I started to doubt the drop rate was increased as claimed…
So I started logging data about the outcome of all my kadala gambles
In total:
751 Kadala Gambles were performed (searching for boots on a wizard)
70 legendaries were dropped
0 primals (which is the expected result)
So, How unexpected is this result?
Well, the total number of legendary drops is a binomially distributed random variable with N=751 and p=.2 (if you believe the drop rate was double from 10% to 20%)
This means we would expect 150.2 = Expected Number of Kadala boots drops in 751 gamble
-80.2 = How much we under performed = “actual boot count” - “expected boot count” 70 - 150.2 =
10.96 = Standard Deviation of “boot drop count” = sqrt(751* .2 * .8)
-7.317 = zScore = 80.2 / 10.96
The result of this experiment is 7.3 standard deviation below expectation if we believe the buff is active!!
Therefore, I have concluded the Kadala Buff is bugged/broken. The regular drop rate was 10%. The buffed drop rate is not 20%.
I have a feeling that Kadala’s chance buff is off as well. If that’s true, they have to cook up a hotfix for it soon. Looking at this chart, the spread between expected and result values shouldn’t be this large at all.
Odd, my admitedly smaller sample of 104 gambles (all necro offhands) resulted in 24 legendaries. As that was slightly above, and very close to, the expected 20% drop rate i stopped tracking.
Is this the same character you unlocked the altar with?
Wow! So you, one person, did 751 tries and think that this is some meaningful empirical data that is relevant? 751 isn’t a very large amount of tries, firstly. Secondly, did you bother surveying at least 100 other peoples experiences?
Also, do you have data from previous seasons to backup your claim that YOUR particular drop rate is lower or higher?
One time, I spent 1500 shards and got all blues. Another, 1500 and I got a mixture of blue and yellow. The third time, I got about 10 legendary items and a mix of the other stuff.
I think the game gets into the habit of using a randomized seed.
Actually when testing a 20% chance occurance 751 is a very large sample size. Large enpigh that getting a 10.8% chance is enough of an outlier that either the OP is one of the unluckiest guys in seasonal play or its bugged on that character*. And to be clear when i say ‘unluckiest’ we’re talking winning the lottery of un-luck type chances that its a fluke.
*I mention ‘on that character’ because there is a thread in bug reports where someone mentioned only their initial seasonal character got the 20% drop rate - their 2nd character was still seeing 10% from kadala.
Somebody does roughly 30 GRs (assuming their highest clear is 140) and suddenly these statistics are sound? Again, 1 person? Please report back when at least 100 players have been sampled.
You have the required statistical knowledge to do those calculations yet you still think 751 is in any way a good enough sample size to say it isn’t working?
On average you should get 75 legendaries out of 750 gambles with 10% chance of item being legendary. 150 would be indeed be expected average with 20% chance.
I see a clear, noticeable higher rate of legendaries from Kadala. I’m only gambling on the character that unlocked the Altar.
As Silben wrote, some experience standard, non increased, drop rates on other characters in season.
From my own testing and testing of some other people I know, I can confirm that boots and rings have not received the 20% buff for legendaries at Kadala.
Most of the other stuff seems to work fine though (like off-hands, gloves, 2-handed weapons, helmets…)
I have completed the altar, but have the same feeling, legendaries from Kadala are the same as before duplicating the chance with the altar. Don´t know if it is bugged or not, but the drop rate from Kadala is the same as before…
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