Primal Ancient Drop Rate

Has there been a change in the Primal Ancient drop rates? After completing the Skill Tree (if I can call it such) for D3 Season 28, I’ve not had a single Primal drop. I ask, because I’m curious to know if the drop rate changed now that Primals drop 2 at a time.

Thanks.

The primal drop rate is and has always been roughly 1 in 400 on a very long average. On short term it can however vary greatly, skewing perception of the actual drop rate.

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I went about a week running GR120s and didn’t get any primal drops at all. That is when I stopped playing the season. Although, I did log on a few days ago and ran a few GRs and earned 4 primals (2x2) that were trash. So, it is just bad luck with RNG.

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Thanks for your responses.

I am aware of the drop rates; I just haven’t had one drop since completing the Seasonal Skill Tree some weeks - if not a month - ago. I’m not at it everyday; but I’ve put in enough time.

RNG is just so fickle!

Yeah - it’d be nice if they’d implement a pity system like other games do. After you’ve received 1000 legendary drops that are all vendor food, you should be eligible for a higher chance to receive a primal drop.

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Drop the Stricken gem in your speed (Tal Rasha) build. Stricken is only useful for pushing when the rift guardian becomes hard to beat. The stacking damage effects only works on one single monster at a time no matter how big a pack you’re fighting. Bane of the powerful is much better.
It won’t guarantee more primals but you should be able to run gr 100+ a bit faster.

Sure, but I was doing a little pushing (both solo and group). That said, normally, I use my BaneTrapped. Also, I just want it for movement; but, I can run a GR100 pretty fast.

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That’s great. You’re in for a treat once you start going higher with the combination of Smoldering Core and Grand Vizier. Preferably the cold variant because it’s more forgiving and easier than star pact - depending on your temperament of course.

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I’m running Star Pact right now and I love it. Mind you, it’s lower tiers. Might give Cold a try. Does Core/Vizier Combo hit that much harder. (Also, I meant to say Bane Powerful.)

As far as I know Stricken is never used for speed runs. I see speed runs as runs up to around three minutes… with a strong build you may even take more time and do higher GRs taking more time and still get the same or more exp per hour. Maybe you are so powerful that you don’t feel the difference between using powerful and stricken.

The two hand combo is slower and better for higher GRs where the pace is slower. When you make the switch to Squirts and Aughilds bracers and shoulders and the two hand weapon combo you’ll also be able to go higher… you’ll have to change skills and passives of course.

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No the drop rate didn’t change!!!

A lot of people go by the drop people came up with 1 in 400. I don’t because and I will get told I’m wrong. But Primals drop when they drop. Yes people have had where they get 1 after 100 drops and not get another one for like 600 or 800 drops.

3 times this season I have had where I got 4 in a rift run. I have got like 30 to 40 primals this season. More than 50 to 80% of them I gave away to help people on their altar. Most of them are crap that you can’t use.

Plus doing higher rift will not get you any more primals. Once you do a 90 GR you get 12 items. 90 GR and higher you get 12 drops and that is it, Yes at 90 you might get 1 or 2 yellows and blues. If you do 100’s you have better chance to get all Leg drops.

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It’s also important to take gambling at Kadala into account. I’ve found that (as a wizard at least) gambling for gloves gives you far more ancients - and thereby a better chance of a (double) primal drop - than gambling for chest pieces. There are other items that likewise have a higher or lower ancient drop chance when gambling.

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I have heard this rate many time. Where did this come from? Did someone get some sort of confirmation from blizzard about this? Or was this anecdotal? I think the primal drop rate is much less than that, myself.

Depending on the sample rate in some runs my primal drop rate is 100% and in some the drop rate is zero.

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and that right there is what is called anecdotal evidence. If that is the only evidence we have, then we really have no idea what the primal drop rate is and are all just speculating.

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On the website of a product that, if used with D3, can cause you to get banned, it will list statistics for the number of set and legendary ancients / primals in the last 24 hours from the total number of drops, in a pie chart. The figure for primals tends to be around 0.23 - 0.25%, i.e. around 1 in 400. Those statistics, whilst not from Blizzard, are based on millions of drops per day. So, in terms of the Law of Large Numbers, that’s a very good approximation of the Expected Value.

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So then, the statistic is based only on users that use said illegal 3rd party product? That would seem to be a small percentage of total users to me. I am not a statistician by any means, but I would think that the source of the statistic would add a low confidence level to the results. I guess it is better than nothing though.

Besides what Meteor writes there are also dedicated players that take notes of all sorts of things and make statistics.

Wake up to reality. Every season these non stop botters gain thousands of paragon points and harvest enormous amounts of items. Enough to make accurate statistics.

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I asked this same question and got a troll response. Nobody disputing the claim, just wondering the source. “Many players said…” What players said this and where?

Questioning validity of hearsay apparently riles some people up and force them into evasion and deflection. I’d hate to be them out in the real world when they’re asked for their sources.

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Yes. While the users of the said illegal 3rd party product represent only a portion of the entire playerbase, the statistics they provide are still valid. They still provide some concrete evidence of the drop rates.

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