How many of those toons recorded on the census sites are stale?
How many are casual alts?
I prefer to look at leaderboard status because, IMO, it paints a more accurate picture of what’s going on when superimposed over the census sites.
View a census site’s report as a kind of “upper limit”. If a census site shows the factions at 120 being 55/45, chances are something is off and that’s the best it can possibly be.
Then tie in the data from the leaderboards.
Mythic raiding? Horde are up around 10:1.
Mythic+ dungeons? Horde are up 5:1.
Both suggest significant horde engagement advantages over the alliance far in excess of the 55/45 suggested by the census sites, but in the same direction.
Add to that, the simple fact that while the Horde leaderboards are so over-stacked compared to the alliance on the M+ boards, many horde dungeon boards don’t start until around +4 or +6, with many of the more competitive realm boards starting around +12 or +13.
Alliance? Many realms saturated with Alliance qualify for M+ leaderboards with a +2 across the board. The easier M+ dungeons that require +12 or higher on Horde side? +4 to +6 tops. Maybe +8.
In overall representation in aggregate leaderboards (RaiderIO has them)? We see alliance on the boards at a consistent 1:5 (one alliance to 5 horde).
Alliance aren’t “not queuing up”, and aren’t “too scared to play the game”.
We’re just not playing. My guess is that the rumors of population falloff have a grain of truth to them, only it’s primarily Alliance players that are quitting.
We’re not just moving over to the horde for better racials and better recruitment. We’re quitting the game in larger numbers because everything that’s causing people to quit are further exasperated by dev bias and horde favoritism.
Alliance PvPers? They’re not just switching to the Horde to gank alliance lowbies and for free 10% hordemode buffs. They’re moving onto other games.
Alliance PvErs? They’re not just switching to the horde to find a guild. They’re moving onto other games.
Alliance WPvPers? They’re not just turning warmode off. They’re moving onto other games like LoL, Overwatch, CoD, Battlefield, and whatever else comes along to scratch their itch.
Alliance aren’t playing the game, and this should worry you.