Loot 10:1-5
2 Likes
Saw 7 mainhand before valor shoulders
Got might next raid
They are low, but I’ve seen them periodically. If my experience is accurate (and it’s really just anecdotal) the polearm and mail/plate helms like to drop the most with other stuff like ring, shoulders, bracers popping up periodically. I’ve seen the OH once or twice and the eyepatch two or three times. Valor is definitely lower on the totem pole.
Valor isn’t really all that good anyways. Decent for tanking if you pair for bracers, but the goal is true strike amyways.
I mean… That’s actually pretty good right? There’s lots of peer review journal level research indicating that Wikipedia has an accuracy rate on par with any other published encyclopedia referrence source. So while it’s not data directly from the developers, it’s likely the most accurate and precise publicly available information.
1 Like
What he was saying was the chance of not seeing it after 21 attempts was 1% (IDK if accurate, but that’s what he argued). The drop rate obviously does not increase each run, but you can math the probability for how long it should take you to get something based on an assumed drop rate.
People use that basis to argue something is broken because if you knew something had a 20% drop rate and you did it 100 times without seeing it you’d feel like something was up.
Yep so the chances of not getting the drop (81% per run) happening 21 times consecutively is 1.20% (0.81^21). It’s unlikely, but clearly possible.
If everyone can get something without effort, it’s not rare.
2 Likes
Zero for twenty-five is … let’s see… 0%?
Is my math correct?
Not sure why this is even an question…
That’s not how probability works.
You are the person that casinos LOVE. In fact, they’re in business because of people like you!
1 Like
But the drop rate should increase for zoomers the more times they run it cause… entitlement and participation.
Omg dude, know probabilities, it drops 19% of the time means each run has a 19% chance to drop, here is some news, if you run it 1000 more times it may never drop for you, because each time you run it ther is only a ‘chance’ to dop at 19%. That number does not change no matter how often you run the dungeon.
1 Like
That’s…exactly how probability works.
If you have a 19% drop rate you have a ~1.1% chance of not seeing it after 21 runs.
1 Like
Guys. If you know the drop rate, you can calculate the probability of it dropping if you run it X number of times.
For example: flipping a coin and getting heads, the probability is 50%, that’s simple. If you just need to flip a coin and get heads a single time, the probability of seeing heads at least once goes up the more times you flip the coin. While each individual toss is still 50%, flipping the coin twice gives you a 75% chance of seeing heads at least once:
Two coin flips = four possible outcomes:
Tails tails
Heads tails
Tails heads
Heads heads.
The chances that you would get heads at least once is 3 out of 4 possible outcomes.
So for this guy’s situation, there’s an 81% chance his thing doesn’t drop on an single run, but the chance it doesn’t drop 21 times in a row is 0.81*0.81… etc 21 times. Or 0.81^21. which equals 1.1197%. so while it’s unlikely to happen, if someone runs this 21 times, there s a small but not unreasonable chance he’d never see the drop.
1 Like
Averages are not guarantees, especially with computer RNG simulators. Back luck happens, just like good luck. Really bad luck happens just like really good luck.
I had some crazy bad luck back in the Vanilla days getting certain drops. It happens.
Another person who doesnt understand probability. Damn people.
Probability is the calculation of the likelihood of something occurring. If you have a parameter set (ie: 19%) you can calculate the probability of a series event whether that’s should you see it in 5 runs, 10, or 1000.
We all know you could run UBRS 10 billion times and never see it, but the PROBABILITY of an item with a 19% drop rate never dropping over the course of that is ASTRONIMICALLY small.
There’s never a guarantee in probability, I mean that’s sort of why it’s called probability.
3 Likes
And rng is rng I’ve run well over 500 baron run, still have not seen the horsey, its 1% by your definition I should have seen it 5 times. I misspoke on probability, but the facts are the facts if his rng luck is bad, oh well, doesn’t change the facts that each run he has only a 19% chance of seeing that drop
I didn’t define anything. I only listed the probability of it not occurring by 21 runs and apparently being flabbergasted at how little people understand probability. But yes theoretically after 500 runs you should have seen it around 5 times. That is how probability works maybe you’ve only gotten 3 or 4 or maybe 10. Probability doesn’t guarantee anything, it’s just supposed to give you a basis of understanding.
And since the OP said he has done 25 runs it’s actually a .5% chance of not seeing them by then. Conversely not seeing a 1% drop after 500 runs is .6% so you’re basically in the same boat as the OP.