80% of what? of 0.0001%? Is this bugged or smth because the numbers doesnt make sense, killed bosses 10 times in a row with 1 or 0 Belial spawns
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After swearing I’d save mats for later to see if this was adjusted, I hit a few whispers tonight so I farmed a few bosses and hit a hot streak where the little guy started appearing. Probably just got lucky.
People still dont understand RNG
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That is not even close to correct in this case. I too had that option selected with ashes and I ran many lair bosses. I saw Belial exactly twice. I don’t care how many times you flip a coin at 80% chance for heads to turn up you are not going to see tails that often. This is flat out bugged.
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What if the chance is 10% and with 80% increase its 18%?
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The first boss runs this season were Varshan. Belial showed up probably 4 times out of 6. Interesting because now, he’s only been around once in a boss series.
It’s not a flat 80% chance for him to show up. It’s displayed at +80%. To get the actual number you would need to know Belials default spawn rate, which for all we know could be 5%.
In that case it would bump up his ambush rate to 9%. Blizzard is always sneaky and never reveals the base chance.
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They’re also really bad about discerning additive or multiplicative. They always default to additive, unless it’s some jank reason they just felt everyone would assume it’s multiplicative. Like with ashes … all of that stuff was additive from the start … they had to go out of their way to make it multiplicative. There’s no reason to assume it’s different in this case with their track record.
They also entirely have the option to put + and x next to the percentages… but for some reason decide not to. The base rate was also 50% on the PTR …so adding or multiplying 80% on top of that should have near 100% chance in either case.
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Same here, but he dropped a mythic, so I’m not complaining
OK a real world anecdotal example: I just ran Zir 20 times at T3. Belial showed up twice so that suggests around a 10% chance. I can’t stress enough how useless those runs were. I got no mythics and in fact no gear at all worth using. Also no leg runes. WTF are you thinking Blizz? How long do you think people will keep grinding for exactly zero results?
its not 80%. Its chance to appear is increased by 80%.
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To me it seems like its around 10% default spawn chance. So with the 80% increase it would be 18%.
So if you do 100 bosses you will see Belial 18 times ON AVERAGE. Small sample sizes will vary, you can get lucky or unlucky.
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Until Vegas closes - no, they don’t.
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Concur here.
20 Belials
after some bosses by now id agree that it feels like its somewhere in the 10% area, yea.
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…so it could be tested.
I got like 4 Mythics on PTR, too. Pretty sure they weren’t Live numbers, rofl
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Bruh i will tell you a secret
80% of a Random Number Generator is still going to be Random.
Fml 
And people like you don’t understand how statistics and probability work. You think handwaving away concerns with “it’s RNG” is a magic “I win” button.
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Bro i studied biostatistics at uni many years. Trying to teach me probabilities hahhah
Of course you did. Everyone on the internet is a scholar on the current topic.
And if by chance you did, you should get a refund, you didn’t learn anything. Yes, theoretically you can have a run of bad luck on something that is truly random (nothing in this game is). But the probability of that run continuing drops with every roll.
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