Fat and Demoralized (rant)

[Meridyth-proudmoore]

@Carstine-frostmourne

but a collection of attempts we can say the probability of something having occured over n attempts.

No, because there is no additive effect.

@Carstine-frostmourne

80% chance you would have seen it by that point.

No. There is always a 94% chance you will not see it.