I’ve done what must be close to 100 runs and Summoner refuses to drop any Hate keys. Does anyone have experience with this? I’ve never seen anything like this before.
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You are just unlucky. Keep on grinding. 100 runs is nothing. It is statistically possible, albeit improbable, not to get a key even after 1000 runs.
Persevere and your luck will turn around…or not. Praise RNGesus!
little story to RNG and hate keys - was about 70 runs in with only 1 key…
The next 10 runs, he dropped 3 keys in one run, 2 keys in another and 2x 1 in these runs.
ridiculous. so i had 7 more keys in less than 10 runs suddenly.
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I thought the drop rate was something like one in 15. Hence, the chances of you getting at least one key in 100 attempts is 86.85%. In 1000 attempts, it’s 99.998%. That said, I feel like there must be ways to improve drop rates outside of just the number of persons in the game, well, and the sheer number of attempts to get one.
Hahahahahahahha!
Your logic is flawed.
If is 1 in 15, that means that EVERY run you have a 1 in 15 chance. No matter how many runs you do …
Each and every run is only a 1 in 15 chance, each, individually, every time, no matter what.
100 attempts is still just 1 in 15 each!!!
1000 attempts is still just 1 in 15 chance, each and every single run, no matter what!
You’re just unlucky.
Or, as rumor/conspiracy theorists have it … blizz has a filter, and after you run the same thing over and over so many times … it goes from 1 in 15 chance each to much, much worse … in an effort to hurt botting.
I ran summoner yesterday, one single time, just randomly, for fun … guess what???
I got a key the first time, that one single run. But, I never run him.
I’ll sell it to you for some FG.
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I think they made a little mistake in their calculations, but their logic is correct.
You suck at stochastic, that’s the problem. Or lack reading comprehension skills.
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I do not think I have done 100 in a row… but I have certainly done up to 40 with no success.
Join a public game with 3-5 characters in it, whatever you can do relatively quickly/safely, and your chances are much improved… in my experience.
His logic is right it’s called math.
Your odds remain the same each run, but it corresponds with a probability over multiple runs. Always inching closer to 100% without actually reaching 100%.
86% shows that, once in awhile, it’s not highly improbable that you find 0 keys over 100 runs.
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Yup. Each individual run has only a 1 in 15 probability of finding a key, but if you do 100 runs in total, your chances of getting one or more keys over all of the runs together go up dramatically from 1 in 15. Think about it.
nope, every run is a 1 in 15 chance only … each and every run, period … … doesn’t matter if it’s 1 run, 100 runs, 1000 runs, or 10000 runs … every single run is 1 in 15, that does not change, it’s constant, period.
Your odds do NOT increase because you run more. They are each still 1 in 15 chance each and every single run, period.
Never run for keys, spend your time farming other areas for better gear and use it to leverga other people luck with finding their keys.
Sweet Jebuz. Yes, every single run has a 1 in 15 chance. But in total, your chances to find at least one key during those 100 or 1000 runs increases. IN TOTAL. while each run’s chance is still 1 in 15.
Learn some math, ffs.
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Jeez man wrap your mind around this.
You do one run.
I will do 30 runs.
Which one of us is most likely to find a key?
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The last time I killed summoner accidentally during Arcane Sanctuary TZ he dropped 3 Hate Keys at once. Best of luck.
I found jah rune running countess this season and sur rune running summoner 
Yes I found jah off a champ fallen pack in forgotten tower 5!
H and D keys are much harder for me to get by running those bosses. T keys seem easy enough. It is all RNG.
Unless Blizz tweaked the drop rates from what was previously published/communicated.
Odds do not change … no matter how many runs you do … each and every single run is a 1 in 15 chance to see a key … period
which also means that each and every single run you make, regardless of how many runs you do … is a 14 in 15 chance that a key will NOT drop, period.
No other math is needed. Quite clear and quite simple. End of story.
What are the odds of finding one key over 100 runs??
Can you show us your math on that?? I’m not a mathematician but isn’t it just 14/15 ^ 100? That equals 0.1% chance to not get a key after 100 runs…
There is one D2R twitch streamer who recently decided to do a very large project. One thousand torches, in offline single player and p7 or p8 I think as well. And he did it all on stream, so people can check his vods if they could not catch his live streams.
So for his 1000 T D, and H keys it took 25k-35k runs each of those bosses. And yes he had some long stretches without any keys. And my own personal results of 2 key types being much harder than the 3rd… Crazy how much RNG can cause things to be so different.