I’m in season 24 now. Nearly paragon level 1000. I’ve only had 2 primal drops. Did they nerf the primal drop rate? Or is it just my bad luck?
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Bad luck.
During a season, I generally get like 7 primals.
I’ve gotten about 40 this time, strangely only one of which was a weapon (Bovine Bardiche, so pretty useless.) And I’m still not even close to where I was paragon-wise last season… still sub-1000. I did have one run using Kadala where I got 5 primals in a row.
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Yeah, primals are a rarity for me also this season. I wonder if the Ethereal drops have anything to do with the primal drops.
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That’s what I was thinking. I’ve got several dozen Ethereal drops. Typically I expect a primal every 400 drops on the average. not this go around, a little frustrating.
Same, also 2 so far. But I am just over 800. And got a damn near perfect helm for LoD WoL so can’t complain.
240 000 blood shards this season, I’ve had one primal from kadala, which of course was an item no one ever uses.
No, it’s still approximately 1 in 400 legendaries.
So, the Expected Value is X/400, where X is the number of legendaries you find.
Looking in my Stash, I have 7 primals, and those are just the ones I deemed worthy of keeping. I’ve salvaged way more than that. Simple answer is that if you want more primals, farm legendaries more efficiently, i.e. GR90s in 3 minutes per run gets you 20 runs, with 12 drops per guardian, which is 200-240 legendaries an hour. So, on average, 1 primal per 2 hours.
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One thing people seem to constantly ignore is that the drop rate is on average 1 in 400. That however does not mean you are guaranteed to get a primal for every 400 legendary drops, it means all primal drops on a very long time span average 1 in 400. That still leaves room for a huge variance. You might get several in a very short duration and then go an extended period with no drops at all.
You need to count thousands and thousands of drops to draw any kind of meaningful conclusion. The short term variance can really skew the perception and make you think nonsense.
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Yeah, that’s why I used the term Expected Value…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
It pertains to the Law of Large Numbers…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value and will tend to become closer to the expected value as more trials are performed.
There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value
It’s similar to tossing a coin. The average is that you’ll get approximately the same number of heads and tails, but you could easily gets streaks of many heads in a row.
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Paragon 1153 and I still haven’t found Ancient chest or pants for my build. But, I’ve found Primals and Ethereals for other classes. Queue the “RNG is RNG” beat.
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It’s just the best/easiest way to explain the idea of how the system works. People can just see that number and the math behind how many GR’s one needs to do and extrapolate from there. If they don’t understand averages etc then it’s kind of on them right?
Not that I think you fall under that group.
That’s the rate I’m at with my seasonal monk. I’ve been playing nearly all day for the last 3 or so. Level 90 runs x12 legendary drops 3-5 minutes each. Last primal of only 2 that’s dropped for me was way back at about 200 paragon. So far I’ve got about 40 Ethereal drops @ about a 1/100 rate. So from my point of view the primal rate drop is, so far about non existent. Usually most primals are useless to me but the more the better the odds. Still think the Ethereals are messing up the primal rate drop. Thanks for your input.
Do you guys salvage Primals if the item itself is not anything note-worthy? For instance, I have a Primal Maximum, Ess of Johan and Butcher’s Carver. I know these things aren’t used for anything, so obviously it wouldn’t be worth holding onto just because it’s Primal, right?
Yes, many Primal items are just transmog Forgotten Souls.
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Absolutely. Many, many shiny red things have been turned into 15 forgotten souls over the years. I tend to only hang onto primal set items as any changes to set items are usually retroactive, whereas changes to non-set legendaries tend to be a case of having to farm them again to get the new version anyway.
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I’ve gotten a primal Yangs, Squirt’s, and Dawn this season. More useful primals this season than all other seasons combined. RNG will be RNG.
Yes, the 400 is just the average. I’ve had primals drop back to back before.
Over 1k paragon now on my season 24 character. Still no primal.
As mention from another post here. I’ve got 2 “mules” full of primals. That obsesion stems from turning in a primal I thought would be useless turning out to be a great item because of rework ended up be very useful.
I find that they are low too.
Ethereals drop a lot, but primals not at all.
Huh…
Guys, ARE you serious… Season 24… Primals… Are you serious???
Not sure where you’re coming from with your reply. Why wouldn’t anyone want the best gear they could obtain.