I spent more than 4,000 Forgotten Souls only once out of the Ancient, about 80 times reforged, doesn’t it say that the probability of the Ancient is 1 in 10 Legendary, so the probability of recasting should be about 1 in 10? Today’s reforge reminds me of this disgusting probability, and it used to take about twenty or thirty times before it began to appear ancient, so is this probability that all servers are like this or is it different in different countries and regions? What is the approximate probability that you will reforge an Ancient?
There is no pity timer for reforges or rerolls. Item from a reforge can be rerolled as an Ancient with 10% rate, or not with 90% chance of failure. Previous attempts of failing to land an Ancient, has no impact on your current attempt.
Game simulates a random number generator instead of a pseudo one where it always averages to keep a consistent rate on smaller sample sizes. You ought to think of bigger sample sizes when thinking about total randomization and law of large numbers. Think it as a roulette table with winning series of numbers shifting every time with a static sample size at random; which is just ten numbers out of a series of 00 to 99. You never know which number were the winning one or part of that winning series.
For 80 times Reforge not resulting in Ancient, the probability is around power of eighty to nine tenth. When calculated it’s; (9/10)^80 = 0.0002184745, that means out of only 0.0218% of entire player base population experienced your situation once. It is abysmally low but when we are talking about a 90% failure expectation and 10% chance for success, the rates are those.
♪ How many times have you tried to reforge
And never receive what you need?
How many Souls must you spend in the end
To realize you’ll never succeed?
The answer, my friend,
Is blowin’ in the wind.
The answer is
Blowing in the wind. ♪
Note: “1 in 10” does NOT mean that for every ten times you reforge a Legendary item you will get an Ancient.
What it means is: Every time you click the Transmute button there’s a 10% chance it will be Ancient and 90% chance it will NOT be Ancient.
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what was the item? Set item? Previously a converted set item?
Not sure what you’re implying here.
Converted items can never roll as Ancient. But, reforging converted items CAN roll as Ancient or Primal.
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That is nothing, There was one time spend 1 billion in gold to get a Stats I wanted. I never got it either. It doesn’t matter where you’re going in town to get something.
There is no really rate on this game for any thing. Blizzard never gave us any rates on anything. All the rates come from the people that play the game.
It is like you get a item say a amulet that has CHC at 8%. You want to change it to 10%. You could try 100 times and never get it. Because it only comes up may10 time if that.
But say you have that same amulet that doesn’t have CHC. You click on like cooldown to change it CHC. You do that again 100 times the cooldown will come up like 60 to 70 times.
Why does that happen? I have said before and I’ll say it again. The game knows what you want!!! I have learn over the past 13yrs just play the game and be happy with what you get!!!
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Yes, probability to get an ancient is 1 in 10, and yes it works.
You just remember the times you’re unlucky, and forget the times you got the perfect roll on the 4th reroll.
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If it’s a 1 in 10 chance, then I have nothing to worry about
Now here’s an explanation I can follow AND understand. I consider myself a “casual” gamer because I can’t understand “gamer math” so I can’t play my characters to their max potential even though I’ve been playing since the game was first released (I’m from Diablo 2). I still love the game but I couldn’t quite understand how the rolls and rerolls played out so thank you for this. In the final paragraph I ONLY understood the last sentence ('cause, MATH) but this helped immensely. THIS is why I quietly hit the forums everyday: looking for new things to learn about the game and gameplay without getting attacked for not knowing “simple things” even though I’ve playing for years. Thank you. 
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A 10% chance of getting an ancient does NOT guarantee you an ancient item roll within 10 reforges. It’s not how chance and statistics work. Every instance is a 10% chance and sometimes you can have really bad RNG for many, many instances where the 90% occurs.
I’ve done about 30+ reforges before before getting an ancient.
4000 FS is 50 reforges so it’s definitely a possibility one can go that long without an ancient going for 30+ reforges before one ancient is possible.
The maths has been the same ever since Ancients were added. The up side is that getting FS is now easier with fissures (though, I would just run fissures to get the ancient item I want with the needed stats in the first place… has worked for me… can’t remember the last time I tried reforging).
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Maybe I’m missing something. A Reforge costs 50 Forgotten Souls (plus 5 each Bounty Mats).
So, 4,000 FS would buy you 80 Reforges. (With Visions of Enmity, you should have plenty of Bounty Mats).
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2500 souls would be 50 reforges (50x50).
I have definitely had more than 50 reforges to get an ancient several times in the past. That being said, I have definitely had an ancient in my first reforge several times in the past. As you said, it is simply RNG.
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Maybe they reforge like I bake with chocolate. Gotta add an extra 30-40% because I’ll eat a bunch along the way.
What do forgotten souls taste like? Bearclaws? Cinnamon buns? Argentinian barbecue?
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Hmmm, I suspect I a) hit one key up on the numpad and typed 80, and b) failed to use my brain to reality check simple arithmetic.
Either that or a) my eyesight is going and b) I still failed to use my brain to reality check simple arithmetic.
Yes, have had this happen before a while back when trying to get an ancient something on my DH. Saves mats for another item to be reforged to ancient!
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