you’ll wish you had rolled on Grobbulus
I mean, I don’t actually think even they know. They can’t really estimate, since they have no actually numbers that mean anything. Name reserves are a small indicator, stress test is irrelevant, and not everyone got into the beta.
They’ll be forced to do high # queues on like 2-3 servers if not more most likely…
There is ZERO chance populations don’t drop dramatically. I would be more worried about an earthquake swallowing the data center.
Well that’s Blizzards hope so I guess you and Blizzard better be right. Other wise going into phase 2 is going to be very interesting.
Not a very good predictor, IMO, because the majority of people don’t play pirated games downloaded from shady websites. If it’s not on Steam or some other reputable store, they just won’t play it.
And I agree with that. But we still don’t know what they’ll do enough to put a percentage on it, because many of them have never played a game like Classic.
Again, although I respect your opinion. It still remains an opinion. And frankly it’s the easiest finger to point at when someone asks (why is WoW failing) (which also btw is still massively successful)
But all these experiences are just from the player perspective and whatever their reasons were. None of it affected me and the community I was with and in fact helped us flourish and continue to flourish up until now. It’s becoming a thing of a ScapeGoat now but regardless, yours or mine, they’re just opinions.
/facepalm
Yes, they had a net gain of 100,000 players. But they also lost 300,000 players in the same quarter in that scenario.
That 300,000 player loss is your population decline that is “normal for during content droughts” starting after Cataclysm launched. What changed at that point is they stopped gaining new/returning players faster than they were losing existing players. A trend which has continued to this day.
Classic WoW might turn out to be a runaway success, but more likely it’s going to draw in a number of players that’ll power game the living daylights out of it, then go very casual, or stop playing entirely, between content phases. Meanwhile the guys who are being more casual about will keep plodding away at 10 or fewer hours a week, working through the content that is available to them once more.
Don’t forget the massive falloff of “no-lifing.” That’s literally a big part of why layering is happening, because so many people are planning on spending every free minute of their lives in this game at first.
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You can facepalm all you want but YOU STILL GAINED 100,000 PEOPLE. Who cares about losing or keep it will ALWAYS fluctuate just like it does in every game
You. Still. Gained.
You’re thinking way too hard about it.
Dunno, I love Classic, but I would never touch a private server. Blizzard polish(and legality) make this launch a lot more interesting in my mind. I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one who would choose to not to play an illegal version of the game.
Also, I think most players are prepared for what Classic is. It’s a lot different than trying a new game to see what all the fuss is about. Between the stress tests, and just prior knowledge, players have a very good idea of what they’re getting this time around.
I think his answer echoes your sentiment. 
It won’t, the tourists will go back to BFA…
What happens if pop stays after phase 1?
Then I get to be painfully smug when talking to my BfA friends.
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“300 thousand people were killed that day… but 400,000 were born… this is great news!”
Context is everything. You have to weigh both factors before you can declare a victory.
PC gamers are not exactly the beacon for anti piracy…While I agree that many won’t play on them, at best they match those that are willing to.
Yes, they gained back then.
There is no reason to expect comparable gains to repeat themselves for this title. While there is every reason to expect the declines will happen as they did before.
We’re hoping for steady population growth after the intiial population surge settles out. But that’s a hope that has no supporting evidence for it at this time.
I’m in the same club, I have never touched a private server for World of Warcraft.
What are you talking about? WOW Vanilla exploded when it was released. What expected “decline will happen as they did before”? I’m confused about what game and what time frame you are talking about?
I just find it so weird that Blizzard is counting on Classic not doing well.
The “Decline” where in the example given they lost 300K players while another 400K new players showed up to take their place. They have every reason to expect to see a repeat of the 300K decline(due to content drought), and no reason to expect 400K new players to show up at the same time(because the game is 15 years old).
The example doesn’t mean anything but OK.