[Bug] +Lucky Hit Chance % is multiplicative instead of additive

Barbarian
1

For example a ring with +3.5% Lucky Hit Chance as an affix, should additively increase an abilities lucky hit chance by 3.5%. Example Whirlwind has a 20% chance to trigger a lucky hit as its base. Put on the ring you should have a 23.5% lucky hit chance, + means add.

However, if you put on the ring +3.5% lucky hit chance makes whirlwind 20.07% (Displaying as 21%, lucky hit on skills does not do decimal places).

There is absolutely no chance that this is intended. Lucky Hit Chance is effectively a broken stat due to this error.

2

it actual says it on stat page, each added instance of lucky hit chance is a separate chance, its not addictive like you said.

so if you have 20% from ww, 9% from 1 ring, and 10% from gloves.

each hit will calculate if lucky hit was achieved for each instance of your separate lucky hit chances.

i could be wrong though prolly am.

3

I believe you are conflating an ability’s innate chance to trigger a lucky hit (This is the category modified by a piece of gear with +lucky hit chance on it), with lucky hit effects, like anemia for example.

I believe the line that says “If you have multiple lucky hit effects, their probabilities roll independently” means the effect portion. As in anemia, concussion, shared misery, steadfast berserker, etc.

So whirlwind has a 20% chance to lucky hit, that means each time it deals damage that damage rolls 1-100. If the roll ends up between 81 and 100 a lucky hit secondary roll is activated for every lucky hit effect you have. Meaning we have turned on the lucky hit slot machine now every effect you have rolls and can occur. Every single lucky hit effect you have equipped can happen on the same lucky hit if the stars align. Just a few moments ago I procced both anemia and shared misery on the same individual lunging strike. Which means that lunging strike was a lucky hit, and that both of those two lucky hits rolled as active.

I personally run 5 concurrent lucky hits.

2 Likes
4

I honestly thought it was additive like crit. Why else would you waste an attribute slot. If this is not a bug there are a lot of “Lucky Hit:” aspects that should be buffed IMO. I get some things being poor meta choices but give us a reason for them to exist at all.

1 Like
5

given this logic, then it should be akin to additive (as long as there are few lucky hit chances to add together).

This kind of questions comes up in math probabilities classes a lot e.g. if coins were flipped independently, what is the chance that at least 1 of them will be heads.

Using ur example of 20% from ww, 9% from 1 ring, and 10% from gloves. What’s the chance that at least 1 will proc a lucky hit?

One way is to calculate the chances that it will not proc at all and 100% minus that. So it’s like 1- (0.8 x 0.91 x 0.9), which gives 0.3448

Back to OP’s post, 1 - (0.8 x 0.965) would give 0.228 or near 23%.

edit: could be related to a post about equipping topaz on weapon deducts dmg instead of adding dmg. So… it’s a bug and somewhere in the code instead of adding, things are getting deducted.

6

well, your whirlwind lucky hit chance increase exactly by 3.5% which is 20.07%. It’s just a balance thing.

7

My main issue with lucky hit chance is how contrived the math is for calculating when it procs. Take Temerity for example with its 5% chance on lukcy hit to heal. Now say you have your 20% lucky hit chance on whirlwind.

Over time with the law of averages that means essentially 1 out of every 5 hits of whirlwind will be a lucky hit. That 1 hit only has a 5% chance to proc the Temerity heal. On average you would need 20 lucky hits in order to get that heal to proc which equates to roughly 100 hits per proc in this case.

Further complicating the issue is how it calculates on a skill like this, is it per damage tick or per enemy hit? My experience and how you will see it with aoe skills that critically hit is that it’s calculated per instance (per tick) and not calculated per enemy. I used to see this a lot when playing pulverize on Druid, either all the hits were critical strikes or none of them were.

It was similar on Rogue with flurry but the calculations were 4x instances with 10% critical chance. Players seemed to think it was 40% for some reason, 4 instance of 10% means more chances to proc at the 10% rate and not 40% flat chance to proc. This is what made the nerf to their siphoning strikes so bad. Which was already based on a chance roll for critical, when they added the lucky hit component it became a chance or a chance of a chance and completely gutted the skill.

One of three things needs to happen to make lucky hits worth it. If the calculations are to remain the same with a chance of a chance and values are not adjusted than those skills modified by lucky hits need to have a sharp increase in their impact. Yes you could proc 3x in a row and be OP or you could go 2 minutes without a single proc which is an eternity in this game.

Option 2 would be to bump the base lucky hit chance of all skills by a significant margin and leave the numbers where they are. Fishing for procs can be a miserable experience at times. A nice bump to see more procs happen more often would make the game exciting.

Option 3 is to take the lucky hit condition off skills entirely and the affixes you see for 5% chance are what you get. This would also mean dropping the gear affix for lucky hit damage. 1 less affix in the pool when upgrading gear is a good thing.

This percentage of a percentage overly contrived math has got to stop. If Diablo 4 is meant to appeal to the casual ARPG player then stop making the math overly complicated. The player who only has 2-3 hours at most per week should be able to read a skill “5% lucky hit to heal” and say hey that sounds pretty good and not have to actually realize that 5% chance is actually only 1% chance.

Not everything in the game needs to have this complicated lottery system attached to it. The gear lottery is bad enough without adding the element of skill lottery into the equation.

Welcome to the Diablo 4 Casino, Hotel and Casino. (Yes casino 2x because we prefer our players to be lucky rather than good!)

2 Likes
8

Not defending the concept, cause I also think it’s overly complicated, but that’s not so easy because Lucky Hit is apparently also supposed to be a build thing. A skill like WW would be OP with “5% chance to heal” because it hits so much and such a wide area. So to balance it, WW has a lower Lucky Hit chance. On the other hand, there are skills that are just meant for you to base your Lucky Hit builds on, like Rogue’s Penetrating Shot that you can build up to 100% with Paragon alone. They made it an element of balance, so they can’t squash those two casinos together now.

I don’t quite agree with that sentiment actually. I look at Diablo as a game of statistics, big numbers all around. When something has a % chance of happening on an event that’s a core of the combat gameplay pillar, it means that you can calculate its impact on your playstyle and adapt your strategy accordingly. Lucky Hit just means that you can’t ever choose the exact moment a thing happens. Heart of Ignoring Pain for instance you can still treat as 15% independent damage reduction (or double that if mobs don’t hit you over the amount that IP heals), even though it isn’t that, because the event (getting hit) happens so often that you can trust statistics to kick in.

Basically my point is that it’s not at all like sitting in a casino and pulling at the one-armed bandit, instead it’s like owning a casino and setting up the machines so that within millions of games your visitors play every day, you - the house - will on average always win in the end.

9

I just don’t find the overly contrived math to be player friendly. I honestly think that lucky hit builds should be more of a thing, but with the chances so low they are virtually unappealing to most players. The average person doesn’t have time to parse all the math to understand if it’s worth it to take which is why the most popular (and most powerful) builds take advantage over the flat increases to the main damage multipliers.

Statistically if those luck hit builds performed near the level of those flat chance builds with the occasional 1 in 10000 spike to outperform them than it would be great for build diversity. What you have now is a wide disparity in the margins between the builds with the 1 in one million spikes where they outperform in very niche situations. I mean play how you want and all that, but prepare to be disappointed.

The gambling on gambling in my post refers to the loot mechanics of the game in general. With so many bad affixes in the pool it takes forever to find gear with 2-3 desired affixes that you can live with which you would gamble one of the others with a reroll where maybe you get lucky in one shot or maybe you roll worse affixes 9 times in a row. Then you roll that gear past a break point and can end up with worse stats. Or you pick up i800+ gear with worse stats than your i700 gear.

It’s mind boggling and in true casino fashion the house always wins.

1 Like
10

Procs in games with multiple types of damage always have these issues. Some games (like city of heroes) used to have a formula that reduced proc chance based on area of effect size / targets. The result of that was probably what you’d expect – single target abilities were built with procs and aoe were not, because it wasn’t as reliable

Anyways, it took forever before I even began to understand what it was talking about with lucky hit – realizing it was some random “this is the hit that can proc your lucky hit procs.” It’s definitely not the best way to deal with this.

In fact, I think itd be more intuitive to just have the standard “5% chance to heal” and then just have abilities that have “this ability lucky hits 25% less often” if theyre worked about certain abilities being too good for lucky hit.

Outside of that, the stat is one of those stats you just can’t even tell if it’s doing anything lol

1 Like
11

Lucky Hit as a neat bonus is fun. Lucky Hit as build-definining is not. RNG is not your friend. Would you rather a 20% chance to proc Berserking or everytime you use a Skill, you gain Berserking?

The Penalty Modifier that they have assigned some skills also does not make sense. Why have HoTA at 50% but Upheaval is 25%? Double-Swing has a higher Lucky Hit at 30% when DS can be spammed and can easily build with Lucky Hit and 1H Maces. I get the idea about putting different penalties to Lucky Hit, but they could have just put ICDs on the procs and the Lucky Hit proc chance would be additive and easy to determine since it resides with the Proc itself only.

Some Lucky Hit is so absurdly low of a Chance to be thought of as pointless. Having a 5% Lucky Hit to Heal you a portion of your life is like, what? Even if it was 5% actual, it would be situational and RNG. In reality, the 5% is like 2%. There is a chance it procs when I am or near full HP. The likelihood it will proc when you need it to is meh.

1 Like
12

Actually I’m using a 20% Lucky Hit to extend Berserking and I’m fine, it’s reliable.

Cause Upheaval is AoE, meaning it will have a lot of dmg procs that could Lucky Hit. Same logic like what @seresibyl was mentioning about City of Heroes actually.

That is the point of Lucky Hit. Diablo is a numbers game and the things you want to proc WILL happen, if you build properly, in a reliable and predictable manner. To balance how strong those effects are, however, you cannot choose precisely when they happen. You don’t like it, fine, don’t build it. But Lucky Hit is yet another legitimate way to build your toon in this game.