It does not “conditionally” rain loot. It does rain loot. You get a 40% chance every run to get a piece, with infinite chances.
I mean, not stacking doesn’t make it rain less. It was an independent point on how easy it is to gear.
Then don’t play for loot.
World content is not my thing. I hate quests and I can’t stand those “events” this expansion has. I just dungeon and raid, that’s it
Best in Slot i think confuses people, I dont think many understand what it means. They just see a list on wowhead and try to copy that.
I dont think they understand why pieces were choosen, why stats are used to certian degrees, soft/hard caps, stat diminishing returns, ect ect, they just see it and deem that is what is needed and anything else is wrong.
Its kinda interesting from a psychology perspective.
Yeah it’s bis, but it isn’t required for Mythic raiding (assuming that’s your goal). Just taking a glance, there are multiple people currently in the top 20 disc priest healer parses that didn’t run it for the handful of bosses I peeked at.
I didn’t get my bis two-handed sword in BfA until literally the week before Shadowlands came out but I was still competitive in m+ and mythic raiding. Sure it would have been nice but you can still accomplish your goals until it drops or ends up in your vault.
What Seeding means is that if you play more, you get more.
If I do one M+ a week, at 40% chance, I may go weeks before I see a single drop from a dungeon.
But if I do 5 M+ per day, at 40% chance, I’ll be swimming in loot by the end of the week.
Hence,
While I agree with the overall sentiment here, I do think it misses a critical point: some items are just fun to play with. It gets easy to view loot at nothing more than a set and forget affair - you equip it and number goes up. And for most items that are boring stat sticks, the transaction ends there.
But it was a blast to use my Manic Grieftorch in S1. The Rashok polearm was fun in S2. This is especially true for tier sets, which is why making the catalyst open week 1 was so big; even if an item isn’t numerically superior it can be more fun. The S3 feral bonus makes the spec feel better to play.
The tier conversation is a off topic for the M+ grind discussion, but it just highlights how unique effects can have an enjoyment factor beyond what shows up on details. That’s why I think having a way to eventually get those unique items after X weeks when RNG just will not cooperate would be good. Even if the items obtained that way is a lower item track than you’d get from the RNG source.
I can assure you the branch OP is farming doesn’t have the same fun factor lol
If you do 100 runs you will have 40 pieces of gear, on average. This does not change regardless of how often you run keys. But someone who engages in content more often literally has more chances to get gear. I do not see this as an issue.
We agree; no one is saying otherwise.
I don’t think he brought it up because it’s an “issue”; I think it was to point out that players who claim it rains loot probably play more than the average player, hence, their experience.
I get where you’re coming from but my angle is what’s achieved over a certain number of runs rather than how long it takes an individual to do those runs. I get someone who doesn’t play as often will not be swimming in gear. But I’m pointing to the fact that for 20-40 minutes of play time equals a 40% chance to generate what equals Heroic raid level loot.
yeah 20s are so hard in a season where the dungeons have no timers…
Mythic+ was a mistake
Nice deflection!
This isn’t how it works.
If the chest has 2 loots and the group is 5 players, You have 2 chances to win a single loot per run.
You have a 1 in 5 chance to win the 1st loot. This is 20%, not 40%.
Then a 1 in 4 chance to win the 2nd loot, this is 25%, not 40%.
That does NOT equal a 40% chance per run, and It also does not mean if you run 100 times you will have gotten 40 pieces on avg.
Out of 5 players, 2 leave with loot. Any one players has a 40% chance to be one of the 2 walking out with loot.
If there are 100 keys ran there will be 200 pieces of loot evenly split, on average, between 5 players, totalling 40 pieces per player.
It is highly unlikely that is how they coded it, as the distribution is different for the second selection. It’s more likely like this:
They most likely just have the game randomly select a number between 0 and 9 to determine which case occurs.
Statistics is fun!
And more people should learn how the Monthy Hall problem works, as that would alleviate a lot of people’s issues with statistics.
Grinding M+ for gear is not awful unless you are going in there with an expectation of getting an upgrade every 1~2 runs.
Although you might have some bad RNG streaks here and there, M+ is a relatively quick and reliable way to get gear overall, not to mention it is repeatable as much as you desire.
Now, if you want to grind for a specific trinket in M+, that could get awful.
Did you … just quote Martin Luther King talking about civil rights struggle and equate that with gearing in a video game.
No words
Maybe not, it would come down to what the best way to use it for their spec is. Some specs might change up their rotation in some way when they use the branch.
But even if this particular item is just a boring stat stick with an extra step, there have been items from M+ that were more engaging. My point is that wanting to get an item from M+ is not necessarily only because the log after the fact shows a larger number. There can be a fun factor as well that people miss out on if RNG never cooperates and there doesn’t exist any system to eventually get it deterministically.
I don’t think we can assume Blizzard coded it in any given way. Personal loot was used in raid as well and while it would be possible to model it the way you’re describing, it would almost certainly have been fewer man hours to just code the individual random selections. They very well could have simply dropped that system onto M+ with different variables for the amount of items per 5 players and the algorithm would work the same way.
With that said, the percentage still is 40% regardless which system is used. The problem people run into trying to calculate the probability is they lose the conditional of needing to get to the second item in the first place. It’s not a straight 25% on the second roll because you have to account for the fact that you didn’t win the first 20% dice roll. Whether you calculate the conditional probability of first or second given not first, inverse that you did not win (since it is binary of did win or did not win), or use an outcome table as you copied here, you still wind up at 40%.