5 1.5% chances isn’t 7.5%
It’s
1 - ((chance not to drop, 98.5%)^5)
=1 - (.985^5) = (roughly) 7.27%
Close, but far enough off to show the person posted just really doesn’t know how math works. Maybe that’s why they can’t balance anything.
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1,000 * 40% = 1,040
Characters
Probabilities like this I think are very misleading… chances aren’t additive… at the end of the day they are independent rolls, more rolls just means more chances of rolling within that 1.5… that’s my take on it I guess…
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Yes it is, because sometimes you get more than one. So on average, over 100 kills, you get 7.5 mythics.
No, that’s literally not how it works. My math is correct.
5 independent chances of 1.5% aren’t additive.
Just because “sometimes you get more than one” doesn’t change the correct way probability is calculated.
do you actually know what you calculated and what leusebi said?
paradoxically, both of your statements are correct
but your reaction to his statement leads me to conclude that you didn’t understand what you calculated.
That’s about one every 14 kills, isn’t it? I seriously doubt it will turn out that way for me, but every now and then I hit the RNG jackpot.
yes that means that you get at least 1 mythical unique every 14th try, if you repeat this endlessly.
but thats a way better as normal uber bosses (andariel and duriel) for this u had to do 50 tries to get at least 1, if you repeated this endlessly.
Technically, your chance is still 1.5%.
So your math is wrong.
And I’d argue their math is correct in this instance, because if you have 1000 items drop, you’ll likely end up with 15 items.
But if you have 5000 items drop you’ll likely end up with 75 items.
They’re not telling you the mathematic probability that you’ll get an item, they’re telling you how many items to expect per n items that drop.
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Well, I’ll never know if I don’t try. Whatever the math is exactly, it sounds like I will have a better chance this coming season!! Or more chances, haha 
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More bad math?
- Now gain 25% more increased Skill Damage from their primary Core Stat.
- Gain 1% increased Skill Damage for every 8 primary Core Stat, reduced from 10 primary Core Stat.
Wouldn’t that be a 20% increase?
No.
100/10 = 10
100/8 = 12.5
That’s a 25% increase.
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It was 1/10 now it is 1/8, to put them in relative terms
8/80 and 10/80
The difference is 2/80 which is 25% of 8/80 so it actually is a 25% increase
OR
(1/10) + (.25 * (1/10)) = .125 = 1/8
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You actually get more than 7.5 yield per 100 kills precisely because winning a roll doesn’t preclude the others from also winning.
The chances of winning one is 7.3%. But the overall yield I think is around 10 per 100 (given a large enough sample size).
Yes, I’m agreeing.
But I’m also stating the yield is higher than just 7.5 (7.3).
For players, the yield is often more important than a raw percentage.
Either way, it’s a net buff over S4.
I am braindead from work I’ll leave that math to someone else lol.
I am having trouble working out the likelihood of more than one cuz yeah, once you get to that many fights the likelihood of getting 1 isn’t that different from 99 fights to 100 fights, but I can’t remember how to account for average overall lol
Bliz math is easily provably wrong. Say the chance was 50%. According to Bliz after 2 runs you would be guaranteed a mythic but 25% of the time you would not have one.
How do you figure that?
100 kills is 500 rolls. Each roll is independent and has a 1.5% chance to be a mythic. So, on average, 1.5% of the rolls will produce a mythic. 500 * 1.5% = 7.5 mythics. So on average 100 kills yields 7.5 mythics.
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Because the 7.3% figure is to receive one out of the 5 chances. After getting one, the other chances are still in play.
Receiving 2 or more vastly increases your yield, but the chances are far lower.
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I meant, how do you figure that the yield is 10 per 100 kills. Why isn’t it 7.5?