[Theory] Auction House in RoS

General Discussion
203

Right here with your own words you are stating that all areas of rng is bugged. I have told you before that if they are we would see it plain as day. It would be common place. Not some outlier cases that you mentioned earlier and no, the randomness of the gem levels is working as intended.

So the Black Market wouldn’t even try to make money off of D3 if your deity exists as you envision it. Where players wouldn’t even dream of buying gear for real money from the black market. I say that they will and it won’t be all that hard. All that would be needed would be needed would be for the person that wants to buy the item they would need the gold to do it. That one item could be priced well beyond what a normal player could accomplish. But since it is an agreed upon price the person gets to the gold that they need. Then they go to the AH deity and buy the item with the gold that they earned.

Players might even turn to botting to get the gold that they need to buy the items. When they have all of the gold that they need to buy the items then they just buy the items for real money and give the gold to the ones that have them in the AH. Again the AH acting as a psuedo trade window for the trade to be made. Player that bought the items for real money gets his items and the player (s) gets the gold.

Look it is highly unlikely that the black market is able to take advantage of a two hour trade window when an item drops. There would have to be incredible luck for them to be able to take advantage of it to make any kind of money. Further the black market only has services that are quite risky that won’t net them the same amount of money as selling items and gold would do.

How much money do you think that the black market would lose if WoW’s gold was BoA. I do believe that they would lose a bundle of gold if that happened in WoW.

No doubt market law says that if you cannot move your inventory you will have to slash prices to get it moving. So the idea that players that have botted to sell items for real money will hold onto them for years is insane and you know it. They will want them to move quickly so they can get more items to sell. A business doesn’t make money without selling something to someone.

So you really still believe that a store would keep opening its doors every day even though no one has bought any of the items in the shop for many long years. They wouldn’t be able to stay in business if that happened and you know it.

You want to ignore what I am saying even though it is the real truth. You want to believe just because you cannot trade real money for items using your version of your deity that it won’t happen. You are more naive than you think I am if you really believe that as fact.

I have said the deal would work like the following.

Player A has the gold to buy a GG primal Flavor of Time. He goes to website B and buys it for real money. They tell him the person that has the item that he wants and he goes and buys the item from him for gold. The item in question would be priced well beyond what most players could accomplish. So it would be way overpriced according to the community. But both sides don’t care about that all they care about is selling the items for real money.

Heck they could even work out a deal when to post the actual item he is buying at a time when he will be playing. They might even use the friends system to let each other know that they are online. Now that both are online it is real easy for them to make the trade using the AH and the in game currency of gold.

You want to ignore what I have to say even though it is the truth. Why I have no idea, maybe you are the type of person that cannot say when they are wrong.

If the demand is high but the price is too high then the items won’t move. With the limited stash space they would become FS instead of being sold to someone else.

I am saying what some botters would do. They would bot to get them for the purposes of selling them for real money, even though you want to ignore me on this point.

You actually believe that players wouldn’t buy things from the black market for real money. I do believe that they do just that and I do believe that even PoE does suffer some from the black market. The only reason it does suffer more is because of the fact that they have more than one currency and currency is used to craft items.

I have already said look above at what I said earlier.

You really think that the black market would post its items on the AH long before they are sold for real money. That would be like saying a business would make all of their items for free before they would sell a single item. They would only post the items when they are sold for real money and the person wouldn’t buy the item till they have to gold to purchase it.

But the problem then the economy of D3 wouldn’t accurately reflect the true value of the item in gold due to it taking longer to find than it took to get the gold.

Also you forget one other factor in your equation. A lot of players use gold for empowering GRs and I don’t think that they would like it that they would have to farm tons of gold to be able to not only empower GRs but also for the AH.

Oh so there was a big difference between those that found got all of the BiS gear in vanilla D3 compared to those that didn’t. Nope, there was no difference. You could still complete hell difficulty with any of the classes if you had the right amount of stats on your gear. I ought to know I used AH rare gears that would be trash compared to all BiS perfectly rolled gear to beat Inferno for all classes.

Even if you did fix the holes if players still don’t want the AH you will not change their minds on it, cased closed court is adjourned.

You are day dreaming, just because trade is returning to D4 doesn’t mean that your deity is returning to this game.

204

Fixed it for ya :kissing_smiling_eyes: :kissing_smiling_eyes: :kissing_smiling_eyes:

205

As I understand, you are not programmer, so you even do not imagine what bugs can be. That’s why you think that can be only bugs that affect all and always. Such bugs are the simplest ones (to find and fix). They are not problem at all. Let’s consider another case - with the gems devoured by the cabinet. Is there such bug? Yes, of course. Does it happen always and for all? Nope. Is it fixed? Nope. Why? Because devs can’t reproduce it by themself and hence they can’t fix it by themself. Exactly, fans already reproduced it and provided the appropriate video, but this bug is not fixed yet. Why? I do not know - may be devs can’t find the appropriate pieces of the code to fix it, may be devs just do not have a time for this.

The bugs due to bugged pseudo random are the same ones and we saw already evidence of this moment: “pity timer” (i.e. scratch instead of fixing original reason of the bug) and “bug with recepies” (as I understand, they fixed this bug just by removing random at all - i.e. instead of obtaining recepies with some probability in the range with the lower bound = 0, they provided always 2+ recepies, choosing them again by random, but in some range with the fixed lower bound; it is the same situation like your one with random in damage from mobs - it is also random, but random inside some range with two boundaries - lower and upper one, though you think that the damage of mobs does not have boundaries at all; you are wrong if you really think so). With such explicit proofs of existing of bugged pseudo random (especially, in the last case with recepies) no one will have doubts about this. Of course, excepting fanboys of Blizzard.

Very simple question: is 20 fails in a row on 60% the intended behavior? :wink:
I think that devs have another opinion due to their words about “pity timer”.

Exactly. I do not see the reasons for appearing of Black Markets because anyone can buy gold officially and - moreover - there is not possibility to transfer gold by another ways than using AH. As I understand, you again introduced into the game the features which are not the part of AH at all and will not returning at all (possibility to transfer items or gold using 1-to-1 trading window; I did not return it at all just because it is hole and I said about this in the first post of this thread while now we have 200+ posts in it).

As I said already in the first post, they can try to botting to get the gold, but they will understand very fast that bot can’t help them to obtain so huge amounts of gold. Ones that tried to do this in classic, obtained such knowledge very fast and did not do this at all.

Again your dreams. They can’t farm 1015 of gold in one day / week / month / 2 months. But anyone who will lucky to obtain GG item will obtain such amount of gold after selling of such one item. You again forgot about AH in classic.

Nope. There are biggest obstacles to do this. I explained this moment.

Nice gift. Exactly, I do not hear about Black Markets that use this “hole” to make real money even on GG items. They just do not do this because they have biggest obstacles for this while - by your usual opinion - they MUST use this “hole” because they can easily farm very big amount of top primals in the limited amount of time. They can’t do this that’s why they do not use this “hole” at all. As I said, very good gift for me.

Gold in RoS is BoA and it will be BoA even with RMAH.

I do not know such Market Law and I have big doubts of its existence.

Really? I saw this situation on the AH of classic at its end when players posted on AH very big amount of unique items by very low prices. As I understand, you skipped this moment at all.

For what purpose do they need to sell items quickly and massively?

It is AH, it is not Stock Exchange. AH is about obtaining needed gear or items (limited amount of them). It is not about making real money on it. You again make mistakes when you forgot about the true purpose of AH.

You forgot about seasons (every time from the start every 3-4 months). You forgot about rotation of players (NS). You forgot about classic.

Water. Ignored. I need your arguments, not your emotions.

Why can’t this player A just to buy this GG item on AH if he has even gold for this? For what purpose must he have a risks with Black Markets and to buy anything for real money instead of to buy needed GG item just for gold?

Step by step. How will these 2 players transfer gold and item between them? And why need player A info from third party resource to obtain the item that can be bought on AH without all these tricks?

Really? And where will your player A take so huge amount of gold (say, 1017)? Just draws it? :smile: :woman_facepalming:

It does not matter that they do not care about this, because they MUST find somehow very huge amount of gold for this purpose. And because it is impossible, all your constructions instantly collapse like a house of cards.

Devs of PoE (and their fans) can’t provide such system, but your third party resources will provide it without any efforts. Nice.
And yes, your magic system can’t help them at all if they always do not have intersections in their life time.

Water. Ignored.

Wow, your dreams about rains of top primals are played bad joke with you, because you need now more stash space for top primals than you have now. Nice. Hm, why do in the classic players not have problems with the limited stash space?

Both things are bounded together. They (botters) are not unique suppliers of GG items. In the classic there was possibility to provide monopoly on GG items (by their selling and using them on Black Markets with transfering than using 1-to-1 Trading Window), now it is impossible to have such monopoly on such items (and to transfer them too). You prefer to ignore the facts that collapse your imagine picture. Also as other AH-haters.

Yeap. And they provided info about big amount of deceivers.

You forgot about this:

Your GG item will lie on AH at least during 24 hours and anyone who will try to outbid the bid is the very big problem for your lovers of Black Markets because this means that your Player B will must provide additional gold for your Player A in the limited amount of time otherwise your Player A will just lose his real money and your Player B will obtain in addition additional amount of gold = difference between initial and the last price. The best way to check the “human nature” in your understanding of it. That’s why no one will use your Black Markets while there is possibility to buy anything for real money (I mean - to buy gold for real money and than anything one want) officially.

You imagine problems from air. Market Law states about the balance between supply and demand. That’s all. The TRUE price of item is the one which shows this balance (which is equal to the appropriate price). And this price accurately reflects the true price of the item in gold due to reaching of the balance I am talking about. The higher price will lead to unclaimedness of item. The lower price will lead to higher demand (more than 1 player will have the needed gold to buy such item).
And you make big mistake if you think that these 2 parameters - the average time which is needed to farm the item in the game and the time which is needed to farm the appropriate amount of gold to buy it - are independent. They are dependent.

I said already: the gold that they farm from the ground is nothing in comparison with the true prices of rare items. So you again imagine one more problem which is not problem at all.
And yes, +1 try for GR is also really NOTHING.

You again provided counterargument against yourself (one more gift for me), while I meant only that in the classic it was impossible to separate ones that played with AH and ones that played without AH. Also as now it is impossible to separate ones that play only solo and ones that play in groups but for some purposes have records in solo rankings too.

No problems: do not like AH - do not use it. :wink:

Yes, but it is the great argument against AH-haters that repeated 5+ years about impossibility of returning of AH in “any shape or form” (and they still continue repeat this) while in D4 devs returned trade (the worst form of AH).

Moreover, no one AH-hater (including yourself) can explain this “big difference” between trade and AH (in favor of the former). As I think, you saw many holes of such trade.

As I remember forum rules, your post is the violation of it. Reported.

206

The ARPGs like Diablo are all about finding the loot yourself. Having AH instead of traditional trading gives a way too convenient way to circumvent the entire loot hunt. At least in traditional trading you have to find and set up the trade yourself.

It’s a delicate balance. On one side people want to trade but on the other side making it too convenient results people not playing the actual game.

207

You forgot about bots. :smile:
“The ARPGs like Diablo are all about playing yourself.”

Yeah, you have big obstacles and even risks. And you think that it is good.
But not this thing was the exact reason of removing AH.

Really? In the case of D4 players said that they will not buy D4 at all without trade. And we also know exactly that devs returned trade in D4 because they saw in D3 (after RoS) that they make very big mistake when they removed AH (the absence of the second expansion, weak support of the game).
They never returned trade (the worst form of AH) in D4 otherwise.

208

You appear to keep touting it as all rng is bugged.

A bug that causes that isn’t rng as far as being programmed as and intended affect of changing gear. Now if it was part of that intended affect then yes it would be a bug with the rng. I highly doubt that Blizz would do that though. So that is not a bug with rng. A bug that randomly makes gear or items disappear is not something that was programmed as a random event. That has nothing to do with rng.

Bugs for one part of rng doesn’t mean it is all bugged and you know it. Stop touting it as fact when it isn’t.

Do you forget the Gambler’s Fallacy, no statistics are not a god that magically controls pure random. Even though the likelihood of 25 heads on an even coin toss of 25 times is highly unlikely. It can still happen because you never leave the 50% chance that it can still be heads.

The same is true for the 60% gem ups. You never leave the 40% chance of failure. So they know it is working as intended. 60% was never intended to be a guaranteed 60% all of the time without any outliers. To do that you would have to reprogram it to be static instead of random. If you try to reprogram it where it is still random but a guaranteed 60% then the true percentage of 60% might be around 80% or higher.

You just don’t want to admit that I am right. You are just either stubborn to admit it or too blinded by your own idea that you cannot see the forest for the trees. I know how the black market will use it and it will happen if your deity returns as you have envisioned it.

They would have speed farming specs that would be used to bot to get keys. Then those keys would be used by botters to get even more gold by doing GR90 speeds. I am sure that you can rack up a lot of gold that way. it gets interesting if botters can program bots to do speed GR100+ by mulitiboxing them.

I never truly saw that many GG Mempo’s with the right stats. Why because most of them were being sold on the black market for more money than what you could get on your RMAH deity.

Without your deity they can’t do it because the chances of that kind of luck to find it to trade with the one that would be buying it for real money is slim and none. It would probably take Spock of Star Trek to even come close to calculating the odds of that one.

You really believe that a business could stay open for many long years without selling a single item of their inventory. I guess you don’t know anything about business.

So they can make money by selling them for the purposes of getting more items to sell. Plus I don’t think that botters that would be bottig to get primals to sell for real money would be doing it solo. They would probably multibox bot to get the job done.

Lol, a really big laugh here, you really believe that your AH deity would prevent the black market from even thinking about profiting off of D3. You are naive if you think that.

I am speaking about facts if the items that players have found by botting for the purposes of selling them for real money doesn’t get sold then they will have to either lower their prices or eventually turn them into FS. That is unless you think that they can have an infinite stash.

And in seasons it is worse. All because you would have players that would need to get rid of their items that they found. Too high of a price means that either they lower the price to make it more reasonable or they just don’t sell them and turn them into FS.

What is wrong with you, the black market wouldn’t post the item till they have found a buyer for the items. That way they would get the money that they want and others would get the item that they want.

Besides look at trading in PoE. Even though it is not convenient and the most efficient way to get gear, which is what the devs want. They know that when trading is the most efficient way to get gear players won’t play the game to get the gear. They play the AH to get the gear.

But still in PoE there are those that have bought items from the Black Market even though you have players that don’t con you in that game that you can get those items as long as you start playing the trading game by trading smaller items to eventually be able to get what you want.

I guess it is the same reason why people cheat in games. Because they can and don’t mind the risk to their account.

Oh and they cannot get battletag info from the ones that would be making the trade with them. That is all that is needed. It gets even more interesting if they get the information about the website from the spam bots promoting it in the game if you deity existed. Or even the ones that spam the friends request with similar offers as the spam bots for those websites do.

Oh are you saying that there is no minimum starting price for bidding. if so then those items will move real fast for a small amount of gold. Instead of insane amount of gold.

The price would reflect the demand for such an item, instead of the actual value.

Oh so instead of using it to empower GRs to get more upgrades to increase the speed at which they level gems they need to feed it to your deity as a sacrificial offering. I don’t think they would be pleased with that idea.

You will not change people’s minds. The majority knows that they don’t want an AH in a diablo game. It is not returning and that is final. Blizz will not get that stupid to put it back in for you.

Look we all know that you call all forms of trading as and AH deity. But you know it isn’t, stop lying to yourself and us. Get over it already it isn’t returning and that is final.

They still see your deity as a mistake that they will not be repeating. So get over it already. You deity will never return to this game, case closed court adjourned. Of course the Judge is Blizz.

209

The rng is pseudo random at all, so it is even not TRUE random.
And yes, it is bugged in this game because we already know about 2 cases with the same behavior (“pity timer” and “bug with recepies” - both provide exactly 0 items for several players during very long time) and with the absence of solution of the true reason of this bug.
Moreover, pseudo random has its own features which can also be considered as bugs (Google or Wikipedia in help).

Nope. Just because you can’t distinguish these “parts of rng” you are talking about. (Can you? ok, provide this your unique knowledge.) And if you do not understand this - it is your only problem.

I do not forget about the “Gambler’s Fallacy”. You now demonstrated one more evidence of it in your case. Yes, the probabilities of outcomes are independent and each of them have the same probability of success (60% in the case of gems or 50% in the case of coins), but the value of probability of many fails in a row is decreasing (by the number of the number of such fails) by the exponential law and ones - that said that anyone can obtain easily, say, 1k fails in a row in the case of 1k tries with the probability of success of 60% or 50% in the case of each single try, - demonstrate another “Gambler’s Fallacy” and their full incomprehension of random and its laws.
And yes, outcome of 20 fails in a row in the case of gems with 60% probability of success is the unintended behavior of random from the point of view of devs (as I said, they demonstrated their own understanding of random by their words in the case of “pity timer”).
Google and Wikipedia in help. Teach yourself.
One more gift for you: the value 1/probability have its own sense - the value of tries on which this outcome will appear once on average (i.e. if we have the data of the very huge amount of tries, hence we will see such tries/probability of such outcomes +/- some desired deviation). I.e. in the case with the 50% chance for coins, you will have the head - on average - every 1/0.5 = 2 tries (i.e. in tries/2 cases), i.e. in the 50% of all cases +/- some desired deviation (evident outcome, really?). Your situation with 25 heads in a row has the probability = 0.525 = 2.98E-8 and you will see it - on average - every 3.35E+7 tries. I.e. once for 33.5 millions tries (on average, of course). The situation with 20 fails in a row for leveling up gems with 60% probability you will see - on average - every 1/0.420 = 9.09E+7 tries. I.e. once for 90.9 millions tries (on average, of course). The question is whether do you want to see such rare outcome at all. For example, as the first your outcome in the game. That’s why while devs do not have big enough IQ to understand such simplest things about random, they do not understand what happens exactly in their game while such rare outcomes can be easily removed (I shown already the way to do this with the minimal efforts in the first post of one more my own thread on this forum).

You do not provide arguments, only emotions. This means only one thing - all your words in this quote (“stubborn to admit”, “too blinded by your own idea”, “cannot see the forest for the trees”) are about yourself, not about me. The argument “I know how” is not argument at all, it is just opinion. Either provide your knowledge step by step or recognize that you are wrong.
I do not have reasons to repeat my arguments and examples time by time - look above and provide your counterarguments against my arguments, not your emotions.

At first, obtain such knowledge and provide the true numbers, after that we will continue our dispute. Arguments like “I do not know exactly, but I think that it is so” are the worst of possible ones.

You missed one interesting moment: such huge activity of your botters on AH (selling gold by millions of tons) will attract the attention of devs to them and such botters will obtain ban of their accounts much more faster than we see now (due to additional data that these botters will provide for devs by themself). You again do not see the full picture with all your dreams and tries to find holes by any ways.

Your GG Mempo’s were being sold on the black markets by their TRUE price in real money that can be easily converted into their TRUE price in gold for that you will saw this TRUE price which were much more greater than the cup of AH and RMAH. It is the ONLY reason of appearing of Black Markets in the classic. And you make very big mistake if you think that there is the difference between TRUE price on AH and on Black Markets. They are exactly the same. And they MUST be the same by the Market Laws. :woman_facepalming:
It is just the unreal set of imaginary errors of AH-haters. :thinking:

You do not need Spock, I am here (see calculations above). :smile:
Nice gift again - i.e. without AH the chances to find something useful and sell is near to 0, but with AH botters will see just rains of top primals. Just mind blown.

If you talk about your imaginary Black Markets and your imaginary people that will use them, please, clarify this moment. Because I commented your words according to the regular players and their motivation with the full ignorance of your 1.5 players = lovers of Black Markets. They can do anything that they want (if they will can do this, of course). :wink:

Problems of your 1.5 lovers of Black Markets and real money are not interesting for me at all. I provided AH for the players that asked for it and your imaginary lovers of real money are minor part of them (experience of AH in classic).

No problems at all. Market Laws will put everything in its place.
We will saw auto-balancing of all in the classic.

What is wrong with you, if you think that only your Black Markets will have very rare items. Do you think that ALL players will use your Black Markets? You are fully wrong. Remember the experience of the classic - only minor number of players used your BM. I can say even more - if we had just CLEVER players in the classic, we will still have AH, because CLEVER players do NOT place GG items on AH with lower prices for that ones can buy them and resell than on Black Markets and other can dream to do the same things and provide their massive complaints about farming AH when they understood that they can’t compete with the first ones (the official reason of removing of AH of classic). Now no possibilities to reselling items, so no one GG item can be bought and reselling through BM. Hence AH will have its own rare items and your BM will have no monopoly on them.
And I repeat again my questions:

and these:

and these:

Further:

Devs of PoE can also make mistakes. Like you provided.
This version of AH does not allow to play with it instead of game.
If you think that it allows to do this - explain how.

Just because your trade in PoE (like trade in D4) has the biggest possible hole - the 1-to-1 Trading Window = open gates for your Black Markets.

I did NOT say this. Again your tries to create additional problems.
And I did not see the answers of my direct questions.

It is its actual value due to the absence of other one.

Your “empower” is just 20% with the loosing of the appropriate amount of XP and legs while they use this +1 try.
Moreover, they do not need to collect gold (and do not use this +1 try) just because they have additional ways to obtain gold (much huge amounts of them - by selling legs and other items).

I said already: do not like AH - do not use. No AH in game for them. :woman_facepalming:

Neither you nor other AH-haters could explain the difference between them, so I continue repeat that trade is just the worst form of AH because it is exactly so. And I provided my arguments for such my opinion. When you will provide your strong explanation with arguments, I will change my opinion without any problems, but for that moment I will not change it.

Remember, please, is it the same Judge that demonstrated big number of fails during last years (D3: Immortal, WC3: Reforged, situation on one tournament, other their fails) or someone else? :smile:

210

You really think that I know nothing of psuedo rng well I have a video link of something that I have watched many times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxP30euw3-0

I am fully aware that you believe that all parts of rng in this game is bugged. Heck you even believe that it creates its own features outside of what the devs created when they coded it. It has taken on a will of its own a sentient being right. I wonder how that happens, mind telling me old great guru.

If you never see those rare cases then it is not really rng.

So instead of rng it is all guaranteed. That is not what keeps players pushing on. They like that idea of pulling the handle of the slot machine to see what they get.

You know that I am right, or you have been so blinded by your idea that you will never see the light. Even if you deity was returned and everything that I said proves true beyond all reasonable doubt. No, you would be happily worshiping at your deity’s feet.

What you don’t think that players could possibly have a bot speed run a GR90. Mind googling it and see, oh wait I seen that in a reddit post on the front page when I googled speed GRs in D3 for bots. Now if, again if they can get bots to work together by using multiboxing then they might even be able to speed run GR100+. Again that is if it is possible.

No players would either wait till they got the gold to afford the things that they want. Then they would make the deal with the third party site to buy the item for gold. All they would have to do is make sure that their bid would be way higher than any other player could possibly afford in a single day.

You still forget the whole idea of gold being used to empower GRs to help speed up the process of leveling gems for augments.

The other thing about botters botting for gold. What has D3 devs shown a history of banning botters right and left for botting. Just ask other players, or better yet just take a gander at some of the post here on botting.

When you post in an item and others must bid on it. Will the one posting the item set a starting price to start the bidding. Think normal auctions in real life. Usually Auctioneers in real life at real auctions set a starting price on each thing in the auction. Does the player that posts the item set the starting bidding price. If they do then that is the hole. If not then again like I said through use of the friends system a player that bought something from the black market can wait till the player is online (using the friends system). Then when he or she posts the item they pick it up by bidding way more than what anyone would normally have. Since the first bid or the highest bid of the day they will without a doubt get the item that they paid for.

You must consider the drops of millions of players worldwide that is what would flood the market.

Again that City of Heroes example. Those rare crafting mats only dropped off of certain mobs in the game. And they had a low drop rate. But with even 125,000 players those rare items that pulled in 10 million influence (gold) only sold for vendor prices after about a year or two of the AH’s existence. Where the only things that commanded the highest prices were the ultra rare Invention Origin Set enhancements. That was because their drop rates were no doubt were based on the fact that the AH existed.

All the black market needs is for enough players to use their services to make it worth providing them. The same as it is for any legit business.

Obviously that minor portion was big enough, along with other legal concerns and issues that Blizz mentioned that Blizz removed your deity.

Trouble of it is in D4 with the restricted trading where the best items in the game are BoA the black market isn’t likely to even get started. All they will have left to sell for real money are items that are as common as dirt or near as common as dirt. I don’t think it would be worth it to set up a black market for those things.

It is more than just them not wanting to use it. It is them not wanting it in the game for anyone to use. if it is in this game again then the players that are still playing that initially left will leave once again even if it is your version of your deity.

I know AHs don’t fit a Diablo game and have said it during Classic, even though I did use the Gold only AH. I still stand by my statement. AHs only fit MMOs and until a Diablo game is made as a true full blown MMO AHs have no place in a Diablo game.

If they did nothing but make mistakes then D1 and D2 would be the biggest mistake they made creating those games. And they wouldn’t even be a company today and we wouldn’t be having this discussion right now.

211

Too many words with exactly 0 arguments.
Random in the programming and games uses usually just one function (or its variations):
rand() - generates random floating number in the range (0, 1)
rand(a) = a · rand() - the same in the range (0, a)
rand(a, b) = a + (b - a) · rand() - the same in the range (a, b)
rint(n) = int(n · rand()) - generates random integer in the range (0, n-1)
Say, in the game XCom: Enemy Unknown / Within on UE3 is used just one function for the random or - sooner - its variation, the function
Roll(n){ (rand(100) < n)?true:false; }
for integers in the range 0-100.

Let in D3 - for the bugged cases we know - devs use such constructions.
drop of legs: if (k · rand() < m){ drop leg; }
drop of recipes:
for(i = 0; i < number_of_recepies; i++){
  if (taked_recepies[i] == false && p · rand() < r){
    drop recepies[i];
  }
}
And we know that there are bugs with both constructions. What does this mean? This means only one evident thing - this pseudo rng (their implementation of function rand()) is bugged EVERYWHERE.

And only ones who didn’t have a case with programming and random can say that there are “some parts of rng which can’t be bugged and only two small parts of it are bugged and it is not problem at all”. No “parts of random” at all, as you can see in the code I provided. Though it is still possible to provide additional bugs due to misunderstanding of random.

Again your “gambler’s fallacy”. Look here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule
and pay attention on the last table in this article (it provides the same comprehension I tried to show by my calculations above). Devs - due to their wording in the case of “pity timer” - think that intended outcomes of random (all - in their opinion) lie in the range of two-sigma effect (“In the social sciences, a result may be considered ‘significant’ if its confidence level is of the order of a two-sigma effect (95%)”) and any other outcomes they consider as bugs.
Outcomes inside the range of two-sigma effect are ones for about 95% of the set. And all of them are still obey the laws of random. By limiting all possible outcomes to be inside the range of two-sigma effect, you will obtain at the same time both random and 100% guarantee for the absence of very rare outcomes. (Are you interesting to obtain your leg only in the next century or in the next millenium? I have big doubts that you or any other player want to see such outcome at all.)
And ones who say “it is not really random” provide again their incomprehension of random at all.
And yeah, if you do not know, rng is “random number generator, a computational or physical device” which emulates random (i.e. it is NOT true random as I said already).

You are wrong. It is still random. But with the 100% guarantee of the absence of the rare outcomes that can happens once in 10 millions cases. All other outcomes (say, inside two-sigma effect - i.e. 95% of them) players will still see.

Water. I repeat again: “provide your knowledge step by step”.

Water (no numbers I requested from you). Ignored.

Again. They can’t make their deal with the buying / selling items for gold because they will have the great problems for transfer such item and gold with such version of AH I suggested. And you continue provide your dreams about Black Markets though I already shown that it is impossible to use them. And if you think that I forgot about this moment, you are much mistaken.

Nope. This moment will provide much bigger prices in gold, that’s all.
And I provided already two additional moments - your empower (+1 try) is just about 20% with the loosing additional XP and legs with such speeding up of process of leveling gems.

Ask about what? About absence of the regular bans of bots in D3?

You proved by yourself in the part of your post with this quote that it is not hole at all (i.e. existence or absence of starting price to start the bidding does not matter at all).
Moreover, it is not hole of the RMAH, it is the hole of gold only AH - the possibility to sell any garbage for very big price in gold (it is the way to obtain gold for real money using third party sites). We saw something like this in the classic on gold only AH for hardcore - it was not problem for players to obtain gold for this AH either by real money or, say, by converting gold from softcore to the gold on hardcore. That’s why I suggested RMAH instead of gold only AH. It is another Market Law - “demand generates supply”, and all attempts to counter this law are doomed to failure in advance. It is like the situation with the botters in D3 - devs can’t solve this problem during 5+ years while I suggested the simplest solution for this in my another thread.

I said you already - for that purpose your lovers of BM MUST have somehow so big amount of gold and you think that it is not problem for them, though it is just because your bot can’t provide such big amount of gold that can be taked by anyone for selling top item(s). Remember classic and prices on its AH.

Yeah, it is the drop of millions of players for the same millions of players. With the same percentage of good items that we see in the game, though you think that millions of players will provide millions of top items just because it is millions of players. Unclever logic at all.

D3 now is about seasons. With the limited duration (3 months). Do you feel the BIG difference between 3 months and several years or not?

Provide proofs.
I did not hear such argumentation from Blizz to remove AH.
And yes, I provided such my arguments for your words with such meaning: “only BM will provide rare items for AH” - as argument against my words that players do not need to use BM just because they do not have monopoly on rare items and hence players can buy rare items on AH without using BM. And you suggested above that only minor number of players used and will use BM, so your initial argumentation was wrong at all.

2 moments:

  1. it is so while devs do not provide one more mistake and rare items will be appeared that will have really big prices for that BM will be appeared too;
  2. such trade (without rare items, only garbage) is not the one players asked for and hence D4 will be failed.

Really? Botters. Without regular banwaves. As counter example.
And yes: there are rankings especially for AH-haters, while no standalone rankings for non-botters.

D3 is like MMO from the start of RoS - clans and cheats for groups.

Really? Look the last official article about the profit of Activision to see what activity gaves them the most profit. :wink:

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This would be true if there is only one rng that handles all rng functions in the entire game. To me, it would be crazy to have one single rng that handles all rng functions. Plus it would have to mean that Blizz hasn’t been entirely truthful about the other rngs that they have said are working as intended.

Plus in order to fix that rng might be harder than it would be if there were separate rngs that handle different functions and it would make more sense to me. That way when they have said that the legendary gem ups are working as intended. The other areas of rng that they have also reported as working as intended would also make sense with multiple rngs that handle different rng functions. That is the only way it can be bugged in a few spots and not bugged everywhere.

That is unless it is a single rng that has multiple branches similar to the double helix of dna. Where each separate function of the same rng would be liken to a different gene. Then it could be that a few faulty genes could exist. This one or the multiple ones would make sense and be correct with what we have been told about rng in general in this game.

I don’t think that you will be able to get it where a pseudo random will be able to eliminate outliers. Where 95% would be a perfect 95% without any deviation.

It is what the video taught me in a simple way since I don’t know any of the math needed to truly understand that complicated portions of it. It was saying it all depends on how you seed the pseudo random number generator (prng). If you see the prng wrong then it won’t behave in a way that appears random. Do it right and it will behave in a way that appears random to the ones that see it.

I know that reply about taking a hundred years or more to see the next beam of light is a hyperbole.

I don’t see how you will be able to seed a prng in a way that has it where you have a true 95% without any deviation in all cases. That is saying that man can make something that is perfect.

Just wait one moment here are you telling me that as soon as a person that gets the really great primal to sell. He knows that he wants to put it up for sale for real money. That the game takes it out of his own hands and automatically places it on the AH because it isn’t on the character. Heck with that line of reasoning all items in a player’s stash that isn’t being used will be on the AH including legendary gems that have already been leveled, some to a really high degree that the player was intending on using later on. No that is not likely the case.

It seems to really understand what I am talking about is real simple.

Player RMT (real money trader) botter gets the GG primal that he wants to sell for real money. He holds on to that primal till he gets money for it.

The spam bots that are in the game advertise that players website. Player A comes along and gets the gold needed to way outbid everyone else by a mile. That player comes to the website advertised by the spam bots and buys the item. The one that he buys the item from tells him when he will be putting that item up for sale on the AH. All the other player has to do is to put his bid in and since it will be way more than what anyone could do in a single day’s time he will win the bid.

Yes it would be a hole. That is because if the player can set a starting price then all he has to do is set one that is sky high. So high that no one would be able to bid on the item within the single day. Then the one with the gold that has bought the item for real money comes in and offers the starting bid. Since no one else will be able to beat him in a single day he gets the item.

Look there is no way that Blizz would return the RMAH to D3 at all. More so than the Gold only AH.

The true price of the item in real money is not gonna be reflected by the amount of time it took to find it. The in game RMAH price will be far lower. Sure there won’t be a max price limit as you have said earlier. But still it would mean that all as someone then would have to do is to have the money for the item.

Thus opening the door to pay to win. Anyone with the right amount of money could buy their way to the leader boards. Sorry but that is not gonna happen because no matter how you spin it your AH deity, no matter its form, is returning to this game.

If your deity was returned those same players have to do something with their GG items. Either vendor them, post them on the AH deity or salvage them. Since selling them to a vendor is out the only ones left would be salvage or post it on the AH deity. What one would give them to most would probably be AH deity. Because they can’t keep it in the stash forever.

If D3 does indeed have ten times+ number of players compared to the number that I gave. Then the amount of time that it would take for items to lose their price would drop real fast unless the drop rates were changed.

I am sure that you know full well I never mentioned that the BM would be the only ones providing the items on the AH. I am saying how they would go about using it. It is true whether it is the gold only AH deity or the RMAH deity. They would use it as the means of trading either gold or real money to get what they want out of it.

Also the hatred of the AH deities (both gold only and real money) was seen on the forums of old. Blizz could see that even though it had good intentions and maybe even a good implementation of it. Still it was not good for the game. Heck in one of the earlier articles I mentioned said that if the suits would’ve allowed them to remove it earlier they would’ve done it without hesitation.

As long as the best items in the game in D4 are BoA you will not have a BM to worry about. Selling items that are common as dirt are not worth the trouble. Then selling the next tier that is a little bit more rare than dirt but still no doubt common enough that it won’t make it worth the trouble to sell them for real money. The ones that they would want to sell for real money will be beyond their ability to do so since they will be BoA.

D3 only has a few MMO features and D4 will have a little more. But no where near enough to call it an MMO. That is the only way your deity would fit a Diablo game. Till that time happens it just won’t fit nor will it be expected to make an appearance in a diablo game.

But how could they make a profit if all they do is make mistakes that cost them money?

In order to make money and be around as long as they have been around they have to be doing something right. That means that they can’t possibly be making mistakes all of the time. Sure there are mistakes that they have made in certain games. What I am saying is that not everything that they have done in all games. Meaning that the entire game is so screwed up that players are wanting their money back the day it hits the shelves. If this happens all of the time then Blizz wouldn’t be a company. It would shut its doors for good and you know it.

So stop this crazy idea that the only thing Blizz has done in its entire history is make mistakes.

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213

You can have such opinion just because you are not programmer, so you even do not imagine how to provide such rng function by yourself. (I did such function on my own forum to provide the effect of throwing dice without using standard function rand() and without storing the appropriate data into the sql-base of the forum, just by using already existed data. This was also random, but I had exact values in the range 1-6 and can obtain them at any moment. I just used my knowledge about random. Moreover, I also added statistics for the posts which should confirm the compliance of random laws - I am about the mean + standard deviation = confidence intervals - for any number of outcomes. Very good experience, I think.)

Moreover, usually programmers have exactly 0 knowledge about random and statistics, so they can’t even imagine existing of some bugs with random. As you know, the first bug (“pity timer”) was discovered on the PTR of RoS (2 years after release of the game). The second bug (with recipes) was discovered some years later. (I still hope that they fixed it in the last patch.)

No one will create additional functions if this one think that the function (only one) is working (must work) as intended. And no one will rebuild such function several years after release of the game. Moreover, they (devs) already provided some adjusments for the game - say, guaranteed number of legs on the fasts of GR or Cube with its recipes or even Kadala. And Miriam. So players have now additional guarantees to obtain legs in the game, but they still do not have 100% guarantees to obtain the needed leg (say, top one) for the sane time (it does not matter, with true random or with the bugged pseudo rng, so in the last case the probability of the wrong outcome is bigger).

They can lie. They can just do not understand random.
They can’t say that their pseudo random is bugged everywhere - Activision will fire them for providing for the players info that can potentially reduce the number of fans (hm, so naive people that think that they are clever than others).

Nope. The truth is much simpler, as usually. To see the evident proofs of the bugged pseudo rng, you need to have the same simplest cases as we saw in the cases with the “pity timer” and “bugged recipes” (i.e. when something do not drop at all during big amount of time). You can see such situation in the case of leveling up gems iff you will repeat the same situation very big amount of times while you do not do this usually. You can’t see something like in the case of your drop (I mean when you want to obtain the leg with the needed set of affixes and numbers of them) because you do not have statistics of your drop and can’t analyze it to provide conclusions.

There are exactly 2 solutions to solve any problems with random (true one with the possibility to have very rare outcomes or bugged one with the even greater possibility for the same):

  1. to provide something like I shown in another my thread for adjusting random in the case of leveling up gems (as you understand, it is very hard work in the case of the big amount of legs with random affixes and random values of them);
  2. to return AH which represents overall drop of all players and the alternative ways to obtain needed legs (equivalent exchange and other ones like we use in the case of AH of classic).

I can suggest you just to search in the internet the code of the possible realizations of random (function rand()) before writing again something like this.

This action has the name “discarding distribution ends”. Look, say, at the picture of the normal distribution (symmetric “bell”). When someone provided actions I wrote, this one just eliminates the tails of this distribution at the left and at the right, without affecting the form of distribution (“bell”). I.e. even visually the picture of the distribution remains exactly the same. Though you said that in such case it will be not true random.

Nice info. I.e. one have additional possibility to provide really bugged prng. But - even this one will do all things right - this prng will be still emulation of random (may be, good enough, but this will be still emulation).
So you know exactly about existing of the ways to provide bugged prng with the minimal efforts (say, by mistake or just by low IQ).

I provided something like in my own thread. Here:

I.e. just additional construction to check the work of prng by comparing the practical mean with the theoretical one and adjusting the next outcome if needed. In such case we will obtain the distribution with desired variation (one / two / three sigma effect). On the practice ones construct confidence intervals by calculating mean and standard deviation + use desired variation (one / two / three sigma effect - i.e. they consider the appropriate percentage of outcomes to be significant). We can do something like by using the bounds of the confidence interval we desired as hard borders for our outcomes. I.e. instead of testing our outcomes and comparing them with the theoretical interval, we just restrict our practical outcomes by the bounds of the theoretical interval and hence we will obtain the complete coincidence of the bounds of the practical and theoretical intervals.
Sometimes this way is used in programming.

Yeah, another good thing of AH of classic - players do not need to collect all items in the stash because they can easily buy them on AH (say, for gold). While now they need to store them because they will need to spend their time for collecting them again.
And yes: no auto transfering of items on AH, of course.

For what purpose must this player wait instead of just to sell this item on AH for gold and then to sell gold for real money? While must this player use your hard logic with BM (third party resources) and additional complications / risks instead of just obtain needed real money using official ways?

Here there is the way to loose real money or gold, just because these two players can’t do this simultaneously: one of them must be first and other of them must be second.

Nope. He will win the bid iff the price will be very high (must exceed the true price of item on several orders). And, of course, 24 hours is not for that to obtain the needed gold - other players can already have it before placing this item on AH and donaters can obtain any amount of gold (for real money) just for several minutes or hours.
So the question is: where will your botter obtain such big amount of gold which exceeds the true price of item on several orders? And for what purpose will this botter to do this instead of just to sell item for gold and than to sell gold for RM?
You described the ways how to use gold only AH as RMAH.

Dreams. I repeat again: “where will your botter obtain such big amount of gold which exceeds the true price of item on several orders?”.

I said already: even you provided the ways how to use gold only AH as RMAH. Of course, I also understand this, that’s why I suggested initially RMAH. And the wrong position of devs does not matter at all. Especially, in this thread about the theory of ideal AH.

I said you already: there are no TRUE prices excepting ones that show the balance between supply and demand. If ones can allow for themself to buy top leg for several thousands euro in classic, they do this.

You again forgot about the simplest fact that top items can’t open any doors now, in RoS. Just because the profit that is provided by top items (in comparison with ones that can be farmed by top players without big efforts and without AH) lies inside the margin of error of the random of the G-rifts. Any top player will confirm this moment.
So: no Pay 2 Win at all in the case of RMAH.

Really? Even you can’t provide strong arguments against AH. So I do not see the reasons for demonstrating this your confidence. Moreover, I can also have a hope that fans of PoE will provide to devs of PoE either their comprehension of the moments about AH or just info about existence of such thread. And in such case - if in PoE will be appeared RMAH - in D4 it will be appeared also, like trade now. :smile:

Hm, and where did you see this rain of GG items if you can’t provide even big amount of non-season profiles with such items on the main chars?

Why not? If they keep them now in the stash, without AH.

And again we returned to your opinion that the fact of big amount of players on AH will significantly increase the percentage of good items. NOPE. The percentage of good items will remain exactly the same as we have now.

I.e. you can say that devs saw just hatred without any arguments and explanations and they removed AH using just opinion of 1.5 AH-haters. Nice logic.
Because now - in this thread - I do not see strong enough arguments (sometimes - any arguments) against AH.
And yes, I saw only one official reason of removing AH.

Yep, exactly. :smile: Look at the article I said.

WC3: Reforged. And we will see the situation with release of D4.

Again your thinking only by extremes.

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But there could be what I said earlier. Either different rngs, one for each different thing. The reason why I would go with this is because it would be like plumbing in a house. Now you might not mind having your water turned off entirely until your plumbing is fixed. Where the only thing that is needed is to have a valve replaced on the kitchen sink. But I do and that is why I wouldn’t want to have it where there is only one master valve to shut the water off. No, that is why in most houses today you have valves on every outlet that uses water.

That is what I was thinking of when I said multiple rngs. Like multiple valves cutting off water only to that outlet. One bugged rng could be worked on and fixed without it having shut the whole game down to fix it. The same would be true if it is one rng that is liken to dna or a giant tree with many branches. Each branch controls a different part, or you could say if it is dna it is a different gene controlling a different part of rng.

They are not returning your deity no matter what form you want it to take.

I am going by the only thing that I can think of. And since I am not a top expert in searching online I cannot get as much info as I would like to get.

Even if you could get a guaranteed 95 or any other % without any deviation, without any outliers then it won’t be close enough to random that the players would notice the difference. That is why outliers have to exist. Their existence keeps the illusion that the numbers generated are as random as humanly possible.

He will get more real money because the true value of the item will not be what is seen in the AH. It can never happen that way. Simply because the amount of gold that would accurately reflect the time it took to find that item, on average (due to some being extremely lucky), would usually be much higher than what the average players would be able to do. So within time those starting super high prices which could very well be accurate would have to come down to a level that others would be able to accomplish it. All due to flooding the market with those items.

He uses time on his side to get the gold needed. Sure any item up there at that moment of time wouldn’t be able to be gotten by him. But with enough time he would be able to get the next one. Of course I am talking primarily non season.

It does matter if they won’t do it. No matter how many threads on the subject exists or how many outcries come forth. If none of it will change their minds then they won’t do it. PC D3 still to this day doesn’t have an offline mode. Even though there have no doubt been hundreds of threads over the years begging for it.

The same is true for your deity. It will not return, so get over it already.

Now you are telling the truth, for a long time you were saying that you can have a true price that accurately reflects the time it takes to find such GG items. I said you couldn’t and now you admit it.

Look a player that knows how to play the game but has deep pockets can actually pay their way to the tops of the leader boards. As long as he can get the items that he needs faster than what others could do and with an AH deity he would do just that. That is even without the BM.

Your deity isn’t returning so get over it already. The closest we will ever get to it is the gifting system that consoles have, which is what Blizz said at a Blizzcon many years ago.

If you have an AH then the players that do find GG items will want to sell the ones that they don’t use. But if they can’t sell them because they price them higher than what others could afford then they will have to do something with them. In time their limited stash space will fill up and there is only so much mules can hold. So that means all other items will probably get turned into FSs.

Oh really they keep things that they know that they won’t use. If that is true then they are hoarders. Along with using mules.

It is the power of my good items plus yours a million times over.

Yes you are blinded by your deity so you cannot see its faults nor will you ever see its faults. You either gloss over them or ignore them outright.

I am talking about from day one of existence. If all of the games that they ever shipped lost money and had players wanting refunds the Diablo franchise probably would’ve never existed and we wouldn’t be having this discussion right now.

I am talking about all of Blizz’s games from the very first one they made that was a success. You cannot be in business for more than two decades without getting something right.

Again stop thinking that your deity will return.

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The function for rng in programming is sooner main water pipe. You do not need such several things if you are sure that this pipe will serve long time and without any problems. Moreover, usually you just can’t provide multiple functions for rng.

Look Wikipedia, rng:

While a pseudorandom number generator based solely on deterministic logic can never be regarded as a “true” random number source in the purest sense of the word, in practice they are generally sufficient even for demanding security-critical applications

Most computer generated random numbers use pseudorandom number generators (PRNGs) which are algorithms that can automatically create long runs of numbers with good random properties but eventually the sequence repeats (or the memory usage grows without bound). These random numbers are fine in many situations but are not as random as numbers generated from electromagnetic atmospheric noise used as a source of entropy.

Even given a source of plausible random numbers (perhaps from a quantum mechanically based hardware generator), obtaining numbers which are completely unbiased takes care. In addition, behavior of these generators often changes with temperature, power supply voltage, the age of the device, or other outside interference. And a software bug in a pseudo-random number routine, or a hardware bug in the hardware it runs on, may be similarly difficult to detect.

Generated random numbers are sometimes subjected to statistical tests before use to ensure that the underlying source is still working, and then post-processed to improve their statistical properties. It is generally hard to use statistical tests to validate the generated random numbers.

I.e. if you have even several different functions for prng, you still do not have 100% guarantees that at least one of them will work properly. But if you have one such function and use it everywhere, you can be sure that it works as intended in all places if you do not see bugs in one of them (which can be tested the easiest way).

As I said already, the only way to avoid the bugs is providing tests of the results of the work of prng (by constructing confidence intervals) with additional adjustments for the further outcomes.

Wrong. This is the random:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Empirical_Rule.PNG
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
Your outliers lie on its tales and are ignored (or are treated as abnormal behavior) in the practical statistics.

It always happen this way. Your biggest mistake is in your mind, because you still do not understand the simplest moment - you can’t see such high prices of items on the official AH in the classic just because there were artificial limitations on the max prices of items both on gold only AH and RMAH. And this is the ONLY reason of appearing of BM (another mistake of devs).
No limitations on prices + RMAH = no BMs at all.
No limitations on prices + only gold AH = BMs for selling gold for RM.
Limitation on prices = BMs for rare items with high prices.

That’s why you can’t explain your logic of appearing of BMs in this thread with such version of AH. Just because you do not understand the simplest things and hence you can never explain to someone else necessity of your tricks with BM in the case of the AH I suggested here.

And all your tries can’t help you because you made mistake at the start.

I provided already you the example of classic with its prices. It was impossible to farm from the ground needed gold to buy item with the price of 109 by one bot in the sane time.
Nice: “non season”. The main feature now is seasons. :wink:

That’s why I spend my time here, in this thread.

I am always telling the truth, and I repeat this many times:

There is only one price = the balance between supply and demand. If someone can buy item for such high price, this one will be the TRUE price of this item (due to reaching the balance between supply and demand). May be you understand my words something else?

Wrong. Your “faster” means sooner several seconds or minutes. And you also forgot about the simple fact that some players obtain better items much faster than other even without AH, just due to random. And about another one - that one can obtain even GG items not only for RM.

For that they should have many such items, but they (most of the players) do not have now even 1 such item (on the non season). And I can ask you again: where will these players take all these items to provide rain of them?

Nope. They keep all things that they know that they can use in the future.
Of course, I am not about returning of AH.

And I said nothing about other their games. :smile:

Yeah, the most common argument of AH-haters: “please, stop, while devs do not return AH, because we even can’t explain why we hate AH”. :smile:

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I am saying something real simple. The pseudo random has to function so well that it is seen as random by the players that play the game. If there are not reported outliers of random. Times when the rng seems off to the players then it isn’t really random. That would cause it to lose the illusion of being random.

It gets worse if you have zero outliers that or outliers that are never seen by others. You could wind up with a predictable pattern of gems ups that others would be able to see easily. 60% would be seen as a guaranteed 60%. Because it would be a predictable 6 out of 10 tries all of the time. Players would know when the next success or failure would occur.

The players would be the ones to set the limits on both AH deities. Trust me there would be limits. Due to the fact that we don’t have unlimited space. Those that would be keeping their GG gear that they can’t use just to sell on the AH legit, zero BM. Now if they can’t sell their wares fast enough. Then they either have to lower their prices or salvage the items. That is because we don’t have unlimited stash space.

So the prices would come down. Then when the GG becomes more common due to AH deities you will have the prices go even lower. So in order to accurately reflect the actual effort to find the item. Players would be forced to turn to the BM in order to do so.

I have already told you how the BM would get their wares sold. You just want to ignore it.

Look doesn’t matter how many players are drawn to seasons. There will still be enough that play non season that will make a huge difference. Plus you might even have some that can bot just for gold with the new changes such as the Hoarder Gem and gold find gear along with T16 to maximize the amount of gold gained from T16 rifts. Then farm the GRs to get the gold for doing them at the end. That person wouldn’t be concerned about the level ups like he would be about getting all of that extra gold.

Besides like I said a player might not even have to get that much gold anyway due to the fact that anything that is well beyond the realm of what most players are able to do. Since players cannot sell their wares they would have to either lower their prices or salvage the gear.

You are delusional if you think that you can change their minds.

I am talking about reaching the price that accurately reflects the amount of time taken to find such an item. That is something no in game AH can handle. This is why BM can sell for more than what you can do with an in game AH deity. When a player is willing to pay more than what the in game market allows due to it being its true price then BM will thrive using the AH deities as a trading tool to get the job done.

AH house deities that have GG items for all 13 slots for build A of class X. Now you have a player that can easily afford to get it all. That would mean that they get all of what they need with just a simple CC purchase. That is all slots filled in seconds. So their march to the top won’t take as long as it would for those that have to actually find that top notch gear.

I am talking about the ones that they don’t use. Why else would anyone want trading in any Diablo game if you rarely see a good piece of gear for a different class and different build that you would never play. They ask for trading because players do find such pieces of gear. This isn’t just primal gear either.

You could have this discussion last for many long years and still you won’t see your deity return to this game.

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You forgot that D3 is grinding game and your outliers like “no legs during week” or “no needed recipe during several seasons” are the worst things that can be happened in the game. Even devs understand this.

Nope. You will still have true random (unpredictable): say, 10 fails in a row on the 60%, but without 20 and more fails. And this maximum number of fails in a row that can be obtained by players can be chosen by devs (in the case of the system I suggested) or by players (in the case of additional optional system I suggested too).

On the infinity, 60% MUST be exactly 60% with exactly 0 deviation, otherwise (if you will obtain, say, 50%) - this will be distribution with another probability of success (50%). As I said already, the main problem that you do not understand what is random. And due to your “gambler’s fallacy” you provide clearly wrong opinions and arguments.

I said: artificial limitations on the max prices of items. Cap of int32 (2 x 109) on gold AH in classic. And the cap on the maximum price on RMAH. This is the only reason for selling items on BM, just because the cap of int32 on gold AH (or the appropriate price on RMAH) was much less than the TRUE price of the item (balance between supply and demand). People can’t sell items by its price on the official AH, so they used BM for this. Your devs tried to go against the laws of nature (Market Laws) while it is very hard to do or even impossible (say, botters in RoS).
All your tries to provide another explanations are just house of cards with the wrong base. I provide just one strike and your construction is collapsed immediately.

Another gift for you:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
“Entities should not be multiplied without necessity.”
Read, teach. To do not provide a shaky design. All is simple always.

I said you already: there is ONLY one true price (the balance between supply and demand), it can’t be TWO different TRUE prices like you think (on AH and on BM), because if you will have much higher price on your BM, people will buy items only on AH, hence no meaning in your BM at all. If you can take all GG items from AH to provide the monopoly on them (as it was possible in the classic), you can resell them and on AH too if you have such possibility. You can’t set higher price on the item (than balance between supply and demand) just because in such case no one will buy this item. The simplest logic. What is wrong with you?

Such question: i.e. now do you have no complaints to the AH in seasons?

You forgot about donaters which can buy gold from many players. You forgot about players that played already very big amount of time and have gold + rare items. Anyone that will find rare item that can be bought by these two categories of players will obtain unreal amount of gold just by one item. Remember classic.
When you talk about rain of legs, you count players (though in wrong case). But when you talk about gold, you forgot that AH provided access to the gold of all players and - in contrast with items - gold can be collected on one account without any limitations in comparison with items (limitations on stash).
And yes: prices of very rare items MUST be so high so that ONLY one can buy each such item (the balance between supply and demand). You will see low prices of items iff the number of such items will be approximately equal to the number of players that want them. And you will never see low prices of really rare and unique items. Like you never saw in the classic low prices of some items.
Evident things. What is the problem with their understanding?

I provided you already the video I like and I said that I think that it is better to do something than to do nothing.

Yeah, but for this these GG items must be on AH, this player must have access to it, this player must have the possibility to buy needed gold for this. In the season it will be problem. In the non-season this means only ones: new player buy his time to compete with players that played in this game very long time. I do not see any problems.
And yes: AH-haters can play exactly as now, without AH, and they will compete in their own rankings only with another AH-haters and will never see in them AH-likers.
Exactly, during this last sentence all complaints of AH-haters about AH are NOTHING.

And what is the problem with such garbage? Let they sell it.

No problems. Though I still think that you will go to my “dark side” much faster and we will finish our dispute here (killing this thread in such case). :wink:
Exactly, you can finish all activity in this thread at any moment - with my last post here (or your last post without any items to comment) this thread will die, since only we support it during big amount of time. Other people (say, ones that wrote their posts in this thread) can’t provide good arguments and do not have so big patience as we have.
And yes: do you understand that you increase the time of visibility of this thread to devs and hence / perhaps increase the probability of the unfeasible outcome?

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Can’t say anything about the recipes. But I can say that there are only a few ways that I can think of that could cause a player to not get a legendary in a week.

  • Playing campaign mode on a low difficulty like normal.
  • Not playing any normal rifts or GRs that week.
  • Not using Blood Shards at all.

There are probably other ways. But most of them a person would have to go out of their way in order for that to happen. I don’t run into not seeing legendaries in a week’s time.

I still have yet to see someone actually test the gem ups at 60% the way that they need to be tested.

I say that someone needs to test it out by having a group of players test the gem ups with a large enough sample size of both non empowered and empowered GRs. I still feel that there might be a bug that could be affecting the empowered GRs that could throw off the 60% gem ups making them more like a 50% or 40% gem ups.

This is something that I cannot do alone. This is something that, like I said above, that a group would have to do. That way it might be shown that there is indeed a problem with the empowerment system that affects the gem ups.

You said it yourself that outliers must exist. If there is a repeatable pattern of 60%. Then the illusion of randomness is broken.

I don’t think that the law of supply and demand will work as well in a game as it does in real life. It will not come close enough to reflect the true effort in obtaining the GG item. That is what is needed in order to prevent the BM from taking advantage of the AH deity.

Even a single rng could still have ways that not every facet of it is bugged as you claim. All because I wouldn’t know how to set it up. But I am sure that if you truly are any kind of programmer you might know that it can be possible that only a portion of the rng system is bugged. Such as the case you said about recipes, which is the only one that I give merit to.

Any in game market will not be able to bare as much, price wise, as the BM can. There will always be a set price that is lower, even without any limits, than what you would get from the BM. So people that want to get the true monetary value of their item they will go to the BM to sell it. That way they get the most money that they can get from selling that item.

Even without the issue of the BM affecting seasons. You still have the problem that players just don’t want the AH in D3. You still have the problem that the devs don’t want to put it back either. There is nothing you can do to change their minds.

I just don’t like the idea that gold can be tradable because it sets up the black market.

When you know that you are barking up the wrong tree, sort of speak. You must realize that you are just wasting your time that can be better spent with other ideas that would really help the game. Instead of wasting time trying to change people’s minds. More so when you know that no one is gonna budge an inch.

I still say that without any changes you will still have a BM. Along with the majority, if not all, of the players on the leader boards with almost all or all slots filled with primal ancients. All due to the AH. Which would make players feel like they must use it in order to compete. Due to the fact that prices won’t be nearly as high as you think that they will be.

I guess you will next say that figures don’t lie. And you know what I would say in return right, lol. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I still say that in all sincerity that the devs won’t be putting your deity in the game again. That is a mistake that they are not gonna make again.

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Yeah, but you forgot about other “very rare oucomes” such as “no needed primal or ancient item during several years”. This can be due to both true random and - especially - due to bugged prng. :wink:

Any fanboy will say you on any your results that your sample size is still not enough to see true results and that your results are still nice for the case of the game with tens millions players. Moreover, “very rare oucomes” (20 fails in a row on 60%) can be happened in the case of single players even in the case of true random. So I do not see the necessity of such tests at all. Say, you will find that prng is bugged. Is there any other solution than I already suggested? Nope. And for what purpose do you need these checks? Instead of just to introduce into the game the simplest feature I suggested.

You do not understand. On the infinity, 60% MUST be exactly 60% with exactly 0 deviation in the case of TRUE random. Wikipedia in help. Confidence intervals on the mean (the probability of success of each trial in our case).

That’s why these your words:

are just another demonstration of “gambler’s fallacy”, no more.

And you are fully wrong if you think so. Laws of nature (Market Laws are ones of them; another ones - laws of Normal Distribution = laws of random) work everywhere and always. That’s why all your (or devs) tries to do against them pre-doomed to failure.

Because true price of item on AH is reflected another features too. Say, pool of gold on AH or maximum value of it that one player has. And your BM must deal with the same set of features as AH. That’s why you can’t deceive the nature (or me).

Yeah, because I know this so I suggested you to teach this moment by yourself to do not provide such wrong arguments as you provided again.
You can imagine prng as closed box with wires and levers - you can twist levers and check the voltage and amperage on the wires, but it is the only things that you can do. You can’t open this box to modify its entrails or to discover them for that to obtain the knowledge about their work.
That’s why your opinion is so strange for me.

You can’t explain why it is so. While I can explain why you are wrong. Market Laws (balance between supply and demand). The laws of nature. Due to them any item will have its true price (= the maximum possible price for that at least (only) one can buy this item). If the price of item is bigger - no one will buy it. If the price of item is lower - hence there are several players that can buy it and so the price will be bigger due to betting game.
And yes, you forgot about additional risks in using BMs (there is not simultaneous exchange of item on RM, only step by step) and additional difficulties (your lovers of BMs will need to have somehow much more gold than true price of items for that to transfer them, that’s why - in the case of absence of limits on the maximum prices of items on AH - your BMs will sell only gold and if there will be such possibility on AH too - your BMs will be not needed at all). You just concocted additional imaginary difficulties in the case of AH and did not see the problems of using of BMs, that’s why you still think that you are right, though you are fully wrong.

We do not have such problem in the case of this thread: “do not like AH - do not use it”. AH-haters can play in the game without AH and they will compete in their only rankings with the same ones at theyself.

Because they still think that there are some problems with AH while there are no problems at all. If they will understand this moment, they will have no problems with returning AH.

Why not? It is impossible to change the minds of only ones - of fanatics with the lowest IQ. I do not think that devs are such fanatics or they have the lowest possible IQ.

Exactly, on the contrary. If you will not provide RMAH (the way to buy / sell gold for RM), BM will be appeared for this purpose. Due to another Market Law: “demand creates supply”. The same situation as in the case of bots in RoS.

I can do different things at the same time. And I do this.

Look at the thread about changing the theme of season with all its likes and arguments. Look forum and find very big amount of threads with nice ideas that can’t be introduced into the game by years. Yes, I really think that we need at first to change people’s minds for that to obtain at least one improvement for the game. And the best way to do this - on the example of the strongest problem in the history of D3 (AH). Very simple logic.

You can’t prove this. While I provide strong arguments against your opinion every time.

Where? In non-season? :smile:

To compete they need to fish rifts and to play in the very special way using OP-builds.

I did not see this on AH of classic, while will I see this now?

I think that you know the phrase: “no need to tease the lion”. :wink:

220

Look you said no legendary in a week. That would include normal as well as ancient and primal.

Look I have seen how the devs of this game have added things that have caused some bugs. Since empowerment was new and it was during a time that players were complaining about 60% not being 60% that there could be a chance that the empowerment was causing a problem with the 60% gem up. I just wanted to make sure that part of it was working as intended.

Players are not gonna wait for infinity, neither is Blizz, to make sure that the randomness in this game is working as intended. Blizz has all of the data that they get from their data mining to be certain that the game is working as intended.

I still say that the amount of money or gold (depending on what type of AH deity you want) will be less in the game, even when the price is set by players in the game. Than the amount of money that you can get for it by selling it to the BM.

Because an in game market is likely to settle on a price limit that is close to what the dev did when both AHs existed. So to get the true price in money for their item they go to the BM to get it. They can still trade it using the AH deity as a trading window.

Again it is that the players don’t want it. Which is more than just that they hate it but will tolerate it. The two are different as night and day. The first are most likely to quit the game, more so if they already did when it existed in the first place. The second will just grumble about it but still play the game.

As long as Blizz remains firm on their stance of never returning your deity to you then we will never see it return.

If someone is truly set in their ways and know that they won’t change at all. Then it is pointless to try to change their mind. That has nothing to do with IQ level at all. Nice straw man though.

Bots will always be in demand in games so there is nothing new there. Even if it is for the extreme lazy person.

No, there will not be a theme that will bring your deity back for a season. It just will not happen, it was a mistake to add it in the first place. It just doesn’t fit a diablo game no matter how you implement it. No matter of the intentions of the ones implementing it.

Diablo is about slaughtering hell’s minions and getting awesome loot. Instead of checking the AH to see if you won that bid. Or checking the AH to see if you sold your item.

That is why trading in PoE is so cumbersome. Because GGG knows that if trading is the most efficient way of getting gear then players will be playing the trading game instead of slaughtering monsters to get the loot.

Season that will do it legitimately. More so if there is a different AH for them. If that is the case then the prices will be far less than it would be for non season due to being a short duration.

You miss the point, they see players with almost or all primal gear. Then they see players with 2k+ (legit) on the leader boards. Then they will think that is what they have to do in order to be able to compete. That is the illusion that is setup by seeing those things.

The only ones that know better are the top notched veteran players like Wolfcryer (monks are his favorite). Along with a few that know that primals are not needed.

It is because that is where the prices will settle on. It will be far lower than you think. It will be like City of Heroes when they put in their AH. At first there were a lot of rare magic and tech salvage that sold for around 1 million influence (gold). Then about a year or so later those same items (Mu’s Vestment I am looking at you) were vendor bait.

221

“No legandary in a week” is the simplest example of unintended behavior of random in the game. Another one (which is the same from the point of random) is the “no needed primal or ancient item during several years” which is hardly to detect or check, but it can be.

I said you already that rare outcomes (20 fails in a row) can be happened even in the case of true random + we have prng (already bugged version of random), so I do not understand what things you need to check.

It is the hard work - to analyze the data properly while devs shown already (with their data about classes and GR) that they have big problems with this. Though they can provide their data for analyzing them by players - some of them can provide true analyzing.

You forgot that in the case of AH from this thread your BMs must to use AH to exchange items on RM and they still need to deal with gold. And the fact that you forget about this moment time by time does not change the overall picture (your BMs will still need to operate with gold, so the prices of items on AH will be higher while you said that they will be less).

For that there is this item of AH from this thread:

and you tried to repeat again the same mistake as devs did in classic.

They can’t. For that purpose they need very big amounts of gold.
They could use BMs in the classic due to existing of a trading window for 1-to-1 intersections. Now they can’t do this due to the absence of such possibility.

We already have two even more different modes - softcore and hardcore. And we do not have additional problems with softcore due to existing of hardcore players. Hence we will have exactly 0 problems with your AH-haters just because they can play on the mode they like as early.

They changed their opinion already with returning trade in D4.

Exactly, there is the direct dependence between the level of IQ and possibility to provide arguments for protecting your point of view also as with the possibility to change the opinion of anyone. Only fanatics with the lowest IQ will change their opinion never. People with the high IQ know exactly that they can be wrong, so they can change their opinion without any problems (if they see that they were wrong).

Exactly by this your reasoning: “it will be never returned” - this thread has the most possible effect according to changing minds in comparison with all other threads.

You forgot about bots. :smile:
Due to your logic, the game is not about them. Hence, you are wrong.

Nope. Because they are wrong.
To see this they need just to test AH in their game. :wink:

Each mode has each own AH. Evident thing.
Because otherwise one can suggest to use the same AH for softcore and hardcore.

This illusion will be removed at the first their try to compete in rankings.

I think that you forgot already that I played in classic, so these your tales you can tell to yourself or someone else.

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Unless you purposely play in a way that would prevent you from getting the gear that you need in a season then I can see why players are having a hard time getting geared up. That means that they are going out of their way to cause the extremes. Not because it is something that is happening as one of the most extreme of outliers.

If certain areas of randomness is working as intended then it cannot all be bugged. Then the bug is not likely in the pseudo rng. No, instead it is elsewhere which might make it harder to find and fix.

They know how they want the game to be performing as far as class sets, rng, along with a lot of other things.

Gold will definitely have a price per dollar, no doubt very high due to the fact that gold is so easy to obtain. That dollar value along with the value of gold that is needed to buy the items in a gold only AH is what will be lower than the amount of money that someone could get selling it on the BM.

I will give you an example. If the true price of an item due to the average effort to fine it is around $350-$400. Now on the gold only AH the amount of gold that would be used would probably have a value of around $200-$250. That is because that would be the most that the market could bare. So in order to get the most money, since some would be playing to earn a lot of money off of the items they go to the BM.

They would use the gold only AH as a trade window. if it is real money then it would be real money.

I am talking about people that are persistent to get the most money for their items.

Now you talk about you need your deity back all because hardcore exists. You deity has to exist because hardcore exist. Sorry but that won’t work, nice straw man though. When I said you will not change peoples minds. You should drop the idea of ever seeing your deity in this game again.

It was a colossal flop as far as the devs were concerned. Sure the suits kept it longer because they felt that it would pay off. When it didn’t pay off like they figured and the laws changed they dropped it like a hot potato.

The changes in the laws is no doubt one of the reasons why they decided to drop it. Along with all of the other reasons that they gave. to them it was a mistake and they will not be making that mistake yet again just to appease you.

Trade in any form is not your deity, even though you look at it that way.

Yes I know you want others to be the type that can be carried hither and tither, by every wind and trickery. Ones that will change their opinions on the drop of the hat. They don’t care if the one speaking is right or wrong. They just say yes or no to what they are speaking. They are the Yes Man/No Man for those people speaking. Taking every word as gospel.

Those are the ones that even though they are no doubt smart. They just don’t have the willpower to think for themselves. Then there are those that regardless of their IQ that can think for themselves and have the willpower to stick to their guns when they know that they are right.

Instead you want those ones to be wishy washy and go with whatever anyone tells them. That will not happen and you deity won’t return, so get over it already.

You are giving yourself more power than you actually have.

Look D2 had bots and no AH. Oh wait I know what is needed. Give us the gifting system of consoles and to you your deity has returned, right. It doesn’t have to be a real AH right.

GGG knows it and Blizz knows it, there is no testing that is needed.

Here is where the problem is you would have to have a seasonal AH that would be there so players couldn’t use the non season to give themselves a boost for seasons. Now the prices of the AH for seasons would have to be a lot less than non season due to the fact that you keep resetting the gold.

I am not talking about the CC warriors that are new to the game. I am talking about the ones that keep getting either near the top or the tops of the leader boards every season. These are the ones that know what they are doing. The ones that know what they are doing and how to play the build properly will be the ones that will be on the leader boards. Plus they will also be the ones with almost or every slot filled with primals

They could get way with that in classic because the best Mempo’s, Vile Wards, Tal Rasha’s chest, Inna’s pants, Lacuni Prowlers, The Witching Hour, and whatever weapon was considered BiS where sold on the BM.