No ancient Guardian bracers after 450 crafted

[BlackSpiirit-21464]

On my SSF Necro season character i crafted 450 bracers from the guardian set and not a single one was ancient. There is no way that is just bad luck

[Kirottu-2131]

@BlackSpiirit-21464

There is no way that is just bad luck

Yes it is.

[Leviathan-1945]

Bad RNG is not a bug.

If it was a bug, it would affect everyone.

[MicroRNA-1507]

If accurate in the 450 claim, the odds of that happening is

1 in ~389,000,000 000,000,000,000

Edit for keeping these words. Just in case the other thread gets 404.

@Meteorblade-2266

@Mattelot-1113

It also gives you a sense of satisfaction when you continuously see “hidden reply” under your posts.

Sometimes, responses are to show others the ignoring poster’s claims aren’t correct. The person metaphorically putting their fingers in their ears and chanting “I can’t hear you!” isn’t the intended audience for the responses, it’s everyone else. Just because someone doesn’t listen to an answer doesn’t stop it being the answer.

@Mattelot-1113

It shows you that they’re clearly obsessed

Or that they don’t like being lied about, maligned or misrepresented unopposed.

[Kirottu-2131]

I have hard time believing it’s whopping 450 attempts without an ancient. But even if it is, it’s still just bad luck. A really extreme case of bad luck but nothing indicating something’s broken.

The normal distribution curve has its extreme ends. Being at one of the ends is perfectly normal.

[BlackSpiirit-21464]

yh your right… but if im not mistaken the chances for an event like mine are 0.9^450 which is a number that is ridiculous. so im pretty sure its not bad RNG, otherwise i should maybe play the lottery today

Im at 550 now btw. without an ancient…

[Leviathan-1945]

Yeah, the claim is suspect.

People tend to have an unconscious bias when counting random events. I know I’ve have, especially if I’m getting frustrated.

Like when people say they killed Chiltara 300 times with no GG. It’s highly unlikely they were counting from the very first kill, or counting at all. Then, when frustrated, the estimate is unconsciously inflated to make the complaint more poignant.

[TinneOnnMuin-1187]

Are you crafting the correct Guardian bracers? There is the low level bracers as well.

The chance of going 450 crafts without getting a single ancient is about 1 in 400 quintillion. That’s an astronomically improbable chance.

OP is either a) exaggerating or b) crafting low level Guardian bracers which cannot roll as ancient.

[TinneOnnMuin-1187]

@Kirottu-2131

The normal distribution curve has its extreme ends. Being at one of the ends is perfectly normal.

Yes, but you get to the point where the extremes are so improbable that they become, for all practical purposes when occurring in finite populations, impossible.

If every single person on Earth played D3 and rolled 450 bracers, it’s still essentially impossible for even a single person to do 450 crafts without an ancient.

If there were billions of Earths, each with 8 billion people each, and every single one of those people rolled 450 bracers, it’s still pretty likely that none of those people would have rolled 450 bracers without an ancient.

There’s small chances. Then there’s really small chances. Then there’s improbably small chances. Then there’s astronomically, impossibly small chances. This is one of those.

[Perusoe-1251]

[TheDerfman-1145]

Are you sure you are crafting the level 70 bracers? There is a lower level one that cannot roll ancient. You should double check that before you waste anymore mats.

[MasterJay-1651]

Got to be the low level one, that’s becoming statistically impossible.

[Perusoe-1251]

@MasterJay-1651

@TheDerfman-1145

Are you sure you are crafting the level 70 bracers?

Got to be the low level one

Yes, we’re pretty sure this is what was happening. (Everything is Level Requirement: 1. Got to read the descriptions).

As you can see from the screenshot embedded above, @BlackSpiirit crafted the Guardian’s Aversion shortly after @TinneOnnMuin posted:

@TinneOnnMuin-1187

Are you crafting the correct Guardian bracers?

There’s no reason to continue this discussion.

[MasterJay-1651]

@Perusoe-1251

There’s no reason to continue this discussion.

Oh shoot I thought you were just linking ‘hey this is the correct item, do you have this?’ not the person’s profile in question that’s showing the correct item.

Obviously not a discussion in a bug report, but these two sets shouldn’t be so similar, every other set’s lower version does something else to differentiate it so this one is probably confusing to players.

But clearly that’s feedback and not a bug so will end convo.

[Perusoe-1251]

@MasterJay-1651

the person’s profile in question that’s showing the incorrect item.

No. It’s showing the CORRECT item. You can even see that it is an ANCIENT Level 70 Required Guardian’s Aversion, which is what this thread is about.

The Guardian’s Deflector is the Level Required: 55 Bracers.

Since @BlackSpiirit now has the CORRECT Bracers, this “Bug Report” is solved.

[MasterJay-1651]

Gotcha, my mistake good to know. So the Deflector is completely different nevermind what I said!