4 fails in a row at 80% success?

Bug Report
1

Hi, not sure if this is a bug. 80% seems much lower. RnG seems broken. Please check. I have had four fails in a row at 80%.

While I consider this extraordinary, I recall playing with the same problem years ago. The funny thing is I told a friend before I rolled, watch it fail at 80%, then it did. Like magic. Can you fix this? or make it actually 80%?

The odds of this happening is 1.6%. How did I predict it would repeatedly fail only 1.6%?

My guess is there is some code that, to prolong the life of the game, odds are purposely affected to create the need for more hours put in and work before progression. Given that I am not psychic, it is the only logical explanation I could come up with.

Thanks,
OT

2

1/(0.2^4) = 1/625 chance to get 4 fails at 80%.

1 in 625 people will experience this when the gem upgrade chance is at 80%. if this NEVER happened to anyone, then that would be the odd thing.

7 Likes
3

It isn’t. 80% success chance still means 20% chance to fail. Just because these 4 fails happened in a row doesn’t mean something’s off.

5 Likes
4

Make that 5 in a row…

5

Then see above again.

When an unlikely event happens very infrequently, or for the first time, then this is normal. If it starts happening every day, then come back and report about it.

How often do people run 3 GRs in a row and get all upgrades at 60%? Odds are 1/2126 for that to happen, yet they never come here to complain that the game is broken when it does.

People only notice when the outcome is unfavorable.

4 Likes
6

The probability of four sequential 80% failures is 0.16%, not 0%. You were the unlucky one, congratulations. I once got four 90% failures in a row, which is even more unlucky. My eyes twitched a bit and I continued playing.

Blizzard, please put in a forum section dedicated to teaching probability.

2 Likes
7

Can you imagine? :joy_cat:

A bug report thread saying that they played 3000 rifts, and NOT ONCE got a 4x fails at 80%. IS THERE SOME HIDDEN PITY MECHANICS IN HERE OR IS THE RNG BROKEN??? PLEASE FIX PLIZZARD!!!

We should just make a subforum for “I perceive myself unlucky, please give a hug”. At least people would get the sympathy they are looking for instead of all the pushback they typically get.

1 Like
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My “fail record” is still eleven 80% misses in a row. :face_holding_back_tears:

Sorry (lack of concentration). I ofc meant to say 11 SIXTY% fails :flushed:

2 Likes
9

That’s a really good record. 0.000002% (or 0.00001% if we don’t take into account the first one as the calculation often starts when having consecutive ones → starting from second).
You probably should play those “everything missed” lottery games :slight_smile:

My record is probably only three 80% misses in a row and two 90% misses in a row. 60% misses I have at least 11 in a row. Might be more since I started calculating only after first full 0/5 set.