Mosaic and some probability theory

PTR Feedback
1

+25% chance for finishing moves to not consume charges
Sounds good!
Dual claws, +50%, amazing… or not?

If we will do some simple calculations (thanks Excel) then we can see than +25% not consume changes mean:
68.55% - 3 hits
21.75% - 4 hits
6.76% - 5 hits
Yup, that means that you will see ONE additional charge release for 15 charges!!! And it will be first or second charge only, of course. Not so good, isn’t? Yes, it’s totally not so good. But you don’t see how terrible it is, because if you will use a normal attack, then your DPS will be increase on 5.8%… That’s if you have perfect eyes, extrafast mind and perfect reaction. But you haven’t, so divide it.

Ok, lets do the same thing for 50% chance:
31.25% - 3 hits
23.44% - 4 hits
16.41% - 5 hits
10.94% - 6 hits
7.03% - 7 hits

That’s a few better, we will see 1 or 2 additional releases for every 3 charges. Sound’s good? Normal attack will increase your damage on 19.47% only.

Lets up to 75%!
Just totals: up to 14 carged attacks, +45% to DPS.

Hm, still not good.
Then 99%! 489 charged hits and only +96.78% to DPS with normal hit.

So it’s a totally useless, as you can see. We need back one-hit finish and with this runeword it will be amazing. +111% to dmg with one Mosaic and +225% to dmg with dual-mosaic, against +5.8% and +19.47%.

2

I’m not sure I’m following you.

I did some napkin math yesterday however.

With three charges and two mosaic claws you have a chance of 87.5% to have at least one extra charge after 3 finisher hits (1-0.5^3).

This would be kinda neat with a four hit dragon talon, as you’d get at least four release effect 87.5% of the time.

But, NextDelay intereres with charges 2 and 3 of Claws of Thunder and Phoenix Strike when used with dragon talon, so unless that’s fixed this is still useless. Sure, you can use dragon claw twice instead, but then you’re probably better of just releasing charge 3 and 2 over and over again (charge 1 is not really worth it most of the time, single target damage or sloooow meteors)

3

You are right, I made a mistake. There should be used combinations without repetition formula for correct chance calculation.

Chance of hits count is:
Pn = Ps^(3 - Ns) * Pf^3 * C(Ns, Ns+2)
Where
C(k, n) = n! / (n - k)! / k!
Ps, Pf - chance not consume and consume charge
Ns - successfull hit count

For 50% chance:
3 - 12.5%
4 - 18.75%
5 - 18.75%
6 - 15.63%
7 - 11.72%
8 - 8.2%
9 - 5.4%

3 to 7 hits in 80% percentile.

For 25%:
3 - 42.19%
4 - 31.64%
5 - 15.82%
6 - 6.59%
7 - 2.4%

3 to 4 hits in 80% percentile.

Even without next delay (like tiger) dmg will be increased less than +29% and +12%.
Formula:
SUM((Pn*n)/(n+3)) / 0.5
Pn - chanse of n charged hits
n - charget hit count, from 3 to +infinite (I used 20, that’s 99.9799% percentile).
0.5 - dmg without chance not consume (3 charged hits of 6 total).

Runeword is still crap.

4

I mean can’t we just passively gain charges every 3 seconds when the charge up skill is equipped or something. It will end up adding the same amount of damage anyways without the convoluted rng.