Toxic D2 Purists

[MDK22-1519]

I am against ploot. I have explained how the math is wrong from the hop that MicroRNA used because it is based on a diminishing return ie you cant land in the same iteration over and over. You have the same chance of landing in the same game with the same people over and over again. I have had this happen 3x randomnly in a row and 5x randomnly in a row in real life. It does not include the bias of people knowingly avoiding toxic players, sticking to good games, or to friends either.

The main push for ploot has been pick it. Since the servers on bnet are where your character information is going to be stored ie the comment you never have to worry about saving your characters. You can check click rates and pick up speeds so banning is easily done. Also storing the item information on the bnet servers then packet stuffing doesn’t work either so that pick it is gone. Storing those files on the bnet servers is essential to preventing most exploits. It will definitely not stop them all though.

[MicroRNA-1507]

@MDK22-1519

I have explained how the math is wrong from the hop

The math is correct with the assumptions as stated. If you encounter 21 distinct players and overall there is a 3% chance that a player is a cheater and there is random assortment, then there a 47.3% change of encountering at least one cheater in 21 players.

@MDK22-1519

You have the same chance of landing in the same game with the same people over and over again. I have had this happen 3x randomnly in a row and 5x randomnly in a row in real life.

This also means that you can run into the same cheater over and over again.

@MDK22-1519

It does not include the bias of people knowingly avoiding toxic players, sticking to good games, or to friends either.

Correct, but first you need to identify the toxic players and sticking to good games. If you are sticking with friends the loot allocation system has little relevance.

@MDK22-1519

The main push for ploot has been pick it.

For some. There is also the issue of immersion, fairness, ranged vs melee builds, and issues related to differential ping due to physical distance to servers and internet quality…

@MDK22-1519

You can check click rates and pick up speeds so banning is easily done.

This is highly unlikely, since we know that botting still occurs in diablo 3 with modern battlenet.

[MDK22-1519]

@MicroRNA-1507

The math is correct with the assumptions as stated. If you encounter 21 distinct players and overall there is a 3% chance that a player is a cheater and there is random assortment, then there a 47.3% change of encountering at least one cheater in 21 players.

The binomial distribution is frequently used to model the number of successes in a sample of size n drawn with replacement from a population of size N

You are not replacing the population each itteration it is a constant. Otherwise the population would be a diminishing value. This is why your math is wrong.

You have a total number of players and you are taking 8 players in and out of that same base of players. You could argue the base of players changes by people joining and leaving other games but, it does not do that in the way a Binomial Distribution works. It also will average out to a certain number of actual people always being in limbo between being in a game and out of a game.

This is why your math does not work.

@MicroRNA-1507

This also means that you can run into the same cheater over and over again.

Yes you can and as annoying as that may be it has happened to me before as well. But, as has already been covered over and over there is not getting around this without large injections of cash.

@MicroRNA-1507

For some. There is also the issue of immersion, fairness, ranged vs melee builds, and issues related to differential ping due to physical distance to servers and internet quality…

Me not picking up items that a monster drops ruins immersion. Me having to get assigned items ruins immersion. Me or other people not being subjected to fatigue ruins immersion.

@MicroRNA-1507

This is highly unlikely, since we know that botting still occurs in diablo 3 with modern battlenet.

Pick it exists to pick up items yes. In FFA it is forced to move faster then a human which is the whole premise for detection like I just said. In ploot the bot can take it’s time it has no need to rush. So in this way ploot actually makes it worse for detection. Which is why I am confused you even brought it up.

[troyshaun-6994]

@MDK22-1519

Yes you can and as annoying as that may be it has happened to me before as well. But, as has already been covered over and over there is not getting around this without large injections of cash.

Bro did you see the retail price?
They are going to get large injections of cash, like i’d estimate hundreds of millions *that’s the limit of my math and it’s bad. Not to say they will use teh resources but they will have them.

[Shadow-126792]

@TanisGunthar-1764

@MicroRNA-1507

My sense of mods is that they are not going to let folks run their own servers. They have talked a little more about mods recently and have been evasive. I suspect that Blizzard will not let multiplayer D2R modded servers. I could be wrong but do not think so due to intellectual property and financial reasons.

I have a feeling of this too.

Given what little detail Blizzard has given so far for modding D2:R other than exposing hardcoded stuff to data (.txt [excel], etc… or whatever format they choose) and modular UI, it seems they don’t really intend on making the mod support for D2:R much more than just softmod stuff.

The problem with them potentially not adding enough mod support, is that people are going to end up eventually having to hack the game instead to get more advanced modding done, which in many interviews, Blizzard has shown to be mostly against and/or show no support for, which is going to be quite the blow for modding this game.

It’s not like it doesn’t make sense, modders would prefer not to have to hack their game in order to mod it, but given how things seem right now as far as modding support goes, that will probably end up being the only way we see more advanced modding take place for D2:R if at all.

I’m probably being pessimistic about all this, but there are modders I know that feel a similar way about it, I’d love for more flexibility with modding but Blizzard likely won’t give us that.

Note: Just wanted to put this info out there, for anyone hoping for features to be modded into the game.

[MicroRNA-1507]

@MDK22-1519

The binomial distribution is frequently used to model the number of successes in a sample of size n drawn with replacement from a population of size N

You get the same numbers with hypergeometric assuming a reasonable population size. Both calculations were shown in another thread.

@MDK22-1519

You are not replacing the population each itteration it is a constant. Otherwise the population would be a diminishing value. This is why your math is wrong.

A hypergeometric does exactly what you say. The percentage is the same to the first decimal place.

@MDK22-1519

This is why your math does not work.

You will notice I did not say binomial distribution and left it vague. Of note, 52.7% of never meeting a cheater among 21 ditinct players is the same mathematically as saying that 47.3% of the time that you will encounter at least one cheater (100%-52.7%=47.3%)

@Skimt-2626

The collection is hypergeometric, not binomial, but it doesn’t matter. The end result is the same.

Hypergeometric

If the population is 200000, and 6000 (3%) are cheaters. We grab a collection of 21 players, and look for 0 players who is cheating.

with(Statistics);
X := RandomVariable(Hypergeometric(200000, 6000, 21));
evalf(Probability(X = 0));

Result: 52.7%.

Binomial

Ignoring max population, we are looking for 21 legitimate players out of 21 players

.

with(Statistics);
X := RandomVariable(Binomial(21, 0.97));
Probability(X = 21);

Result: 52.7%

I disagree with pretty much everything MicroRNA says, always, but whether you like it or not, that’s university statistics for you

@MDK22-1519

Me not picking up items that a monster drops ruins immersion.

You do still pick up items from monster drops.

@MDK22-1519

Pick it exists to pick up items yes. In FFA it is forced to move faster then a human which is the whole premise for detection like I just said. In ploot the bot can take it’s time it has no need to rush. So in this way ploot actually makes it worse for detection. Which is why I am confused you even brought it up

It is a cat and mouse game. In FFA multiplayer loot, cheats are a problem because they can get a disproportionate amount of good drops. In personal loot, they can not. It is not about detection per se but the direct effect on legitimate players. The precise way Blizzard detects bots is obscure for obvious reasons. It is not simply clicking speed (I assume).

[MDK22-1519]

How much did they invest in r=d, how much is server costs, administration cost, tech support cost, etc. Then if the game runs for 20 years at 1-2 mill per year to stop out hackers, botters, cheaters. That is a large chunk of what is left.

[MDK22-1519]

@Skimt-2626

If the population is 200000, and 6000 (3%) are cheaters. We grab a collection of 21 players, and look for 0 players who is cheating.

There are only 8 players in a game here guys. Stop trying to puff the numbers up. You are looking for 8 out of 8 to not be cheating. There are not 21 players in the game.

[MicroRNA-1507]

@MDK22-1519

There are only 8 players in a game here guys. Stop trying to puff the numbers up. You are looking for 8 out of 8 to not be cheating. There are not 21 players in the game

In 3 eight player games (assuming no duplicate players), you will encounter 21 unique players. The chance all are legit are about ~50% with the assumptions listed.

If you consider any single eight player game, there is roughly a 19% chance that at least one player is a cheater assuming 3% cheat and random assortment.

[MDK22-1519]

That is not how that equation works. You should bump up the number of players to a realistic amount call it 5 mill. That equation takes all of that into account.

Suddenly you are going to be around 10-15% if not lower. This is my problem if you are going to do it go off known values not cherry picked or random values.

[MDK22-1519]

Picture of the math

https://ibb.co/k3YSDKn

0.05765 or 5.7% lets say 6%.

So 6% chance. With 5 million players at 3% hackers.

[MicroRNA-1507]

@MDK22-1519

Picture of the math

https://ibb.co/k3YSDKn

0.05765 or 5.7% lets say 6%.

So 6% chance. With 5 million players at 3% hackers

First, thanks for providing the picture so that I could figure out what was wrong… Simply put, you mis-entered the value of M. You put in 1,500,000 (=30%) that is why your distribution looks so funny relative to my expectations as shown in your graph image shown below.

The most common outcome if there is only 3% cheater is encountering 0 among 8 players. As your graph shows the most common outcome with M mis-entered among 8 players is 2 of 8 cheaters in your distribution. (This is due to 30% was entered) Moreover, you misread the output numbers provided. In your output from the applet, it is 94% of games that have at least 1 cheater when 30% cheat and you are assessing 8 unique players.

(P.S. I did not count in my calculation the you in you encounter players in an 8 player game, so I only look at 7 players.)

The other common sense way is if you know there is a 3% chance of an event happening and that are 8 trials, the odds of that event never happening in those 8 trials had to be much lower than 94%.

For 5 million players where 3% cheat and there is random assortment. To have a single game where the other 7 players in the game are legit can be calculated as follows:

The first player to be legit has the odds 4,850,000 in 5,000,000
The second player to be legit has the odds of 4,849,999 in 4,999,999
The third player to be legit has the odds of 4,849,998 in 4,999,998
The fourth player to be legit has the odds of 4,849,997 in 4,999,997
The fifth player to be legit has the odds of 4,849,996 in 4,999,996
The sixth player to be legit has the odds of 4,849,995 in 4,999,995
The seventh player to be legit has the odds of 4,849,994 in 4,999,994

Overall the odds that all 7 are legit is 80.798274%. This means that the odds that you encounter one or more cheats in a single 8 player game is 19.2% (or roughly 19% as I said in my prior post).

[Zax-11538]

@MicroRNA-1507

In personal loot, they can not.

Of course they can, they will just keep playing solo with ploot or not and still keep destroying economy.

[MicroRNA-1507]

@MicroRNA-1507

In FFA multiplayer loot, cheats are a problem because they can get a disproportionate amount of good drops. In personal loot, they can not.

You may want to quote a bit more to understand what precisely “they can not” refers to. The prior sentence informs. My statement was referring to the fact that cheats in FFA personal loot games get a disproportionate amount of good drops, thereby reducing how much loot legit players get in multiplayer games, and that can not happen in personal loot games beyond normal binomial variance.

In terms of bots playing solo, that can still happen now. The no drop chance in solo is higher than multiplayer that translates to less good gear for cheats. For modern battlenet, the /player function may not work in D2R so there is that.

[MDK22-1519]

@MicroRNA-1507

In terms of bots playing solo, that can still happen now. The no drop chance in solo is higher than multiplayer that translates to less good gear for cheats. For modern battlenet, the /player function may not work in D2R so there is that.

You think that botters haven’t made it so that they have other bots follow them into a game? There are botters running botted games with 6-7 other bots in them. It is not some huge barrier to entry. They literally run like this in D2 as it stands right now in public bchaos runs.

@MicroRNA-1507

You may want to quote a bit more to understand what precisely “they can not” refers to. The prior sentence informs. My statement was referring to the fact that cheats in FFA personal loot games get a disproportionate amount of good drops, thereby reducing how much loot legit players get in multiplayer games, and that can not happen in personal loot games beyond normal binomial variance.

This only works if pick it works. Which I just told you that pick it actually helps them catch botters in FFA.

[Zax-11538]

@MicroRNA-1507

My statement was referring to the fact that cheats in FFA personal loot games get a disproportionate amount of good drops, thereby reducing how much loot legit players get in multiplayer games, and that can not happen in personal loot games beyond normal binomial variance.

I understand but if everyone will play under ploot, they will still get more items because bots can run 24/7. Do you want to force ploot on everyone or it will be optional btw?

[MicroRNA-1507]

@MDK22-1519

You think that botters haven’t made it so that they have other bots follow them into a game? There are botters running botted games with 6-7 other bots in them.

When this happens, the loot system does not matter. My concern relates to the effect n legit players in game where legit and iilegit both are in party. When separated, the cheats are not taking good drops from legit players.

@MDK22-1519

This only works if pick it works

True

@MDK22-1519

Which I just told you that pick it actually helps them catch botters in FFA.

Probably not. Bots in D3 are typically optimized for efficiency and click quickly and still exist.

Lastly, did you see the issue with the math (you entered essentially 30% and not 3% in that applet)?

[Zax-11538]

Do you want to force ploot on everyone or will it be optional?

[MicroRNA-1507]

@Zax-11538

I understand but if everyone will play under ploot, they will still get more items because bots can run 24/7. Do you want to force ploot on everyone or it will be optional btw?

Optional either at game creation or character creation. In a particular game session, there will be no mix-and-match on this.

I do not think it is right to force my personal preference on others in this matter and I hope others feel the same.

@Zax-11538

I understand but if everyone will play under ploot, they will still get more items because bots can run 24/7.

This isn’t true. Bots can run 24/7 now and get all good gear in single player games. Likewise as MDK22 pointed out if the botter is multiboxing, they can get all gear (or disproportionately high) in multiplayer games in the current system, when playing with legit players.

Counterintuitively, for legit games personal loot multiplayer games will be slightly harder to gear up and end up with less items in the trade economy in coomparison to FFA.

[Zax-11538]

@MicroRNA-1507

I do not think it is right to force my personal preference on others in this matter and I hope others feel the same.

@MicroRNA-1507

they can get all gear (or disproportionately high) in multiplayer games in the current system, when playing with legit players.

But they will get all gear even with ploot implemented optionaly.

Lets say i am botter right? Well i will set bot to keep doing public chaos and baalruns. My bot will again get most of the loot even when optional ploot implemented in D2R. I just choose to use ffa loot option for my(bot) games.