70 GR25’s…guess what, the drop rate is terrible at GR25. You want to be spamming GR50’s at least, and the legendary drops cap out at about GR90. Take a few deaths and see what you’re capable of clearing.
The statistical analysis I performed was as on figures given by the OP, i.e. it’s based on data provided by someone playing on console. Feel free to show where I made a mistake in that analysis.
Anyway, there’s literally more chance of picking a specific human out of the entire Earth’s population (1 in 7.5 billion) at random than the OP’s claims being true (1 in 10 billion).
I’m playing HC, I don’t want to die. I know I want to be pushing higher, but it’s a catch 22 situation - it’s far too risky to push higher without dawn, chain of shadows, both are critical to a DH’s success. No aquilas either for that matter. I know how the game works, but at p175 and vital pieces of gear missing, and playing HC, it is rather foolish to push higher than is safe.
SC yes, I’d push higher, but HC is a very different kettle of fish…
Then you should be running NR’s to build up Death’s Breaths to upgrade rares to get the gear you need. It’s a grind, but it works.
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MB, there was a small error in your math (139/150, where it should be 137). I suck at probability, so I have zero idea if your math is correct or not. All I can do is report the luck I’m having so far…
that is what I’m doing…but it’s slow go, even with the sage’s set (using rorg to get both sages and shadow sets full)…at t6, it’s a 75% chance of a DB dropping, and then only a single one…with 15 or so elites in a rift, and only 3/4 of them dropping a DB on average, that’s around 11, or 22 with the sage set. I’ve had 7 upgrades of hand crossbows now for dawn without luck…I’ve had every other hand crossbow drop other than dawn, multiple times.
I just got my first piece drop for my build - shadow chest (rolled terrible lol).
An interesting tidbit - I’ve had the hellcat waistguard belt drop in every season since s10 during leveling to 70 - s10 to s19 inclusive. Since the 2.6.8 patch dropped on console, and doing 2 pre-season lvl 1 to 70 trial runs and then again in SC and HC seasonal play, it didn’t drop once. Not once…it has a reputation of being a very easy drop during leveling but for 4 level ups in a row since the new patch? I find that rather odd. Of course, it is prolly bad luck and bad RNG. I wonder if other seasonal ps4 DHs had problems with it not dropping in s20?
Don’t be so focused on your end build. Complete the season for your Natalyas and make an RoV build. The items seem to be much easier to get. You can easily get to GR50 with pretty crumby gear, then start farming your end build equipment. Look at my seasonal DH; pretty junky, but I also have almost the other complete sets waiting in my stash already. So when I get those rare drops, I can jump right in.
yeah I know. With that said, I intensely dislike m6 and n6, they simply are not my cuppa tea. I’ve had 15 DH set item drops so far (with m6 as the clear leader in the drop numbers) and a single sole shadow piece…that is in itself enough evidence for me to believe that Blizzard is deliberately nerfing the drop rates for shadow set pieces to force players to not play it and play the other DH builds…I saw the same trend last season, both in SC and HC, for the entirety of s19 btw. That’s 3.5 months of consistent results, heavily favouring m6, followed by n6, then UE, then s6 in dead last place. Dawn has been near impossible to get in both s19 and s20. HPS quiver same. I get near 10 of each of the other items in that loot group per one of these rare items dropping.
I mean, come on Blizzard - if you’re weighting loot drops to make shadow build so hard to get, then be honest to your consumers and admit it. Don’t silently tinker with drop rates in the background without being honest.
In s20, as in every season, I roll 2 characters - s6 impale and UE MS - they are my preferred builds of choice, that I actually enjoy playing. There’s those words “I” and “enjoy”. Having RNG dictate what players can and cannot play is a dangerous thing imho - give all the items an even chance of dropping (remove RNG weighting) and let players choose their preferred build to play. That’s a very simply tenet of respect for players.
PS I completed the season on Wednesday. A week and a half - that’s probably the slowest it’s taken me to complete the seasonal journey in like 7 or 8 seasons…it’s usually done in under a week, typically 3-4 days.
Oops, the first one I typed out as 137/150 but obviously mistyped the second one as 139/150. In which case, the chance that none of 300 legendaries would be useful would be…
(137/150)^300 = 0.0000000000015
That’s a 15 in 10 trillion chance, i.e. even less likely.
My one and only seasonal hero is a Barb. She has her entire gear set transmog’d to look like the Shadow armour. I got the transmogs when I played with a DH last week, and asked if they’d drop Shadow pieces so I could unlock the appearances. Clearly, the stuff’s still dropping.
This was confirmed the last time I saw people asking about possible changes…
and Blizzard would tell the truth lol…they’d never admit to tampering with drop rates…
currently near 16k blood shards for chain of shadows belt without luck…not dropping from rifts, GRs and rare upgrades…thankfully dawn dropped for me very late on tuesday night (was a rare upgrade) and I got aquilas from kadala cheaply. So have been able to step it up to t13 and been farming DBs etc. Still sucks having limited mobility…
edit: make that 17k blood shards now…
As it currently stands, at p430, I have had 2 items drop for my build from mob loot - 3 shadow pants and 2 shadow shoulders. Not another single item has dropped naturally from mob loot this season for my HC character. Everything else has had to come from kadala (who has been truly nasty this season) or rare upgrades. I firmly believe that Blizzard nerfed Kadala a few seasons back to force people to group up, farm mats and use the cube.
As to belts, I think I’ve had every other belt at least 10x and that’s not a joke - other than chain of shadows which is yet to drop. 16k blood shards is 640 gambles. At a 1 in 10 chance, that’s around 64 legendary items. There are 18 belts, so that should be roughly 3.5 of each…without weighting coming into play. And, AFAIK, there’s an equal chance for each of the belts dropping for a DH (5.56%). This is not even taking into account belt drops from mobs, and belts from rare upgrades (12 rare upgrades so far). I had this very same issue with the hps quiver in s18 - spending 21k blood shards before Kadala gave me one. 21k. There are like 9 quivers that can drop for a DH, with the hps quiver having a lower drop rate (8.57% datamined) and 21k blood shards is 840 gambles…10% legendary is roughly 84 or so, and 9% of that is around 9. So, why only 1? There is this horrible variability in the D3 RNG engine that is not consistent and worse, I firmly believe that it is deliberately done by Blizzard.
One issue you may or may not be aware of is loot tables. The game cannot load every single item as a drop per game instance. It picks a subset of items to be available due to memory constraints. This is why you might get 6 compass roses and no CoE’s during a session. If I’m looking for a piece of gear and it doesn’t drop after 5 GR’s and 5 NR’s, I reset the game. It works.
There is no issue…it is RNG…you cannot attribute any stats or maths behind it.
One player might get an item to drop after 5 drops and one player get the same item to drop after 555 drops…it is RNG.
Even if there is a 10% chance it drops it doesn’t mean in 10 drops you will get it…you will find if you collate all the stats from all players and analyze that the stats will reveal Ancients are 10% and Primals 1% but from one persons perspective it can be wildly different.
That is why we keep playing, because every season is a different experience.
I’ve gone through over 200 GR100’s without getting a Primal…I’ve gotten 3 Primals from two GR100’s back to back…total RNG.
You simply cannot attribute maths to RNG.
An item being a 10% chance to drop as an Ancient say does not mean you are going to get 1 Ancient after 10 drops…but when considering averages, medians etc it generally works out as such.
I feel for Dave, he seems to have bad RNG but equally I know he gets good RNG too…
I need Stone Gauntlets this season…I’m P900…done over a hundred GR90’s…not one…spend shards…not one.
Last season they were raining down on me.
The reality is we like to moan at the drop rates and our experience, we all do it but you can’t attribute any maths to one experience when RNG is involved.
Because when you mass collate from players it shows it will be 10% for an Ancient and 1% for a Primal but you may be the unlucky person where in your experience it is 1% for an Ancient and 0.1% for a Primal offset by the guy who got 20% of drops as Ancients and 2% Primals.
Think of a six side dice…a person may through it ten times and get two 6’s…Dave may throw it a thousand times and never get a 6…it is a 1 in 6 chance but doesn’t mean you will get a 6 in a certain amount of throws.
But if you took a thousand people throwing the dice a thousand times you will find the average chance of a 6 will work out as 1 in 6 because there will be people who potentially throw a thousand throws and never get a 6 and the person who threw one hundred 6’s…and it all balances out.
There is this horrible variability in the D3 RNG engine that is not consistent and worse, I firmly believe that it is deliberately done by Blizzard.
Indeed according to your game experience but you are one…it is not the majority opinion and that is where the stats of probability are revealed.
My experience, after 10 seasons now, is the game is fairly stable in terms of probability of drops when I take my experience and that of others into consideration.
There were a few cracking posts on the General forums where several players came together and recorded their stats…they then took the average and found that the drops are as Blizzard advise they are.
You just suffer bad RNG I’m afraid Dave.
I leveled now three chars to 70 this season (Covid-19). I can see no changes in RNG or weird drops since seasons were introduced. Just found out, that the new set for WD dropped pretty early, but that is still RNG. Got useless primals as every season. What really helps is increasing strength to GR90+. And farm GR’s in 3-4 mins and T16’s in 2-3 mins average.
Still have only one ancient piece of my WD set. Just weapon and offhand is ancient too, but that’s normally the first pieces you spent Blood shards and DB’s in. Doesn’t use reforge legendary untuil now, so season journey is still uncompleted.
And still i got less than 5% out of my legendaries are non-class specific that’s (5 of 100). And “near” all ancients were class-specific.
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Too bad Diablo 3 doesnt go the way of World of Warcraft for the people that have sucky luck at drops and award marks after completing bosses/raids/etc. Maybe offer 1 mark for a t1 and 16 marks for a t16 and have some random fence selling primals for 1,000 marks or be able to switch a sucky primal for another random primal (probably another sucky one, heh).
you’re probably in that “lucky” group. I’m in that 1% unlucky group it seems, with no way of getting out of it. I’m stuck with it for the entire life of the game. That’s not random.
I can’t dare push a GR90 without chain of shadows in the HC game…it’d be a death sentence! mobility is key to the DH’s survival. The new WD set is also magnitudes more powerful than anything DH has now - you’re at least 10 GRs higher, if not 15…
Up to 20k blood shards now (been taking a break and watching netflix tonight). I’ll give it the weekend of GR farming, then I should be back to work on Monday (have been ill the past 3 weeks and off work for 2 of them without pay). I need to finish off Alien Isolation and the Witcher 3 expansion and have a host of new games to play on the ps4, so will prolly call it quits for s20. The last 2 seasons I have switched to other games for large chunks of the season for a variety of reasons, so looks like it will be 3 seasons in a row. It’s hard justifying continuing with RNG this bad.
So, you could have used the Cube’s “Convert Set Item” recipe and have 5 pieces of the set. Combine that with a RoRG and you’d have your full set bonuses.
Good point, but it does cost materials and you arent really guaranteed a different piece. I once use the few materials i had to change a set of pants and i got… a set of pants… so sucky
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Nope. When you use this Cube recipe the result is always a different piece of the set than you started with, i.e. if you put in pants, you’ll get any of the pieces except for pants as the result.
truly my luck completely sucks. I did get the same item not only once but twice
except… here how it happened:
- crap pants again… I only need the friggin helm! gah, change pants item set
- crap got feet… reroll item set, gah pants again… reroll item set
- crap chest piece… this sucks, try one more, damn pants again! salavage!
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must work differently on pc, when i was playing, if i converted set pieces id often get what i converted from.
Of course I tried that…without luck. When you’re limited to low tier torment levels, the mats are low and everything takes much longer…
I ended up getting the chain of shadow belt from a rift guardian in a rift - in fact, 2 of them dropped at the same time, one ancient (and decently rolled), the other non-ancient. At that point, I’d done 14 rare upgrades and spent 22k blood shards at Kadala without luck.
Even after having it drop, I think I’ve had like 3 or 4 drop since and I’ve done a fair few rifts and GRs since my last post.