Maths Question Binomial blah blah

General Discussion
1

For all the smart folks out there.

I have dropped 30 shards and have receiced zero of the shard I am looking for.

What are the odds on that and how exactly is that figured?

There are 7 total and I want one so would that be:

6/7 X 6/7 X 6/7… 30 times?

If so thats .009808358 if my math is correct.

No wonder I always end up quitting after only a week or two.

Its not because legendaries rain from the sky, I get what I want and end up bored.

Its because legandaries rain from the sky, I still cant get what I want, and get bored.

2

Maybe that’s your answer?

The shards seem to drop quite well from bosses and in January we could get them all over and over from the Butcher and King Leoric in the Tristram event.

(And great reminder from Strix below)

3 Likes
3

Are you talking about the type of shards or the result after increasing the ranks?

If your answer is the type:

Soul Shards can drop everywhere but are more likely to drop from Act Bosses

  • Act I - Essence of Anguish
  • Act II - Dregs of Lies (Vidian is not included)
  • Act III - Stain of Sin + Fragment of Destruction
  • Act IV - Remnant of Pain + Sliver of Terror
  • Act V - Shard of Hatred

https://maxroll.gg/d3/resources/soul-shards-explained

9 Likes
4

I am talking about dropping rank zero soul shards.

I have now dropped 47 soul shards, and have received zero dregs of lies despite dozens of act 2 bounties and spending 8 bardiches in the cube for visions.

I am not talking about trying to upgrade.

5

3 runs, only boss, Act 2 (T16)

https://i.imgur.com/zI7Jv2i.jpg

1 Like
6

Just did 2 boss runs on A2 on T16:

run 1:
Kulle - dreg of lies
Maghda - dreg of lies
Belial - dreg of lies

run 2:
Kulle -dreg of lies
Maghda - dreg of lies
Belial - dreg of lies

Seems to be working as intended. If OP is being honest, must be some user error going on there.

1 Like
7

I even get dregs of lies from random chests in rifts. (And from elites).

(Don’t see why anybody would lie about dregs of lies :grin:).
Maybe try with another hero to break the spell?

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8

uh, just kill belial

too bad you didnt ask while darkening event was going on.

9

The longest boss to kill on Act 2 :joy:

2 Likes
10

Serious. You could probably Kulle and remake the game like 6-8 times in the same time it takes to do 1 Belial run.

On top of being the quittiest quitter of all time, he has now become the Minister of Misinformation.

3 Likes
11

Are you sure that you are running the game at T16? At lower difficulties you may have lower chance to get those shards from boss kills.

1 Like
12

yah, good luck getting good rolls on those miniboss shard drops. likely why so many people can’t get the best shards.

13

What the hell are you talking about? Do you even play the game? Kulle, Maghda, Belial are all bosses. They all drop a shard on T16 every time.

14

miniboss shard quality is not as good. lower roll cap chance.

15

How much tin foil you have on that hat?

3 Likes