Uh huh.
The only hope is they see what a dark and disgusting slime layering is.
What does being a realist have to do with posting a “Wall of No”?
TLDR:
Layering Bad!
Layering Temporary and solves a problem!
Tastes Great!
Less Filling!
Tastes Great!
Less Filling!
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Yes, totally being a realist thinking BfA will be more popular than Classic.
(Edit: misread)
Totally not part of the Wall of No.
I was responding to someone who thinks that Classic will have 3x the playerbase of BfA at the 6 month mark.
There is absolutely no reason to think that Classic will have a larger playerbase than Modern WoW at the 6 month mark. I bet you’re also part of the unreasonable group that thinks BfA is below 1 million subs worldwide.
This is a good question. Maybe our “resident expert” will field this one.
Those of us who will be mostly solo-playing until we need to group up for dungeon runs and elites don’t care if some random person I don’t know phases out because they joined some random group that happened to be in a random layer. Like, that’s not my business.
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Except for the fact it’s a far better designed game, even being the ~13 year old version of the thing it’s being compared to.
The audience for Classic doesn’t need to be built up over time. Most of the people who wanted vanilla are just waiting to come back. Many of the people still playing retail will swap to Classic, and many more will at least try it.
Given the timeframe, 6 months in, Classic will be vastly more popular than BfA, because BfA will be experiencing a content drought.
Won’t really purport to know, except that the count has been on a downward trend for almost a decade.
How is that even a factor in determining what game will be more popular? Do you think Fortnite is a far better designed game than Classic?
I’ve already went into depth with a semi-accurate method of estimating current sub counts but I’ll just leave you with this.
August of 2015, WoW had fallen to 5.6 million subscribers worldwide. I’m not sure if China was counted in their subscriber numbers at that time.
June of 2015 is when Hellfire Citadel released, that raid was current for over a year before Legion released. In those 14 months a total of 17,800 guilds managed to clear Heroic.
Battle of Dazar’alor released on January 22nd and was current for about 6 months if you exclude the two boss filler raid, CoC. In those 6 months, 14,000 guilds managed to clear the raid on Heroic.
If you kept up with the forums, you’d know that there is far less incentive to raid as Mythic+ gives equal or superior gear for the majority of people playing the game. Back in WoD, there was no alternative to raid gear for the majority of players. Incentive = participation; it’s incredibly unlikely that a higher percentage of players are clearing Heroic now than back in WoD.
How in the absolute hell does anyone think that BfA could be below 1 million subs? There’s about 23% fewer people that cleared Dazar’alor on Heroic in 6 months than there was that cleared Hellfire Citadel in 14 months.
As I said, I’m a realist and I look at numbers to quantify my opinions. I don’t use my “feelings”.
Different genres, different audiences, usually.
As far as Battle Royale games go, Fortnite is arguably the best designed.
Not sure why you’re even talking about this. I never said that.
Not quite.
If I’m not mistaken, Heroic is and was flexible. In order for a group to qualify as a guild group in a flexible party size, 80% of its members must be part of the same guild.
This also doesn’t account for the difficulty of the raids. More guilds clearing it doesn’t necessarily mean more people are playing. It might just means the raids are easier.
The numbers you provided also don’t tell how many of those guilds cleared the content in the same 6 month window. It’s entirely possible that a majority of the guilds that ever clear the content did so relatively quickly, and a much smaller percentage of guilds did so much later on.
Guilds also doesn’t mean unique users. Players can contribute to multiple guild clears by having alts, swapping guilds, and so on.
Any data regarding unique users extrapolated from the number of guilds clearing heroic level raid bosses is going to be unreliable at best.
How many full or high population servers do you think there’s going to be in the NA region on Classic?
I don’t even know how many realms there are going to be in the first place. I also don’t know how many layers the realms will be capped at, and how that affects the population counter.
From my understanding, Blizzard specifically assigns “Full” status to a realm, and its population indicator never changes after that. A realm that is “Full” is always “Full,” even if no one is online.
If layering didn’t exist, depending on the number of realms, I could see every realm being high or medium population. With the number of realms Blizzard had in vanilla, you’d see quite a few low population realms. Despite the popularity of the game both then and now, not everyone is online at once.
Sometimes the server I’m on is listed at medium pop, most of the times it’s low pop.
These are the kinds of excuses I was asking him to preemptively list, good job. We have seven months until I’m proven right and I expect a lot of excuses from you, if you’re even still around on the forums.
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yah I don’t recall him ever posting the wall, even in response to someone asking for it.
If layering means they don’t mess with mob spawn times, then I’m fine with it for the few weeks it will be implemented.
Well, it might not be an excuse for him, but one for you.
If the game is set to recognize a realm as High population once it reaches its original 3k capacity, but layering allows it to go many times over that cap, every realm might be High population.
Alternatively, it could be percentage based, including the layers. Supposedly, the point of layering is to have healthy populations after the initial surge. That initial surge likely means that we’ll be seeing High population on all realms even with layering, and HOPEFULLY 6 months down the line, layering won’t even be in the game, so it won’t be affecting things anyway.
That said, something to consider is that with fewer realms to choose from than in retail, the population will be funneled into fewer realms, and those realms will reach High population more easily.
Granted, that doesn’t necessarily mean Classic would be more popular than retail, though I do maintain it will be.
Whatever helps you sleep at night.
Won’t have any reason to make excuses, even if I’m wrong. I wasn’t really arguing about the number of realms that’ll be labeled as High or Full, but rather the general population/popularity of each game.
I understand you were talking about the former, but it seemed to reek of the Wall of No with how you phrased it, which was the point of my comment.
And how are we going to quantify that if you refuse to accept any form of evidence? Oh yeah, I know!
We’re going to go with the “It’s obvious” or “I feel” methods of determining something. Very popular among many less than honest forum posters.
I’m serious here. I’m using the realm population column on the realm select window as one indicator of popularity between the two games. What are you going to use if you refuse to accept this as being accurate enough?
Yes, the fact I explained how your evidence doesn’t necessarily prove anything because of the numerous variables means that I refuse to accept any form of evidence. And you have the audacity to imply I’m a dishonest forum poster. Haha.
There are ways to gauge population, but all are far less reliable than Blizzard telling us themselves, which they no longer do.
What good is the number of guilds killing Heroic content when used to compare against a version of the game that doesn’t even track guild groups in the first place? How does that prove Classic won’t be as popular or moreso?
I mean, I was arguing that it isn’t necessarily accurate, even if Classic ends up having more High pop realms:
What I mean by that is Classic very well may be less popular, but a significantly smaller list of realms to choose from might result in more realms showing as High pop anyway.
If you want to actually argue popularity with anything other than…
…, then you need to eliminate all the variables. The only accurate way to compare the games’ popularity that I’m aware of subscriber counts and unique monthly/weekly user counts, neither of which are shared by Blizzard and both of which are impossible, or at least highly improbable, to determine as an end-user, especially with such roundabout methods as guilds that cleared Heroic.
Regardless, until Classic is actually out, we have no way of knowing which is more popular, anyway. At best, we can infer based on what we know.
What I know is that vanilla WoW was more popular than WoW was during the last sub count Blizzard shared.
I also know that the subscribers were trending downwards rather significantly.
I also know that WoW’s population has historically dropped the nearer it got to the end of an expansion (ever since Cataclysm).
I also know WoW has been releasing content on a semi-regular basis.
From that I can infer that the population has continually declined overall and is even less popular now than it was, retail will be experiencing a content drought as they wait for the next patch or expansion to release and will consequently have fewer players on than normal.
I highly suspect Classic will be more popular than retail 6 months into its lifespan. Will I know for certain? Nope, but neither will you, and the number of High/Full realms won’t really be a good indicator, either. Nor will the number of guilds that cleared heroic TEP.