Your effective crit multiplier is:
CHC/100*(1 + CHD/100) + (1 - CHC/100)*1 = 1 + CHC/100*CHD/100
(i.e. the probability you crit times the damage bonus when you crit plus the probability you don’t crit times your baseline damage of 1, then just simplify to an easier form)
For damage range, just add up all the values of damage you have, and multiply the weapon portion by the % damage on your weapon. The shard % damage adds to the % damage roll on your weapon.
total damage = (weapon damage + shard flat damage) * (1 + weapon % damage / 100 + shard % damage / 100) + source damage + jewelry damage
To get your effective damage factor, holding everything else constant (e.g. mainstat, set/gear/skill/gem multipliers), just multiply those two things together and see what gives you the higher number.
So for example, with 64 CHC/500 CHD baseline (max rolls in all slots and a 150 CHD shard without Witching Hour), a primal wand (193+1560 min, 357+1940 max) with 10% damage, and a primal source (485 min, 600 max), you’d have:
15% damage shard:
((193 + 357 + 1560 + 1940 + 300)*(1+0.1+0.15) + (485+600))/2*(1+0.64*5) = 13697.25
10% chc shard:
((193 + 357 + 1560 + 1940 + 300)*(1+0.1) + (485+600))/2*(1+0.74*5) = 13794.5
In this situation, 10% chc has a slight edge (but 8% chc would be worse). Which is best will vary depending on your damage range rolls and crit values on your current gear. The difference should be pretty small.
You could also just import your profile into https://maxroll.gg/d3planner
, that might make answering these sorts of questions easier.