Yeah yeah, “rng is like that” - look, ante up: weeks from now, there’ll be a stealth fix, or a blue post saying they found a “bug”. Same with Tempering. The “bugs” are in control, particularly with new implementations. That’s established lore now. So the more credible camp is most often the “something’s not working right” camp, just on background evidence. Smart betting means respecting history.
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To all the people that keep saying its “RNG” and its not weighted and your sample size is to small etc etc I would like to note that nowhere in the description of upgrading does it say “random”…in fact it says “One affix increases by 25%”. This means it most certainly can be weighted as blizzard has never stated otherwise and the description itself doesn’t denote its random…in fact when you temper an item it DOES denote “Adds a RANDOM affix from recipes”. So clearly by their own language it most certainly can be weighted as they never notated that it is truly random.
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TO those that think its not weighted. If it’s not weighted why are people taking 400+ re-rolls to get the affix increase they want when the item has 4 options total
I mean if you are looking to crit roll the same stat 3 times in a row when there are 4 stats possible, even if its not weighted is very low probability.
I do believe stuff is weighted though and if thats true I hate it. I can deal with RNG if stuff truly has the same chance to roll. I dont think it does though. Not in mw nor in tempering. We already know things are weighted in enchanting and I don’t like that either.
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Same thing happened with me with shako and ring with GA in attack speed.
I spend i think more than 1.5 billion on 2 items to get double masterworking on stat that i needed. It’s kinda odd for sure, or maybe i am that unlucky.
But apparently we have a whole bunch of unlucky people here LMAO
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Definitely weighted on master working, you can simply test and follow them numbers yourself. The rarer the affix, the rarer the masterwork crit is… Which in short terms is a double bottle neck and I haven’t even mentioned the desire for a GA on said rare affix. In all reality, with the amount of RNG bottle necks in the game now with tempering, GA’s and masterwork crits. I think it’s only natural that something needs to change for the better, since I too don’t feel like bothering with the game anymore. Either get rid of weighted rolls on affixes all together or add the ability to select your tempers and use the rerolls on stat ranges or to swap to a different stat to test out our builds. One or the other would make this system much more bearable than the time waste casino that it currently is.
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It seems to me, the items with 3 GAs are easier to be brick, because of RNG or weighted aspects of RNG.
I made several great items being brick already. So weird!
Its useless, I give up until they fix this game. Spend 1Bill, dozens of pit runs, wasted 100s of materiales just to try and get 2 consecutive masterworking rolls on a +2 skeletal mage mastery and nothing. Heck, forget about the second roll, even getting the first roll had absolutely insane low probability (all the time getting decrepify % or Int). I just tried the second roll 3 times in all that wasted money and matts. Like wtf? We were a group of around 14 friends when we started and now we are 2 left because people just got tired of this BS. And then Blizzard wonders why player activity goes down and down.
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Rng can be like that. I got lucky and rolled 3x DR on my tbs and 3x on crit dmg on mt starless skies. I could continue but i got to 130 pit. Everything outside of thr pit is a 1 shot and pit like GR are super boaring linear hallways.
I honestly don’t even mind pit grind that much. Worst problem is the iron and veiled crystals since I can’t trade or break legendary mats into those.
I’m hard stuck 135 because of those two mats lol.
I don’t think I’ll spend hours grinding mats just so I can spend another 6b trying to stack double Crit…I have yet to hit a single 2/3 Crit yet.
I think 6b is a pretty damn good sample size to be honest.
Not sure my math is right. It’s been a while and I am not been really comfortable with Probability. But Ok, here my numbers. Anyone feel free to correct me if I am wrong.
Assuming equal probability for the 4 choices (no weighting), for 98% chance to get the roll you are looking for (it is never 100%), you need at least 14 tries. If you want twice the roll, you need at least 21. More than 28 for 3 times the roll. So yes, it is probably a lot of time and gold if you want to be almost sure to get want you want.
Well if you’re looking for 1 stat and 1 stat only you have a 80% chance of not getting what you want. In terms of mats i havnt had that issue but I also didnt live in the pit because its a linear hallway.
Iron and VC can be a roadblock if one plays trade simulator or just does nothing but the pit.
This game does have weighted RNG.
Enjoy your (main stat) (max life) (life per second) on everything.
It can take up to 100 rolls to see a +X to a passive on an amulet. That’s crap.
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Should not be referred to as rng,
The Correct abbreviation is WNG
Get it right
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The reason why we have this weighted thingy is that Diablo 4 devs wants us to spend more time on grinding.
If the year was 1990’s we couldve accepted this. But nowadays, we tend to spend a few hours on a game, have fun and done.
Diablo 4 couldve made this mechanic more of a player controlled rng.
I just wrote some code to mimic the RNG (without weighting) to see how many attempts it would take to get a perfect roll.
This is very basic, so it’s assuming that you want to masterwork the same stat 3 times on your item.
I run it 1000 times, it keeps rolling until it gets the perfect roll.
The minimum number of rolls to get the perfect item, was 1
The maximum number of rolls to get the perfect item, was 617
The average number of rolls to get the perfect item, was 64
If you spent 1 billion gold this means you performed 200 rolls (at most).
On average, you could have gotten the perfect roll 3 times but that’s still less than a third of the way to the maximum number of rolls required without weighting.
I’ve run this multiple times, and the minimum attempt count is always 1 whilst the maximum attempt count varies from about 350-700 rolls. The average remains about 65 each time.
If you really want a specific masterworking upgrade path for your item, then you’re likely going to have to spend 3 to 4 billion gold on it, but hey, you could get lucky and get it on the first attempt.
If there is weighting, then this becomes pretty much impossible and not even worth attempting but given these numbers there’s currently no actual evidence of weighting in masterworking. Of course, this is just using non-weighted RNG math. If you want to do a masterworking upgrade 5000-10000 times and log what each upgrade applies to (on the same item), so that we can see what the ‘actual’ rolls are, this would be the minimum data required to see if it is indeed weighted or not.
“Managed” RNG lol
20 fake numbers
Enchanting has been proven to be weighted.
Everything is as well more than likely.
Play the frustration game longer.
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They won when you bought the game.
See you next season!
For me, I’ve been pretty fortunate to have shako, Tyrael’s, and my bash pants all crit on the affixes I wanted (CDR, max element resist, and + to bash). Rings have been pretty good, too, as most of my crits went to crit strike chance
That said, I had another shako that I spend 300 mill resetting to get at least two crits to CDR, but no such luck. It’s been few weeks since I last tried, but I’m not really feeling it. Also, I spent a lot of gold, on my ammy in the hopes it would crit on the GA for slaying strike. Out of countless tries, I could only get it to crit once, and this was masterworking it from 1-12 each time as I would have been happy with 2 crits to that affix and lose of all the mats. I ended up settling on two crits to crit strike chance and just one to slaying strike.
With the season winding down, I am caring a lot less about min/maxing with that in mind, but I agree with those who have mentioned that resetting masterworked items should not reset the entire thing, but reset its current tier only.