Grab a pair of dice. Take a chance and roll a set of numbers. What are the odds they land on the same number 6 times in a row? well that would be (1/6)6=1/7776 or a 0.01286% chance to get the same outcome 6 times in a row. So when I temper an item and brick it because it lands on the same result “that I don’t want” and this happens more often that I would like - It’s no longer RNG. It’s more like Blizzard being a jerk intentionally - and masking the outcome as fair play.
What they should do is. Before tempering anything or changing stats at the occultist there should be a risk probability counter next to the option you want to change. so you know how long, and how much of your life and resources will be spend on an almost fruitless endeavor.
I play Sorcerer… I spend close to 3 billion in gold and over an hour trying to get
+2 devouring blaze. there were 12 options available. You can almost tell how powerful a stat is by the rarity you see a roll. When I finally got my devouring blaze it was a +1. And I had to do a real self-check in the mirror if I really wanted to spend another hour just to find another +1 to Dev blaze. I am trying to play a game where I kill monsters for 3 hrs straight, and looking for a bit of help to do it faster, and BLizzard would intentionally punish me in a way where I am no longer playing the game as intended, instead haggling and bartering and pissing all my resources away into the infernal iggy bin. This rant is longer than it has to be but for my sanity and posterity It must be said.
Blizzard you are acting like a corrupt roulette dealer, and your hand is on the wheel. At your next camp fire chat why don’t you introduce integrity in the next update/patch
7 Likes
I’ve wondered if tempering is either it rolls on the aspects so 1/5 chance to hit one then it rolls for the value.
Or is it populating a table with a row for every possible outcome for both aspects and value. For example
Crit damage 40%
Crit damage 41%
…
Vulnerable damage 40%
Vulnerable damage 41%
And so on. The later would make the chances not 1/5 anymore and might explain why we keep seeing the same thing hit what seems like against the odds. Because values with a higher range would have more entries and then lead to appearance of weighted rolls.
2 Likes
you are missing part of the equation. first you have to pick a die from your bag of dice. there are a ton of 3 sided dice, a few 4 sided dice and couple of 6 sided dice and 1 @ 20 sided.
Most for the trash is on the 3 sided die and even if you get a 4, 6 or 20 sided die you can still roll the trash if you get a 1 - 3. inorder to get your +2 you need the 20 sided die and then you have to roll a 10 or greater to get that +2 and then you need to have rolled a 14 for it to be +2 dev blaze.
Welcome to weighted rolls
4 Likes
This is how it works:
System recognizes that everyone tempers the same way depending on Rob’s build.
System deters against rolling the same as Rob.
You get robbed.
5 Likes
Thats exactly how it feels. And I don’t like it.
I was trying to roll vortex size today. It’s 1/3 for each try. I didn’t get for 10 tries. It’s like %1.5 probability.
Item was the only+4 to crushing hands I could found so far.
Really fascinating system. It’s nothing, I’ll just spent another 150 hours looking for it.
I made clear last season allready that tempering/MW is just not well designed.
And here we are, yet again. It’s kinda getting frustrating, and wonder if they even check the feedback.
Let me give you some math let’s say that there is a tempering result that is 1 in a million and there are 100000 people playing and each one tempers 10 items that right there is a million tempers and mathematically someone it getting that 1 in a million outcome and then they come here to complain
Guess what the fact that this bad outcome happened to you sucks but it’s not evidence of weighted results especially when we have evidence that the rolls arnt weighted it’s just how probability works
You were making an important point about random independent events, but your math was wrong. It is actually less likely than your calculation suggests.
From ChatGPT:
- Probability of a specific number on one roll:
A standard die has 6 faces, so the probability of rolling any specific number (for example, a 4) on a single roll is:1/6
- Probability of the same number 6 times in a row:
Since each roll is independent, the probability of rolling the same number (any specific number) on each of the 6 rolls is the product of the probabilities for each individual roll. So, the probability is: (1/6)^6=1/46656
Thus, the chance of a single die landing on the same number 6 times in a row is 1/46656, or about 0.0000214, or approximately 0.00214%.
I would actually prefer it if it were not fully random and independent.
Since very often I am trying to double or triple MW an affix, I would prefer if the weighting were such that:
- If I reset after the 4th MW, the game interprets that as not wanting that affix MW’d and slightly lowers the chance it is MW’s on the next 4th round pick.
- If I continue to MW after the 4th and 8th attempt, the game interprets that MW’d affix as favored and slightly raises the chance it’s MW’d again.
except that calculation is for him to get his desired roll 6 times in a roll if it was a temper with 6 outcomes. he doesnt understand math though.
As much as we like to pile on blizz on the many different issues, i dont think there is any foul play here. It’s just the nature of probability.
I have done alot of masterworking this season on legendary items, looking to crit the same affix 3 times in a row. Guess what, i have some items, that took upward of more than 100 tries, while i had a couple that crit all 3 in less than 25 times. From a statistical standpoint, we are talking of 1/5 * 1/5 * 1/5 = 0.8% to achieve 3 crits on the same affix.
On average, we should achieve this once in every 100 attempts.
The only… the absolutely ONLY feedback they care about is XPAC sales and purchases in the cash shop. Nothing else counts as feedback. They’ve got their metrics on every last bit of player frustration and think “engagement” is some magical way to sell more stuff.
You gotta believe that there was a meeting at some point that went like… “We see an average of a 1% increase in cash shop sales for every hour a player is in game. Let’s devise a way to make them waste a hundred hours or more and we could double our MTX!”
If you understand how mathematics behind statistic, every roll of dice is independence from each other. In mathematics, the probability of an event will fully express with a sufficient large sample size. Like if you roll a dice for 600 times, you will get 100 times of each number in average. If you are not getting that, try roll 6,000 or 6 million times. The end result will always show the true probability of each number appear on the dice.
It has been long known affixes in Enchantment is weighted. I guess you didn’t play the game at launch, I don’t want to view your profile.
This option is weighted against you. I dont agree this should be the case but stuff like INT and LIFE has more of a chance to roll along with others we dont know. +passives / skills are a very hard roll to hit on amulets / gloves.
Which also means you should do research whenever you get one of these items to sell it.
A simple +4 GA Quill glove was selling for 5 to 10B gold as example. The amulets with Brilliance and %armor or DEX% were hitting 50-100B.
Yall know it’s not an equal chance right?
They purposely weigh the odds on priority stats like plus to skills lower than things like resists on armor for example.
It’s the scam. Keeps you in the casino. Keeps you playing. Keeps you chasing.
It’s even better when you get the temper you want 6 times in a row at bare minimum. Straight up trolling you at that point.