Had a friend get one on his first run this year. He’s likely run it hundreds of fewer times than I have over the years. I still don’t have it.
I think this post from 2025 means that there’s no increasing chance for this mount to drop. It has a higher chance once per day, but doesn’t have the new scaling every time you fail to get it system (and still has a extremely low chance to get it on alts).
I would have much preferred it just went onto the same increasing chance that the new mounts have since I’ve already done this hundreds of times over the years and just want it to be over. Since I failed to get it last year I’d also have a very high chance to get it this year instead of the same chance of failing as last year.
edit: Guess I’ll just start doing the trial account trick so I have 5x the chance to actually get it this year. Silly that you have to run it all at the same time but whatever.