Again someone who doesn’t understand multiple probabilities.
Yes their 7.5% is wrong, and yes it’s 1.5% at each drop, BUT, in terms of probabilities, you have more than 1.5% chance on the 5th roll to have an Uber.
It’s called “calculating probabilities of multiple events”. Look it up. That’s because your life is more than a single event, it’s a combination of multiple events.
You have to look at the chances of not getting an Uber 5 times in a row, and the formula is P(a) x P(b) x P(c) x P(d) x P(e) = P(a+b+c+d+e)
P(a) is the probability to not have an Uber on first roll, P(e) is the probability to not have an Uber on the 5th roll.
So that’s 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 = 0.774
In other words you have 77.4% chance to NOT have an Uber dropping 5 times in a row. (edit: I used 5% instead of 1.5%, wrong calculation and I was corrected, see at the bottom for update)
The system doesn’t keep track of dropping before or not, but that’s not the point, you don’t have 95% chances to not have drop it 5 times in a row, you only have 77.4%. Because you tried 5 times, and not just once.
That is why the more you try, the more chances you have to drop an Uber. Again, those are probabilities, not certainties. There are time I did 40 tormented Duriel without an Uber dropping, and that’s a probability of 0.0035% of happening. Yet, it happened, you have to get pretty unlucky like I did.
It’s like the people in this thread saying they dropped an Uber outside of bosses. Personally I can’t believe it because so far the chances we were aware of are in the realm of 0.000001%. Yet, it can happen given enough people, killing enough mobs.
Another way to think about it: what are you chances of logging in, killing 1 random mob and having a GA drop? Very very low.
But what are you chance of doing an entire NM Dungeon, short of the boss and elites, and not having 1 GA drop? Well, pretty unlikely.
Edit: Calculations above are wrong since I used 5% chance of Uber drop instead of 1.5%. The formula remains, but it’s actually 92.7% chance to not have an Uber after 5 drops.