Mythic Uniques actual drop rate released by blizz and

PC General Discussion
1

First let start with Dev rationale ,

" Developer’s Note: The goal of these changes is to broaden the chances of acquiring Mythic Unique Items. Now, players can engage with whatever Tormented Boss they have the materials for in their quest to find a Mythic Unique."

  • All Tormented Bosses have 5 chances to drop a mythic at 1.5% chance each. In total, a 7.5% chance to drop a Mythic Unique. The resulting effect of this change is that the bosses have a chance to drop multiple Mythic Uniques instead of just 1.

As per player base theory 10% was pretty close, but it is actually 7.5%. I think this is still too low in my opinion, if they really want more people to get mythic they should up it higher, especially since S5 is shorter in comparison.

Also,

  • The cost to summon a Tormented boss had been reduced from 2 Stygian Stones to 1.
    (Thank god but i’d prfer it to require 0)

Also,

  • The chance to find Mythic Unique items through all non-boss means has been increased.

I don’t know about they said this so many times already but I’ve never seen a mythic unique drop outside of Tormented boss. Has any of you ever ?

Good changes over all, I don’t want to get too greedy but , we are heading in the right direction.

6 Likes
2

I’m happy with that 7.5% :slight_smile: and being actually divided in 5x 1.5 is probably better

2 Likes
3

that is how it is, or has been. I don’t think they buffed the drop rate on the tormented boss for S5. If you log in live game now that is the drop rate.

But they did buff the drop rate again for mythic unique outside of the tormented boss. By how much they never said. And they said they buffed it last season too, and prior season I think. I don’t know how much these buffs are but to me it felt the same because I still have never found any mythic uniques outside of tormented boss LOL

They added mythic unique to drop in whisper cache, helltide chests and obols vendor. I hope these are significant enough that people will actually be acquiring them through these means otherwise, what is the point ?

1 Like
4

Dividing the target 7.5% by 5 is actually marginally worse - you gain the possibility of an extremely rare double-success outcome, but 5x occurrences of a 1.5% outcome is not actually 7.5% but 7.3%, obtained by a binomial distribution probability calculation. Just like if you flip a coin twice you don’t get to add the 50% outcome twice to yield a 100% probability of a heads, but a 75% probability of a heads.

Edit: Fixed some math and edited for accuracy. I input the number wrong and the end result of 5x 1.5% events is much better than I realized - it’s 7.3% so only marginally worse than their stated 7.5%. A nice benchmark for us as gamers on this is to know that 8 kills or two rotas aggregates to 40 occurrences of a 1.5% probability, which combines to a 45% chance of one mythic unique (as you increase the # of trials the deviation from intuitive probability becomes more pronounced - at 40 rolls intuitive addition of 1.5% 40 times would suggest a 60% chance but in reality it’s only 45%). Still, almost a 50% chance of a mythic from two full rotas isn’t too bad!

4 Likes
5

yeah there math is wrong, its just

1.5 % chance to get mythic rolled on a 100 sided dice
1.5 % chance to get mythic rolled on a 100 sided dice
1.5 % chance to get mythic rolled on a 100 sided dice
1.5 % chance to get mythic rolled on a 100 sided dice
1.5 % chance to get mythic rolled on a 100 sided dice

so its still 1.5 % chance to get it, but it lets you roll the dice like you ran the uber boss 5 times instead of killing it only once. so its was around 1000 kills to get 1 mythic now it might be around 200 kills… but not getting one doesnt add a to petty counter, so every time you kill the boss its still 1.5 %

some sort of Gambler’s fallacy logic in there explanation

4 Likes
6

I failed college statistics and I don’t understand binomial probability lol. But thanks for the education there.

7

20 characters ssssss

8

Yes, 2x Doombringer’s dropped for me outside of bosses. Probably in helltides. Alas, it was a huge downgrade so they were just deleted.

9

Played all seasons and have never had an uber unique drop. I think 10% chance would be a better number. 7.5 just seems an odd choice.

1 Like
10

Yea, the truth is unless you get really lucky, or RNG favors you, you won’t see mythic uniques at current drop rate. I guess that is what Blizzard wants right now. They only want you to get one when you get really lucky. Not moderately lucky or whatnot.

But prior in Pre-season up to Season 3, mythic literally did not exist for anyone playing this game LOL

11

I never found any mythic unique, just crafted a shako in D4 with sparks.
The thing is… I don’t like items in the game that are nearly impossible to find.
When there is a 1 : 1000000000 chance for the item to drop, you can literally remove it from the game.
So I appreciate all the changes on higher droprates.

1 Like
12

yup, exactly. I’ve been pushing for higher drop rate on mythic uniques since as long as I can remember. We finally have a state where it MIGHT be possible for people to see a drop IF you get REALLY LUCKY on tormented bosses.

I’ve yet to ever see 1 to drop outside of tormented bosses though. So, they are definitely still considered Rare.

2 Likes
13

Got a Shako drop from a Pit Boss and I believe 5 more Ubers from Tormented Bosses. Didn’t do that many TBoss rotations (blame the Stones). No so bad.

Don’t know where the number came from, but the drop rate I had in mind for S4 was 2%. Does it mean it mean they are reducing that to 1.5% for S5 or my number was just wrong?

14

it is 1.5% per loot chance I think. But Tormented boss drop 5 uniques, so that is 1.5% X 5 is what I am getting out of patch notes.

each time unique drop from tormented boss, it has 1.5% chance of being a Mythic. So, technically it is possible for it to pop multiple Mythics if you get real lucky.

15

What I had in mind was 2% for regular Duriel in S3 and that the rate was x5 for Tormented Bosses in S4, meaning 10% (based on Blizz calculation) not 7.5%. That’s why I am mentioning a reduction of the drop rate for S5.
Maybe drops from other sources than TBosses are supposed to compensate.

16

Andy mask dropped from Blood Maiden. not that I needed it but I was shocked beyond belief.

Seeing is believing though.
However if I don’t get a mythic unique from bosses I have NO PROBLEM making alts and getting SPARKS to craft what ever I need/want.

Honestly, because of THIS everybody should just be grateful IMO.

3 Likes
17

I think stygian stones will drop more often too.

Assuming you mean S4 not PTR?

If so, yes. 1st shako this season dropped from a chest in NMD. Last couple days I got an andy, a GF (my first ever), a Lycander, and a Starless Skies, all from normal Duriel. Idr how many rotations, maybe 50, my mats. Haven’t bothered with tormented bosses.

18

Those drop rates are insanly high.

3 Likes
19

1.5% is high?
(normal boss)

20

Again someone who doesn’t understand multiple probabilities.

Yes their 7.5% is wrong, and yes it’s 1.5% at each drop, BUT, in terms of probabilities, you have more than 1.5% chance on the 5th roll to have an Uber.

It’s called “calculating probabilities of multiple events”. Look it up. That’s because your life is more than a single event, it’s a combination of multiple events.

You have to look at the chances of not getting an Uber 5 times in a row, and the formula is P(a) x P(b) x P(c) x P(d) x P(e) = P(a+b+c+d+e)
P(a) is the probability to not have an Uber on first roll, P(e) is the probability to not have an Uber on the 5th roll.

So that’s 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 = 0.774
In other words you have 77.4% chance to NOT have an Uber dropping 5 times in a row. (edit: I used 5% instead of 1.5%, wrong calculation and I was corrected, see at the bottom for update)

The system doesn’t keep track of dropping before or not, but that’s not the point, you don’t have 95% chances to not have drop it 5 times in a row, you only have 77.4%. Because you tried 5 times, and not just once.

That is why the more you try, the more chances you have to drop an Uber. Again, those are probabilities, not certainties. There are time I did 40 tormented Duriel without an Uber dropping, and that’s a probability of 0.0035% of happening. Yet, it happened, you have to get pretty unlucky like I did.

It’s like the people in this thread saying they dropped an Uber outside of bosses. Personally I can’t believe it because so far the chances we were aware of are in the realm of 0.000001%. Yet, it can happen given enough people, killing enough mobs.

Another way to think about it: what are you chances of logging in, killing 1 random mob and having a GA drop? Very very low.
But what are you chance of doing an entire NM Dungeon, short of the boss and elites, and not having 1 GA drop? Well, pretty unlikely.

Edit: Calculations above are wrong since I used 5% chance of Uber drop instead of 1.5%. The formula remains, but it’s actually 92.7% chance to not have an Uber after 5 drops.

3 Likes