Toxic D2 Purists

[MicroRNA-1507]

@MDK22-1519

The binomial distribution is frequently used to model the number of successes in a sample of size n drawn with replacement from a population of size N

You get the same numbers with hypergeometric assuming a reasonable population size. Both calculations were shown in another thread.

@MDK22-1519

You are not replacing the population each itteration it is a constant. Otherwise the population would be a diminishing value. This is why your math is wrong.

A hypergeometric does exactly what you say. The percentage is the same to the first decimal place.

@MDK22-1519

This is why your math does not work.

You will notice I did not say binomial distribution and left it vague. Of note, 52.7% of never meeting a cheater among 21 ditinct players is the same mathematically as saying that 47.3% of the time that you will encounter at least one cheater (100%-52.7%=47.3%)

@Skimt-2626

The collection is hypergeometric, not binomial, but it doesn’t matter. The end result is the same.

Hypergeometric

If the population is 200000, and 6000 (3%) are cheaters. We grab a collection of 21 players, and look for 0 players who is cheating.

with(Statistics);
X := RandomVariable(Hypergeometric(200000, 6000, 21));
evalf(Probability(X = 0));

Result: 52.7%.

Binomial

Ignoring max population, we are looking for 21 legitimate players out of 21 players

.

with(Statistics);
X := RandomVariable(Binomial(21, 0.97));
Probability(X = 21);

Result: 52.7%

I disagree with pretty much everything MicroRNA says, always, but whether you like it or not, that’s university statistics for you

@MDK22-1519

Me not picking up items that a monster drops ruins immersion.

You do still pick up items from monster drops.

@MDK22-1519

Pick it exists to pick up items yes. In FFA it is forced to move faster then a human which is the whole premise for detection like I just said. In ploot the bot can take it’s time it has no need to rush. So in this way ploot actually makes it worse for detection. Which is why I am confused you even brought it up

It is a cat and mouse game. In FFA multiplayer loot, cheats are a problem because they can get a disproportionate amount of good drops. In personal loot, they can not. It is not about detection per se but the direct effect on legitimate players. The precise way Blizzard detects bots is obscure for obvious reasons. It is not simply clicking speed (I assume).