🛑 Did maintenance massively lower chance for Ancient/Primal?

General Discussion
1

Since today’s maintenance, the chance to roll ancient and primal seems to have dropped tremendously.

Sample size is small here, but it seems very severe and shocking. For example:

I spent 500 bounty mats doing 100 reforges on a pair of set shoulders. Not a single ancient.

I crafted 50 hellfire amulets, only got 2 ancients.

Normally on reforges, I would get an ancient every 10-20 reforges.

Normall on hellfire amulets, at least 1 in 10 would be ancient.

What’s going on? Is anyone else having a similar issue since maintenance?

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2

Just some bad rng looks like

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3

Reset your game and try again. The only thing changed looks like your own bias.

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4

I reset the game about every 20 attempts.

The amount of bad RNG seems pretty extreme, and happening right after a maintenance too?

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5

Paranoia on your part and bad luck
You can’t go into a reroll thinking after 10 rolls an ancient/primal is guaranteed, rng doesn’t work like that

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yeah but 500 bounty mats, 100 reforges, and not a single ancient?

50 hellfires and only 2 ancients?

That’s excessive.

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You only did 100 reforges and only 500 mats and you call that excessive, that is way closer to nothing

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8

Yet still normal RNG.

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No duh Sherlock. But not if other people are having the same strange experience since maintenance - hence the entire point/question of this thread.

The question I asked wasn’t “Hey, are there any know it all jerks who can explain RNG to me?”

The question was is anyone else is having a similar experience.

If you’re just going to be a useless jerk, don’t post.

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10

Same apply to you too then. Craft material you have spent is nothing as ancients have only 10% rarity which also mean 90% failure rate. Do the math yourself.

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In addition to what naksiloth mentioned, keep in mind 10% chance to get ancient is calculated independently for each item dropped/crafted/rerolled/etc. That means your next item has a 90% chance to be normal legendary, no matter how many times you’ve already recieved normal legendaries prior to that one.

Way too many people here seem to suffer from Gambler’s Fallacy, believing that one is guaranteed to get something after certain amount of failures.

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12

Chance for individual legendary to be ancient = 1 in 10 = 0.1
Chance for individual legendary to not be ancient = 9 in 10 = 0.9

Chance for none of X legendaries to be ancient = (0.9)^X

So, if X = 100…

Chance for none of 100 legendaries to be ancient = (0.9)^100 = 0.00002656

I wouldn’t bother buying a lottery ticket today.

And way too many people ignore the fact that cumulative chance isn’t the same as the individual event chance. For example, the chance of a fair coin landing on heads is 0.5, but the chances of getting 10 heads in a row is (0.5)^10 = 0.0009765625

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^^This exactly, I was thinking the same thing when they invoked the “gambler’s fallacy” but was too lazy to explain the flaw. As you point out sample size does come into play.

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RNG at his best.
I got a few of this rngs situations…
Yesterday ursi trolled me hard, failed the upgrade 5 times in a row at 80%.
This kind of things happen. One other time i miscliked on a gem to upgrade it with 1% and it worked… Casino things of d3

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100 reforges is 5,000 (!) Forgotten Souls. How many souls do you have to spare?!?

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Purely RNG. I hadn’t seen a Primal in nearly a week and had 4 drop yesterday. Three of them in back to back rifts.

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No, people are not having drop issues related to maintenance. Blizzard has not changed D3 in any way. If they want to change drop rates, they do it in an announced patch.

You pointed out your sample size was small, but you seem to only insult people who point out that small sample size does not give good data and that your issue is simply RNG. You did get your answer, no, they are not having issues, RNG is RNG.

If you come to the forums asking for input, you don’t really get to pick and choose what input you get. Exception being if the input is against the forum rules of conduct. (profanity, insulting/picking fights, etc.) Please feel free to report it if someone breaks the rules.

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18,500 and rising, it’s not like I use them really anymore
I waste more FS in season

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only thing the maint did for most of us was add more bugs and fix nothing.

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Yeah, RNG is RNG and all, but I finished the season journey, levelled to 800 paragon and spent all my hard earned mats (+/- 80 reforge) and got nada. Zilch. Zero. Oh and my free primal at level 70 was a puzzle ring. I know, I know - boo hoo for me. But it kinda deflates one’s enthusiasm to go all that way and get f-all.