A day or two ago, I opened three caches and nothing happened/dropped.
I had just completed a few main story quests and the red note stating I hadn’t completed a specific quest or progressed far enough had disappeared so I attempted to open them and they just vanished. At least one of the caches was for runes (I think all three were) and the required quest was “… Faith …” (I don’t remember the full title) – at least one was from the Midwinter stuff because it had the purple marker on it.