Kadala double legendary chance not working correctly?

Over a couple of days I have tested out the legendary drops on a Monk in seasonal with the Patterns node (double legendaries from Kadala) unlocked. I recall seeing something about a bug during season 28 and if I recall correctly I did notice some inconsistencies. Due to this I wanted to test it in the PTR, seeing as things may have changed.

Normally legendaries are dropped at a rate of 1:10. Doubling this gives 1:5, or 20% chance.

Test results:

100 bought, 17 legendaries - 17%

Chest piece:
217 bought, 21 legendaries - 9,68%

100 bought, 26 legendaries - 26%

100 bought, 25 legendaries - 25%

150 bought, 18 legendaries - 12%

100 bought, 16 legendaries - 16%

100 bought, 28 legendaries - 28%

110 bought, 18 legendaries - 16,36%

100 bought, 18 legendaries - 18%

153 bought, 18 legendaries - 11,76%

100 bought, 12 legendaries - 12%

One-handed weapons:
100 bought, 27 legendaries - 27%

Two-handed weapons:
100 bought, 24 legendaries - 24%

100 bought, 24 legendaries - 24%

100 bought, 18 legendaries - 18%

100 bought, 21 legendaries - 21%

100 bought, 15 legendaries - 15%

Of course the population for this test isn’t too high, mostly due to a lack of time. This may skew some results. Furthermore, this base rate of 10% before the altar node hasn’t been tested in the base game for Kadala.

However, according to this small pool of results the chance to get a legendary from Kadala looks to depend on the item picked.
For boots, chests, rings and amulets the rates seem to be lower than expected. For some others the opposite may be true. This may require some more investigation.

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The bug in S28 is that chest pieces, boots, rings didn’t double as expected. I don’t remember about amulet. Anyway, it seems your finding means the bug persists.


Using a 95% Wald confidence interval:
The following types could be either 10% or 20%: Helm, Shoulders, Bracers, Phylacteries
The following types are most likely only 10% chance: Chest, Boots, Ring, Amulet

You need 246 samples for a better estimate.

As mentioned before, back in S28 boots, chests and rings didn’t work as intended (double legs from Kadala).

Sadly, to be honest, I didn’t expect them to fix that…

Well, 100 picks aren’t nearly enough for statistic significance.
On average however the 20% doesn’t seem too far off.

True. But in season 28 it was experienced and documented to the extent that makes it a valid point.