I am on PIT 95, which shows a 25% chance to upgrade a 98 level glyph. I have attempted to update my 98 level glyph on 5 PIT 95 completions, which is 20 chances, and it has never succeeded. I know a 25% chance isn’t exactly 1 in 4, but it should be greater than 0 in 20.
25% chance each pit run. It doesn’t stack for other runs…
And you’re right, a 25% chance isn’t exactly 1 in 4…
25% for each “chance”, not PIT run… meaning when you clear the PIT you get (up to) four chances, with each chance having a 25%.
So it’s really 4x 25% each PIT run.
For each chance, you got 75% not to work and 25% it will work. The rest is random calculation, so your chances are not quite 1 in 4 chances.
For instance, if you got a lottery chance of 1 in 4, it doesn’t mean that if you buy 4 lottery tickets, one of them has a prize…
Welcome to D4 “Las Vegas” Gambling…
So 5 PIT runs is 20x 25%.
5 pit runs are 20 chances to upgrade with a odd of 1 in 4, each chance.
Let’s say 25 or lower, you win. Between 26 and 100 you loose.
Let’s start random gambling:
- 26
- 67
- 89
- 100
- 51
- 63
- 65
- 26
- 38
- 20 Bingo!
… you get my point, right?
Yes, but the probability of getting at least one desired result in 20 attempts, with a 25% chance per attempt, is approximately 99.68%. That’ll never go to 100%, but given 99.68 and I didn’t get one, seems like something’s broken.
I’m going to try PIT 96. Not sure I can even complete it, but it’s worth a try, I guess.
I can’t figure out where you get that 99,68% odds, since it’s all random generated…
There’s a way to calculate for the probability, given multiple random attempts:
- Calculate the probability of not getting the desired result in a single attempt:
P(no success in one attempt) = 1−P(success) = 1−0.25 = 0.75
- Raise this probability to the power of the number of attempts to find the probability of no successes in 20 attempts:
P(no success in 20 attempts) = 0.75^20
- Subtract this from 1 to find the probability of at least one success:
P(at least one success) = 1 − P(no success in 20 attempts) = 1−0.75^20
I did verify that at PIT 95 and above the percentages are not what is listed. It seems like they are shifted a tier. So 25% is really 10% and 10% is really 0% (the entire set seems shifted). I didn’t validate that they are exactly shifted a tier because it’s a lot of PIT runs just for the sake of validating, but it certainly isn’t doing what’s being displayed.
I’m sure that’s not high on the bug list so it’ll probably never get fixed, but I’ve officially reported it now.