I miss three times in a row.
Any of you math geniuses tell me what the probability is to not hit w/ 6% chance three times in a row?
I happens so often.
I call shenanigans.
3 Likes
It’s been awhile, but in D3, there’s that girl who up’s your gems, right?
I recall many many times, with 70-80% chance failing, sometimes, all 3 (4 maybe was added by then) times.
That Blizz RNG / math. J/k, yea i don’t whats up there.
Imagine throwing 1 on a d100 5 times in a row though O,o
1 Like
Yeah I have a couple HC characters in Paragon levels I abandoned so long ago in D3 I can’t even remember their names.
Lol
You should hear the xcom nurds go off on this very issue. It’s like they invested life savings in a sure thing and it went belly up lol they get so pissd.
a guy i play dnd with rolls 3 1’s in a row on the d20 almost every week. Odds are low, but not impossible. Definitely higher odds than a gg drop.
Rough estimate, somewhere slightly over 1 in 4500 chance
You think that’s bad though? Back in WoW WoD I once had a mission that had 95% success chance I failed 9 times in a row which is around 1 in 512, 000, 000, 000 odds.
2 Likes
1 in 8000 chance. I’ve played D&D for years and I’ve seen that happen with 1’s and 20’s a couple times now.
My DM is particularly unlucky with her rolls. She can roll a D20 like 20 times and it wouldn’t surprise me if half of them were 1’s.
1 Like
lol. It’s thwe worst when the players all get on an unlucky streak and the dm is hot. That’s when things get really scary.
1 Like
im not a nerd just for liking xcom! your a nerd for NOT liking xcom
check and mate
2 Likes
Its happened a couple time, but thankfully it’s usually the opposite. If it were only this campaign I’d almost assume she was fudging some of the rolls to go easy on us, but she took part in a 2 year campaign we did multiple years ago as a player and it was the exact same thing.
There was one time during a particularly nasty beholder lair where anytime we cast a spell we got a random negative effect based on a D20 where we did actually get the worst possible outcome of that effect 3 times in a row. Very memorable and interesting dungeon but I never want to do that again…
1 Like
In 1.09 and prior those odds were accurate and solid. It was the 1.10 patch they nerfed all the odds. You have a chance to hit 94%. That “chance” is determined by other factors such as your lvl vrs the mobs lvl and the items you wear, and the other players in game. A LOT makes up the word chance. So you might have a 60% chance to hit 94% of the time.
If you have a 94% chance to hit Diablo, who has a 50% chance to block (or thereabouts), you only have a 47% chance to actually land a blow. Lol
And yes, if you think 94% is high, play xcom hardcore ironman for a bit and record the number of times you yell BS. 
4 Likes
Your mind is more prone to remember the outliers. If you miss 3 times in a row at 94% it naturally seems like it happens all the time.
Your system 1 is a bad statistician. If you actually measured it out with a large sample size it would output close to 94%. Good book about this: Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman
1 Like
So a few things to consider.
Were you still in range of the swing? Sometimes a weapon can look like you are close enough but just doesn’t have the reach.
Did you get hit? NHAM bug is still very much a thing
Did the target block?
3 Likes
been awhile since math class is this the way of calculating?
.06 x .06 x .06 = 0.000216
so 0.000216% chance of happening?
1 Like
As others have mentioned 94% is not the real percentage. Nothing to see here folks.
94%!? better grab blessed aim merc
1 Like
My actual record are 5 times in a row 1 on d100 and 16 times in a row 1 on d20. While my d6 and d8 are usually 1-2 my d10 and d12 often are maxed out.
Is just odds luck/unluck streak
My DM several times asked me to roll like 6 d20’s to roll in each of my stats and would accept anything between 6 and 18 on them.
My dwarfs always have at least 6 charisma and roughly 8-10 on dexterity. Wis 8-10, Con 12-18 and Str 12-18.
The weakiest character sheet I made I had all stats 6 and then afterwards he created that rule for me. Sometimes he just say: spend X points between 8-18.
Having a dwarf with 4 charisma was painful. In a campaign that foes drained charisma on attack. At least I had 8 on Con.
I rolled 14 times 1 on d20, then he said: “your stats will be 6 on everything”. Let’s start.
First fight, rolled 1 on d20. After the initial roll he asked to roll another one, another 1. He picked the dice, said. Well never use this dice again and rolled. He got a 20.
That’s my tale of 16, 1’s in a row on d20.
That was the my fastest character death on several years playing DnD.
1 Like
I think what SiG and ModernKnight said is probably closer to the truth.
just like when your Paladin’s says 75% chance to block, its not your “real” chance to block. I suspect there are other factors underneath the chance to hit stat that muddy the waters.
Also, NHAM bug is not fixed. It also discards some blows.