Without a 0/5 trying to upgrade at 60%.
Just thought I’d do one more GR to get a gem from 119 to 120 before logging off until the season starts tomorrow.
Alas… it will have to wait 
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Lol yeah but sometimes you get a 2/5 at 1% and it feels good ^^
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should talk to the XCOM players when seeing a 98% chance. I know it means you can still fail. You should try to untrain your brain into thinking a high % equals success.
LOL, feel your pain. I hit floor 6 getting dealt 6 straight F tier maps, had to go back up a floor to spawn the RG. Then go 0 for 5 @ 60.
This past 2 weeks, I have had at least 4 runs where all 6 maps in a GR run were all from that bottom 1/3rd that are considered F tier.
oh dear, here we go with the lectures, 
I do know that a higher % doesn’t guarantee success, fully aware thanks, but anyone who’s played this long enough I think understands where I’m coming from.
One of the quirks of D3. That’s all champ!
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I’ve had 0/5 on 60% happen to me too, though very rare. I’ve also had 5/5 at 60%.
Wasn’t a lecture. Was a friendly suggestion. I know exactly how it works. I just doesn’t bother me that much sub 70%. Gave up on that missing point blank shots at 99% in XCOM type games and losing missions in WoW at 100%.
Same with 90% and 80% fails in D3. I have seen all 5 of each before. Of course, I have seen all 5 60% pass too.
However, this guy does have a point though. I have seen 60% and 70% fail more than pass, now that is just bad math.
Or is it confirmation bias?
You could fail to get an upgrade on 1000 70% chances and it’s not bad math. The probability of that happening is low. I know a lot of people believe 70% chance means you will win 7 out if 10 rolls. But each individual roll has the same 70% chance. Which is still a high chance to fail.
My fave is when doing a bunch of gem ups at 100%… say 10 GR’s in a row, then you get to a 90%…
You know deep down that there is a 95% chance of failing that 90% chance of an upgrade and it very rarely lets you down, it’s almost like it knows it owes you a FAIL
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Of course. I am talking about personal experience. If I saw more passes than fails, then I would have said so. If I thought he didn’t have a point, I would have said so.
In regards to 60%'s and 70%'s failing more than they pass, I have heard from MORE PLAYERS that they do vs. the other way around. It should be the other way around. Yes? Because 60% > 40% and 70% > 30%. But that would make sense, right? We can’t have that, now can we?
I can agree to that as well. Not because I am on the ‘I agree with that train,’ but from actual experience. You know ‘confirmation bias.’ Matter of fact, while we are at it, lets throw in character deaths as well. Not just D3 either, any game.
So… you haven’t died in a while, huh? Hmm. I think I need to remedy that situation. Attack. Die! Ok, now that I got that out of my system, feel free to continue doing what you were doing.
Oh… up grading gems are we? Hmm. Playing it safe with the 100% rolls, huh? Okay. Fair enough. Guess what? You can’t stay at 100% forever. Can you? Once you get to 90%, it’s game time baby. Better have a tissue handy, because I am ready to dislodge some tears.
Edit: I dread seeing 90%. Not because there is a chance of failing, no. It’s because, after that is 80% and that’s where the real fail begins. If that passes, then there is 70%. Better get ready buddy. It might as well be 30%. Guess what? 60% is right after that and we all know that’s more like 10%. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
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To me. It is either you pass or fail.
60% doesn’t mean anything to me. To me even 90% chance fell like 50% to me. Simply put, as long as the chance is not 100%, it is 50% in my eyes.