Not really, but you will be significantly more aware of the instances where you don’t get it.
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I told myself season 24 I wasn’t going to do as much bounties as I got tired of it from season 23 Primal hunting. But NSA Kadala kept giving me 5-7 ancient Broken Crowns and 5-7 Depth Diggers which I don’t hv need for my LoD Bombardment, and yeah not 1 Leoric Crown and not 1 ancient Blackthorne pant. After getting 2 ancient Depth Diggers in 1 sharding session, I gave up. NSA Kadala made me do bounties, she made sure of it.
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Man don’t ever go play the roulette in casino, your misunderstanding of randomness will be the death of your wallet!
Even for something as simple as playing black or red… you can easily get a streak of 20 times the same color… That’s randomness for you, 50% chance absolutely does NOT mean you will get it every second try…
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It can happen, for sure, but not easily.
On a European roulette wheel there are 18 red numbers, 18 black numbers and 1 green number. (US wheels have two green numbers, 0 and 00). Let’s just assume people want to bet on red for the sake of an example…
Chance that a spin of the wheel will result in non-red (black or green) = 19/37
Chance that all X spins of the wheel will result in non-red (black or green) = (19/37)^X
Chance that all 20 spins of the wheel will result in non-red (black or green) = (19/37)^20 = 0.00000162
This means that if you did 20 spins of the wheel, 100,000,000 times, you’d get a streak of 20 just 162 times.
Heck, the Gambler’s Fallacy is sometimes known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy precisely because of how unlikely streaks like this are. For example…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Perhaps the most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence: the probability of a sequence of either red or black occurring 26 times in a row is around 1 in 66.6 million, assuming the mechanism is unbiased. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an imbalance in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.
It’s so unusual that the most famous example is over 100 years ago.
if the Casino made a ton of money…may be it’s not unusual lol.
The math assumes all numbers have identical chances to catch the ball though, which in a real world situation is rarely the case.
The house always wins. That’s what the green numbers are for, i.e. 1 in 37 spins results in neither black or red winning. That’s their profit margin.
Yup. The fact that people still think or believe that is astonishing.
The chance on any single random number roll is what it started as. So, every single roll has the same chance no matter how many times you do it.
However, the way you find the chance for any given pattern of tools to happen does not come out as the same chance. It is directly related though.
If you want the same number to come up out of two, then the chance is figured as 0.5^n where n is the numbers of rolls involved. The better way to write that is 1/2^n.
So, to figure out the CHANCE for 20 rolls being the same is 1/2^20 or 1/1048576 or 0.00009539%. that said the last roll would still have a 50/50 chance to be the same one all your previous rolls were. It does not change each roll’s chance, just the chance to get 20 in a row.
So, getting the same legendary in D3 more than twice in a row should only happen extremely rarely, not getting the same item multiple times in a row in multiple instances.
This also assumes every item has the exact same droprate/chance to proc from the cube or Kadala. I’m sure they are not all even.
Game coding is based on the pseudorandom number genator method, its based on some so called random effect that happens in the computer. Because this is not a totally true random method you can have something off the wall happening , like computer lag or something out of sync that can cause things like several primal dropping at once . Its not 100% true random as long as it can be infleunced, but its not controllable influence.
As far as I know the figures according to D3Planner’s Kadala calculator are correct and you can see the odds there. For drops I kind of just assumed it’s the same, there is no proof that droprates and Kadala rates are the same of course but that is just what I would guess.
To my knowledge, client has an embed Random Number Generator (allegedly a Mersenne’s Twister) and this contacts with the server back and forth to create traffic.
For damage calculations, depending on which flags have been raised for the character, it applies multipliers or mitigators and asks server to calculate the damage incurred or damage output and so on. This is how RNG allows you to interact with the game.
For gamble and crafting, as described above, each item has a weight of sorts to appear. There are tons of google doc and excel schemes out there which you can check about the chances. On top of an item’s chance to appear is inverse to how large the loot pool is, there’s also 1/10 for Ancient and 1/380 to 1/435 chance for Primal quality odds for each item.
For map generation, client has to receive a seed information (a block of number hashes) from the server to generate some areas when game (or rift event) first started. As you explore the areas, client demands some assets to be decrypted and encrypted on demand, regarding the seed it got for certain events.
Regarding GDC talks, developers also get rid of such repeating streaks by “bagging”. As in removing some odds underhandedly by a timer (in example; 2 hours “pity timer” for legendary drops added in D3 back at 2014) or providing pre-determined patterns when rolls repeat itself.
If you want a specific item in D3, best way is stocking bloodshards first then gambling for it by creating a second character the very bare minimum level and gambling for it. The subject, Gungdo Gear has an item level of 11; so gambling it as a level 11-12 Monk would eventually get you one for the sake of cubing it once for example at least.
Random =/= assorted. If there was no repetition in random, then it truly would not be random.
If you want to make a quick test, open an online python interpreter, like the one in https://www.programiz.com/python-programming/online-compiler/ and paste the following code in it:
import random
for i in range(1,1000):
print(random.randint(0,10))
This will use a random number generator to print 1000 random numbers on the screen (if you want to print less, just change the “1000” inside the parenthesis to the number you want). If you run that a few times, you’re very likely going to see numbers repeating in sequence. It happens, because we have a reasonably small pool of numbers there (from 0 to 10, in this case), just like you have a small pool of possible legendary items you can get. Likewise, you may see several numbers appear before one specific number you might be looking for.
There is RNG and then there is RNG. The reality is that many items have different drop weights just like the difference between a Legendary, Ancient, Primal and now the Etherial. That does not even take in to account that some items will only drop once you are at x level.
To me Random would be there is an equal chance when throwing the dice. That is actually not so here. I have to believe there may be some items that have a higher drop frequency than others based on behind the scenes weighting. I am almost guaranteed to get a Leoric’s Crown when initially leveling a Character, same with some other more common items.
Just my two cents.
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I completely get what you’re saying; and, yes, I accept that there will be anomalies; but when I keep getting a small variety of the same items - amongst a larger selection of items, across the various medium for obtaining said items - it begins to feel like something else is going on.
That is what I am saying in my post. Not every item has the same weight. RNG would assume you have an equal chance when they have the ability to manipulate that by assigning different values.
So with the Roulette as an example, what if the wheel had 2/3rds black and 1/3 white? That changes the nature of the supposition that you had an equal chance to get white.
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NSA
cld be dynamic depending on your build
Who made the argument that all legendaries are equal though? Even weighted it’s still random.
Why would you assume that?