Gambling legendary rates by item type?

General Discussion
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Last season it seemed like there were inconsistencies in the rate at which gambling for different types of equipment churned out legendaries, versus blues and yellows. Some of the initial comments I saw suggested it was an improper implementation of the “double chances” buff from the Altar, but it also seemed like maybe the baseline rates just weren’t consistent between the types, and so the doubled rate also wasn’t consistent.

I’ve just been wondering if anyone’s taken stats with the new season, to see if the baseline rates reverted, or if they’re still uneven?

I started wondering in part because I’ve been trying to get boots for a set, and it seemed like I’ve been having terrible legendary drops from gambling. I honestly started thinking I should maybe gamble another more productive type, like gloves (which are dropping legendaries in spades) and then converting the set item, rather than gambling the boots directly?

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I’m not sure what class you’re playing, but for set items specifically there’s usually one slot that has a better chance from Kadala to get a specific set item due to less items in that pool, which you then convert in the cube. I pretty much always go that route if I’m just after completing a set.

https://maxroll.gg/d3/d3-gamble-calculator

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Thanks for that. It is handy, but not entirely what I’m asking. From last season there seemed to be a huge swing in getting legendaries at all from gambling - something like 10% chance on gloves, but only 5% chance on boots. (I’m making that number up, but I think the extremes were something like that.)

So for instance with a Demon Hunter, I may have a 1/9 chance of getting the set gloves I want, but a 1/11 chance of getting the set boots. But if I can get 2x as many legendary boots as legendary gloves in the first place, I’m better off gambling boots instead of gloves.

But I’m trying to be really careful here not to confuse my anecdotal experience with actual statistics. Maybe it’s been bad luck that I’m getting 5% legendary gloves and 10% legendary boots; but maybe it’s designed that way.

What I’m talking about can be seen in posts like one bug report titled “Kadala Double Legendary Buff is broken”. See a copy of the findings below. What I’m curious about is whether it was the buff that was broken, or if the buff worked and the baseline results are uneven?

Different Gear Slots Have Very Different Kadala Success Rates

Conclusion: The Kadala Buff has been applied to some, but not all, gear slots.

Method

I tracked the following Kadala gambling. (In addition to my original post)

Boots

1054 “Kadala Trials”
92 Kadala drops
8.73% = Observed Success Rate

Gloves

692 “Kadala Trials”
130 Kadala drops
18.79% = Observed Success Rate

Chest Pieces

515 “Kadala Trials”
50 Kadala drops
9.71% = Observed Success Rate

95% Confidence Intervals

For each gear slot, lets estimate 95% Confidence Interval for its “Kadala Success Rate”.

Boots

8.73% = Observed Success Rate
0.87% = Standard Deviation
95% Confidence Interval for “Boot-specific Kadala Success Rate”
8.73% plus/minus 1.7%
7.03% to 10.43%

Gloves

18.79% = Observed Success Rate
1.48% = Standard Deviation
95% Confidence Interval for “Glove-specific Kadala Success Rate”
18.79% plus/minus 2.91%
15.883% to 21.7%

Chest Pieces

9.71% = Observed Success Rate
1.89% = Standard Deviation
95% Confidence Interval for “Chest-specific Kadala Success Rate”
9.71% plus/minus 3.71%
6.00% to 13.42%

Kadala is bugged … but its predictable and repeatable.

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Yeah, I know that was your question, but as I have no idea as I haven’t actually made any tally on it. I can say though that I haven’t noticed the discrepancy now, I did notice it fairly early during season 28.

But seeing as it was at least tangentially relevant I figured that info wouldn’t hurt.

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