Hey
I’ve seen people saying that the drop chance for a primal ancient is somewhere between one every 400 to 600 legendary items found.
But i’ve been farming for quite a while now and im well above 1000 legendary items dropped but still no primal ancient to be seen.
I have been doing Gr 80-90.
How many times does it need to be said? The drop chance is RNG, nothing more. You can estimate it to be one in between 400 to 600 drops as much as you like but it’s still just random, pure and simple.
Oh, i thought there was some kind of anti bad luck system implemented.
Thx
Afraid not. At it’s core D3 is a farming game. Imagine a farming game where by playing enough you could actually get all the gear you wanted guaranteed?
Probably stop playing after that. Blizz wouldn’t like that 
Not to mention farming for the hope of primals is doing it wrong. You will find an ancient that is at least 90% rolled of the stats your looking for LONG before you generally find a useable primal.
On average, primals are 1 in 400 legendaries.
Chance that a legendary will be primal = (1/400)
Chance that a legendary will not be primal = (399/400)
Chance that none of X legendaries will be primal = (399/400)^X
Chance that none of 1000 legendaries will be primal = (399/400)^1000 = 0.081828
8.1% of people wouldn’t get a primary from 1000 legendaries.
At GR90 (and above) Guardians will drop the maximum possible number of loot items, which is 12. 10 of these are guaranteed to be legendary, and the other two can be blue, yellow or legendary. Let’s assume it averages out to 11 per GR run. Assuming you can run those in 5 minutes per GR (including spending blood, salvaging, and so on every couple of runs) and you take a break each hour, let’s say you can do 10 GRs per hour. That gets you 110 legendaries per hour. So, as primals are 1 in 400 legendaries (on average) you should be seeing one primal every 4 hours (on average) at that rate. However, at that drop chance there can be extreme variances in how often you actually get one in short-term time periods, but it will average out to 1 in 400.
Brother it is purely RNG, I have not seen primals for hours meanwhile another day 2-3 primals have dropped in 2 hours of farming.
purely RNG.
I’m a little on the fence. RNG or no RNG after a high enough number averages should tell out.
Season 24 I did the averages of the number of rifts I’d run vs. primals found and came in far short of 1/400.
Not that it matters because out of 90 found like 4 were even usable, so the point of not worrying about them and just looking for good ancients is spot on.
Not to mention as well, You “could” say find 2 primals back to back and then not see one for a long time. RNG is RNG and over the course of Millions and Millions of drops, it averages out to 1 in 400ish.
I’d pay this bit some extra attention. This is what way too often confuses people. Too many times people complain that there’s something wrong when their short term drop rates seem to be below that 1 in 400. What they fail to understand is that short term variance can be massive. Sometimes one might not get a single primal for a few thousand drops and other times one can get lucky several times in a very short duration.
On a very long term the drop rate for primals does average at 1 in 400. But there are spikes and valleys on the way.
That happened to me a couple season ago. I was creating hellfire amulets for my barb and got 2 primals within 3 attempts. Neither had a useful afix though. Sad.
RNG is RNG is RNG
= Random and no guarantees of anything. To put a cap on it means it is then random until…
This said, I know of no less than five occasions since the inception of primals, when two primals of the identical type have dropped simultaneously. also…random.
Not to mention, not only is it random to get one to drop, its also difficult to get one to drop that you can actually use.
lol
The moment you tell the game you do not want them (just speak it out, verbally) you’ll get one within the hour. And then no more. Not until the game detects your dissatisfaction.
In my experience, turning the game off and coming back after 4 weeks usually gives me a primal. Or it continues with the silent treatment.
Think of the RNG like a psycho lover.
damn, ive even found 2 primals drop from the same greater rift boss
Ive seen 3 from the same boss
LOL… boy, is that ever true. And for some gear (Like the dreaded 9th Satchel) I have yet to find an ancient with better stats than my regular one. That “feature” has always irked me… ancient gear should ALWAYS be an upgrade from regular but quite often it’s a major let down. Another one that really grinds my gears is the Halo of Karini. Getting an ancient with 61% damage reduction is usually a disappointment compared to the 78% I’m already wearing.
Best simultaneous drop I’ve ever had was the season we just had where, from a single GR guardian, I got two primals and one ethereal. Should have taken a screenshot, I guess. Oh, and all three were awful and salvaged as soon as they’d been identified. However, I have had dual primal drops before.
Oh, and as for them being rare.
Check out the gear on my level 1 Barbarian and her Templar…
When playing with my lady, we each got a primal once, but never solo (to drop two simultaneously.) The best I had there was getting several in a row, mostly duplicates, through Kadala and then upgrading boots/pants. Too bad they were not anything I wanted.
Oh, and I did get back-to-back primal Bovine Bardiche. I kept one as a novelty.
Yeah I have 3 or 4 primal’s on my Wizard alone for S24. Man do I miss my ethereal weapon. 