D3 S30 Altar of Rites is hateful because of Staff of Herding

You originally stated this…

Killing Chilltara 1000 times means getting the right dungeon 1250 times which means remaking the game 2500 times. My reading’s fine, so’s my comprehension, and I notice when you move the goalposts between “1000 kills” and “1000 runs”.

It’s not a 5% chance per game though, it’s 2%.

If I had already provided an answer to the question, over four hours ago, would that be a problem for your narrative that I’m avoiding it? Oh, wait…

Chilltara may well have a 5% drop rate of the item and, indeed, that’s the value I’ve been using, but you’re ignoring the fact that the right dungeon is only on the map 50% of the time, and the mob only spawns around 80% of the time the dungeon is there. So, it’s 5% of 80% of 50%, which is 2%.

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