I have found 4 Ramaladni’s and 2 primals in the time I’ve spent farming legendaries and ubers to try to craft an ancient hellfire amulet. Still no luck. I wish I had started keeping count, but I’m 100% sure I’ve crafted more than 50 of these things and still have not gotten an ancient one.
I do believe there’s such a thing as too much RNG. This is such an example. I wonder how many hours I’m going to then spend trying to find a gibbering gemstone.
I have received a total of 3 Primals (including the one automatic), both of which came from Kadala. I used them to make a Primal weapon because I have had no luck getting ancients, and figure I won’t likely need to ever upgrade my weapon.
However, by this point in a season (3 Primals), I’d have expected to normally get 4-5 Happy Meal socket slotters… but I have found zero. Too bad as I need one to continue the Altar progression. Not in a hurry though as I have the Challenge Cache, an ancient Puzzle Ring, and the Staff of Herding waiting in inventory (I got very lucky in the parts dropping.)
I guess I should’ve googled the altar requirements at some point. I had an ancient puzzle ring (maybe even 2) and salvaged it/them to try to craft an ancient hellfire amulet.
So yeah, awesomesauce, or something.
Oh, and yeah, I do not have an ancient Hellfire yet. I have made an attempt 5 times to craft one but was unsuccessful. I do not like hunting the Ubers so I ran out of their keys and materials. Guess I’ll do that for a while.
At least it gives me something else to do besides speed run GRs… because that is sooo much fun.
I’ve reforged my 1 of my 4 puzzle rings 14 times and still don’t have an ancient one.
I was enjoying the season till now. I hit 199 on my set leaderboard with a single ancient (it’s primal) but the drop rate for items I can use and are ancient is so low it’s absurd.
RNG is a cornerstone to Diablo, and the cube has bypassed a lot of the grind, but the fact that I’m still screwed over is just sad at this point.
I don’t pre-order games, but I did for D4 since I want a Lost Ark replacement and…well…it’s D4. But things like this make me wonder if I made a mistake still. I’ll still enjoy the game despite RNG, but it’s the endgame I’m worried about.
14 in not enough. Reforging 10 times gives you ~50% chance of succes of rolling Ancient (10% each try), reforging 20 times ~75%, reforging 30 times ~83%
I got it on my 18th try.
There’s a formulaic probability (like the one you’re using,) then there’s the flat 10%. If it takes more than 10 it’s considered unlucky in my books.
30 reforges is 1,500 forgotten souls. that’s 1,500 legendary salvages or 500 ancient salvages.
So I won’t argue your math, but to hell with “not enough” lol…no offense.
The season is a week old. The horror if you don’t have everything unlocked right away.
Look at wow now, valor uncapped and a lot of people are now taking a break. Myself included.
I have made 50 ammys with my DH and 4 with my wizard - zippo. My friend got it on the second try. 5 Izual kills and no pattern. The Blizzard giveth (the altar) and the Blizzard taketh away (an RNG designed by the Marquis de Sade)
I made about 25 of my chosen stat int all of which were not ancient. So I tried rolling Dex and Str and got several on my next batch of 20.
I went and ran through 5 more Uber kills, (for each Key), and then made a Hellfire as many times as I could. The last one happened to be Ancient so I threw it into my Stash.
Now, if only the game could give me a Ramaladni… I could probably complete the next 6 or so Seals.
your math is off:
chance of getting one ancient in n tries is 1-(0,9^n)
10 tries ~65%
20 tries ~88%
30 tries ~96%
so ye, failing a 77% (14tries) would be unlucky in my book, obviously very possible and nothing to accuse the RNG of not working, but still on the unlucky side.
Failing 50times like op on the other hand where one should get one in 99,5% is very unlucky, but still 1 in 200people will be that unlucky.
at least the hellfire ammy only cost 10souls to craft instead of rerolling puzzlerings which is 50souls
on another post someone suggested making a primal version of it. not sure if it will do the unlock
It should work, since a Primal is still an ancient. But that would likely be harder than just crafting an ancient. Unless you get very, very lucky with useless primal drops.
You are not using proper formula
en wikipedia org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial#Definition
I made caculation by this schema many times and N tries with probability 1/N gives 50%
I went through something between 20-30 before I got one. During which time I had to run ubers a second time and I ran out of souls so had to go back to GR’s (For which I needed keys).
But the worst part is I actually got it on the second try. And I still had the first one and 3 or 4 legendaries in my inventory so though hey lets go salvage quick. And out of habit since it is a Hellfire I salvaged the ancient one as well…
I’m on 2. And one of them is definitely not altar worthy. A Squirts with Int, Crit and Vit. Not perfect but damn that is a season long use drop.
Only time one would ever say “Ah I almost wish this primal sucked”. Almost.
I actually do not like Squirt’s Necklace so if I got one as primal, I would either salvage it or sacrifice it if needed. But, with my necromancer, I need Haunted Visions equipped (or Cubed, I suppose) although I generally use RoRG there.
lol I’m at the point where I wish every primal I got didn’t suck. Got 14 today. All garbage. If any dropped when I was in a game with someone I gave them away.
These are not “Independent repeated trials”. When trying to get at least one ancient, you only continue in case you didn’t yet get one, so each step is dependent on previous result.
Hm. Maybe you are correct. I don’t have mental power to check if Bernouli produces the same result but hard to deny your method