1406 * 0.1055) = 8.90 %

6 Rerolls: 1st/7th + 7th/1st + 2nd/6th + 6th/2nd + 3rd/5th + 5th/3rd + 4th/4th try:
2* (0.25 * 0.0445) + 2* (0.1875 * 0.0593) + 2* (0.1406 * 0.0791) + 0.1055^2 = 7.79 %

7 Rerolls: 1st/8th + 8th/1st + 2nd/7th + 7th/2nd + 3rd/6th + 6th/3rd + 4th/5th + 5th/4th try:
2* (0.25 * 0.0334) + 2* (0.1875 * 0.0445) + 2* (0.1406 * 0.0593) + 2* (0.1055 * 0.0791) = 6.68 %

8 Rerolls: 1st/9th + 9th/1st + 2nd/8th + 8th/2nd + 3rd/7th + 7th/3rd + 4th/6th + 6th/4th + 5th/5th try:
2* (0.25 * 0.0250) + 2* (0.1875 * 0.0334) + 2* (0.1406 * 0.0445) + 2* (0.1055 * 0.0593) + 0.0791^2 = 5.63

9 Rerolls: 1st/10th + 10th/1st + 2nd/9th + 9th/2nd + 3rd/8th + 8th/3rd + 4th/7th + 7th/4th + 5th/6th + 6th/5th try:
2* (0.25 * 0.0188) + 2* (0.1875 * 0.0250) + 2* (0.1406 * 0.0334) + 2* (0.1055 * 0.0445) + 2* (0.0791 * 0.0593) = 4.69 %

There are no tries included for better stats, only for the right Affix.
So you will have bricked your item with the following percentages, if you need exactly these 2 Affixes:
(rounding errors included)

0 possible rerolls: 93.75 %
1 possible reroll: 84.37 %
2 possible rerolls: 73.82 %
3 possible rerolls: 63.27 %
4 possible rerolls: 53.38 %
5 possible rerolls: 44.48 %
6 possible rerolls: 36.69 %
7 possible rerolls: 30.01 %
8 possible rerolls: 24.38 %
9 possible rerolls: 19.69 %

With 2 Affixes on average 8 tries / 6 rerolls for the right Affixes => 8 rerolls sufficient for 76 % chance of getting the right Affix.

1 Like

Thanks. Interesting data.