Correct. In response to a poster that was worried that D2R would NEVER have ladder at all, I said that the fiasco of W3R meant that ladder in D2R would happen at some point. I never said when.
you just struggle with basic logic. you used it as an argument to suggest blizzard will do better yet want to also use it as a reason people shouldnt have been confident in blizzard. you cant have it both ways. hypocrite
When did W3R get ladder?
deflect much???
When W3R got ladder is relevant to my comment to the poster who was concerned that D2R would NEVER have ladder where I used W3R for reference.
you are asking questions for answers that are known to try and take control. not playing that game. you can either use W3R as a reason to think blizzard will do better or to think they shouldnt be trusted. not both. you made your choice back pre launch and considering the debate is about what players should have thought pre launch it is hypocritical to suggest the alternative. let me know if any of these words confused you
Let me make it clear.
- I thought pre-release it was non-sense to say D2R would never have ladder.
- I knew pre-release that ladder start would only occur after the game/server was stabilized.
- I did not know with certainty how long it could take for the game/server to be stable.
- I figured pre-release, it could be anywhere from 2 weeks to 9 months.
- I figured pre-release if it took morr than a few weeks, then lthe first ladder would start 4-9 months later.
now you throw out this 9 months number, where is that coming from? you try and change what you thought back in aug/sept all the time. you either are delusional or straight up lying. You did not think ladder could be 9 months delayed on sept 22. period. this is revisionist and working on 20/20 hindsight. if you think its reasonable to think 9 months (or even 6) on sept 22 you could find ONE person that thought that and posted it.
You have attempted to post 2.
- said worried never would have ladder, changed concern after your post about w3r. not a valid example
- said “hoped march 2022”. can only speculate why but considering they posted they are a non ladder player I think its likely they didnt want to have NL become dead 2 weeks after they played it. nothing in the post suggesting that was the timeline they expected. not a valid example.
any other attempts from literally anyone? or just want to make claims with no basis
It is coming from what I thought at the time, knowing Blizzard’s history
you are lying to yourself if you think you thought on sept 22 it would take up to 9 months for ladder. you are having troubles removing information you have gotten since then. if it came out in october you would not be saying the same thing.
you are the same type of person who said they knew brady would retire when he did and then when he came out of retirement is like i knew there was a good chance he was coming back
As an actuary, you must understand that there is uncertainty when thinking about potential risk. There are ranges.
Let’s assume for a second that I was the only person in the world who understood that there was a possibility of a ladder being delayed 6-9 months. Guess what? I was right with the clarity of hindsight.
you just want to say you are right. you have no proof of these thoughts and literally no one to verify. furthermore, lets say you were right and are the only person. then it is unreasonable to expect others to believe it would take that long when literally only one person thought that.
futhermore, there is uncertainty and its not simply a range but probabilities within that range. just like catastrophic claims, most claims will be low $ but a very small chance of a super high claim. just because the range includes extremes doesnt mean it is likely. you dont price your losses based off that max but rather the expectation. even if your range was weeks to 9 months (i dont believe you) the expectation was likely MUCH less than 9 months are under 3 months which is what people make decisions on.
This is what I have been getting at. There is a range. My prediction was 4.5 months +/- 1.5 months standard deviation.
As such, there was roughly a 95% probability that ladder would launch between 1.5 months to 7.5 months. There was 99% chance it woyld launch very quickly to 9 months.
this isnt a normal curve and dont pretend like you understand standard deviations.
Of course, I know it is not a normal curve. I do know what standard devuations are. Since I gave the probability under the curve as a rough estimate, you would know that I understand.
you say you know its not a normal curve yet literally use normal curve assumptions in your math. the math/stats on this are well above your pay grade. its cool you took hs stats, but just stop.
the probabilities you gave show that you dont understand actually. those probabilities only exist if it is a normal curve which you both say you know it isnt and yet use.
Sure thing, Captain Hindsight.
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I was trying to simplify it for you.
lol you were trying to simplify it for the actuary. give me a break. you used both normal assumptions while saying its not normal and yet want me to believe you have a clue what you are talking about. you do not.
I needed to simplify it to give you a rough view of what I thought in mid-August.