Okay, I’m paragon 681, and I have completed the entire Season Journey EXCEPT for the “Complete an Echoing Nightmare”, because I cannot get one to drop.
Is the drop rate bugged? I thought it was supposed to be about 5% chance regardless of Greater Rift level…
And please, don’t start with the “You’re just unlucky” spiels. Amongst all my gems, I have 300 ranks. If you assume 4 successes per rift (and i’ve had multiple 90% and 80% attempts fail, not to mention al the 60% ones), we can safely say I have run 75 (more than that really, but it’s just the ranks divided by 4) rifts…not one Petrified Scream?
I have hundreds of them in my non-Seasonal bank.
So, is there some other source for these? Like maybe the shattered portals in the over world?
What do you expect other than just that? Whole thread sounds like a bait since you know what’s coming next.
You are just unlucky and they only drop from Greater Rifts. You have to speed farm low Greater Rifts non-stop to maximize your chances of finding Petrified Screams. The thing is, that if something has 5% chance to occur, it also comes with 95% chance for failure. You can not separate head and tails apart of the same coin. Unless it’s guaranteed success; there’s always some chance of failure.
Completing an EN is not part of the Season Journey.
RNG = RNG.
I have gone 100 runs without getting one and have gotten them in back to back runs. 5% is a pretty low chance. Long dry spells can be expected. We are in the 4th day of a 90 day season. Relax, play and by the end you will have more than enough.
My seasonal hero - DeathNova - is currently working on the Champion chapter, her three gems are rank 25, so if we make the same assumption as you did, with 4 upgrades per GR, that’s 75/4 = 18.75, so under 20 GRs in total. She’s got 2 screams in the stash.
You did 75 GRs, with a 5% drop rate.
Chance that none of 75 GRs will drop a scream = (0.95)^75 = 0.0213437338
Grats for not realizing we’re dealing with Blizzard math here. I’m kind of in the same boat. I got a scream on my first GR and nothing since and I’ve gone through half of the 250 keys I’ve gotten just from doing visions (I’ve only run one Nephalem rift for ticking off the season journey objectives that required running an NR). I’m pretty sure all my luck got used up during the vision that gave me two primal drops at the same time (I don’t have the altar done as I can’t get anywhere near high enough GRs solo to reach the GR 110 requirement to allow me to have 1600 blood shards at once which would allow me to advance the altar further) and two ethereals, one on the same floor, one on the next floor.
Lol this is why i stick to campaigns and D3 is one of the best Diablo games, just… why a butterfly? To think i replayed the campaign at least 10 or more times on 1 character before i went onto adventure mode and created the rest heheheee!
I still don’t think it’s nearly as random as people think.
https://i.imgur.com/EnfH4G2.png
I’ve ran 17 Greater Rifts so far. One in ten thousand, not out of the question, but still, I keep track and have similar results with my HC characters.
RNG is clumpy and inconsistent. Scenarios were a player gets 6 drop from 17 GRs and someone else does 75 and gets nothing just prove that RNG is broken and inconsistent. Rewards should be equally applicable to ALL players.
For every unlucky person at the bad end of a Poisson Distribution Curve, there’s an equivalent lucky person absolutely smashing it, but you don’t hear from them on the forums because they’re happily enjoying all the drops.
The alternative would be counters for everything in the game: a guaranteed ancient drop in every ten, primal in every 400, petrified scream every x number of GRs. Also a guarantee of going methodically through every item in the loot table: if a Blackthorne belt drops we won’t see another before we’ve been through all other belts in the table (plus a few from other classess?) etc.
Humans are incredibly bad at believing truly random things are random…
When Apple released its Shuffle feature for iPods, users were deceived by the true randomness of its playback; songs from the same album or artist were often grouped by chance. Complaints led Steve Jobs to alter the device’s programming and begin offering Smart Shuffle, which allowed users to adjust the likelihood of hearing similar songs in a row. “We’re making it less random,” he said, “to make it feel more random.”
He does have a point. Unless the CPU’s randomizer is based on brownian motion, which given our current limitations isn’t possible, it isn’t truly random. Given the right set of criteria to seed the randomness however, it can approximate true random well enough that we’d never notice outside of some really telltale circumstances.
One thing you need to keep in mind as well is that Blizzard’s “random” is also weighted. Heavily so. That’s why there are so many visible wild swings of the pendulum even in a small sample size.
That said, the drop rates could stand to be improved to 10%. That won’t flood us with them, but it won’t feel like a constant famine either outside of some really stupendous outliters.
We have a form of this with how drops are handled in all of Blizzard’s games. Hence the term “weighted RNG”.
