Evoker Legendary Quest -Mythic Sarkareth Drop

Community General Discussion
345

I’m too tired to do the math but my kneejerk takeaway reading that and my meh statistical knowledge says I’m still better off, were I an evoker wanting to maximize my chances, at 3 dice rolls compared to 1 slightly better odds roll.

It reminds me of horrific visions back in BfA. You got the best reward for 5 mask runs and any subsequent run gave you a decaying value item drop. So if you did a 5 mask run and then another 5 mask run, you got the 5 mask run drop and the 4 mask run drop.

However if you was a fresher alt, it may have worked to your advantage to do the mask runs in ascending order because your gear may not have been able to handle a 5 mask run but getting the lower tier drops in hand may have pushed you to the point where you could do your harder mask runs. It was still, on paper, the same reward values for the same runs but it could lead to totally different results.

Ah well. I’m not playing an evoker as a main or serious alt, so it doesn’t affect me. Just seems like a weird design decision.

346

can you guys add bad luck protection to this sort of thing. its really not fun doing this week after week from week 1 on heroic and just not getting it. Its so frustrating seeing that stupid global message of people getting the legendary while people in my guild meme about me not getting mine.

8 Likes
347

So the reasoning isn’t to do it for a higher chance at drops, but to do it to get gear to assist in the harder difficulty. I guess if someone is struggling with heroic sarkareth they can run normal sarkareth first for drops to better handle heroic, but that’s completely irrelevant to the drop chance of the legendary here.

348

This doesn’t make sense people are doing are killing Sarkareth on Heroic and not getting the drop then getting the drop on a normal kill right after doing heroic. You can ask anyone in the Evoker Discord.

4 Likes
349

There are people who cleared a higher difficulty and got the drops doing a lower difficulty after.

So???

6 Likes
350

No I was making a comparison. Assuming someone can reliably get a heroic Sark kill each week (and normal), the question is strictly a matter of odds with the question being is it truly equal to have 1 dice roll of the cumulative odds vs 3 dice rolls of the lower odds that still end up at the same overall percentage.

So again, to use made up numbers, which has the following odds assuming LFR = 1%, normal = 3%, heroic = 5%

Is 1 dice roll looking for that 9% result greater than, less than, or identically equal to 3 dice rolls with target result of 1%, 3%, and 5% respectively.

351

Thanks for providing this information.

Some feedback on this legendary and the way communication around it has been managed:

  • Firstly, this information should have been released immediately when it was available after RWF concluded. The initial comments provided by the devs on how to obtain the legendary heavily stated this worked differently and implied players had a chance at every difficulty per week to obtain this, when now we know it’s not the case. Players have been wasting their time completing lower difficulties for no reason.
  • Secondly, players REALLY don’t like this low RNG chance of obtaining legendaries at all. Please for the future do not do this anymore. Just make it like some previous legendaries so players can see their progress each week, like Dragonwrath, Fangs of the Father, Shadowmourne. If you’re going to add low RNG drop rates for legendaries, they really MUST have bad luck protection.
10 Likes
352

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

353

The thing is, you are assuming that all 3 rolls are the same value… Heroics roll is higher, Normal is less, LFR is near non existent. So as you go through the rolls the 1 roll at 50% chance is a higher % chance because the roll odds are actually lower on the other two rolls.

So if the drop % is lets say 9% right for heroic, and normal is 3% and LFR is 1%… what this does is makes your Heroic roll a lower % if you do LFR and normal first in that order… your Heroic roll might be 6%. Depending what that number is, your Three rolls end up being about equal to 1 in 33 for Normal and 1 in 100 for LFR… vs just having a 1 in 9.5 chance. You see what we getting at? multi rolls have to be the same value to have more % chance ortherwise your heroic roll would be equal to probably 1 in 18

354

That question doesn’t even matter since whether or not that’s how it even works is pure speculation.

355

It seems like there’s still some miscommunication happening. Blizzard, get your house in order please.

1 Like
356

Its not superstition, its probability and statistics, ie: math, albeit more advanced discrete mathematics.

If heroic is 1 roll at a combined chance vs 3 rolls at lower chances - then its roughly 27.5% more probable to get a legendary from doing LFR then Normal then Heroic then Mythic.

The Math Example - and excuse me in advance cause i had to dust off my old statistics and probability books:

Assumptions (LFR 1%, Normal 5%, Heroic 10%)

100% - Difficulty = [0.99, 0.95, 0.90] respectively for chances of it NOT happening.

0.99 * 0.95 * 0.90 = 0.84645
1 - 0.84645 = 0.15355 or 15.355% chance of it happening

stacked value of blizz math is 1%+5%+10% = 16%

which looks like its better right? And is why they said to just do heroic, but wait for it…

The mathematical formula this gets plugged into is:
(1-p)^N < (1-P)^n ?

p, n is our chance, # of rolls (individual - ie: LFR/N/H)
P,N is our chance, # of rolls (stacked - ie: Heroic kill)

(3 rolls) < (1 roll) ? True = 1 roll more probable, False = 3 roll more probable

(1-0.15355)^1 < (1-0.16)^3 ?
(0.84665) < (0.592704) ?

Reads, “Is left side less of a probability then right side?”. It is not.

The left side (3 rolls) is a greater probability.

This is why folks are asking for how many ROLLS the heroic kill gives. Cause if its 1 roll at a combined chance, then its a mathematical fact, not superstition, that its better to do LFR, then Normal, then Heroic for the 3 Rolls vs 1 Roll.

Its rough math cause I am albeit a bit rusty, but I hope that helps clarify the points people are making.

3 Likes
357

So basically, you guys just outright lied to us when you told us that higher difficulties have a higher chance to drop the legendary? Because let’s be very clear, rolling 3 times on w/e garbage drop chance the legendary has and thus “effectively” having a higher chance of getting the legendary, isn’t the same as LFR having a 1% chance, normal having a 2% chance, and Heroic having a 3% chance. Because to be clear - every difficulty has the SAME exact chance to drop the legendary, the only difference is that Heroic has a simulated higher drop chance than Normal or LFR because you’re rolling 3 dice at a time instead of 2 or 1, assuming you haven’t done either LFR or Normal before doing Heroic. Absolutely insane that you waited SIX WEEKS to give us this information - especially after just lying to our faces about higher difficulties having a higher drop chance.

2 Likes
358

You’re assuming that the different difficulties have different drop rates. This new post implies that every difficulty has the same exact drop rate and the only difference is that you roll on that drop rate all 3 times when you do Heroic, assuming you haven’t done the other two difficulties yet. They just outright lied to us about the increased drop chance on higher difficulties - because “technically” the odds of it dropping for someone who clears Heroic first for a week will have a higher drop chance than someone who clears Normal first for the week (from those respective kills, not total drop chance for the week). We should fully work under the assumption that they just lied to us, and that every difficulty has the same drop chance - either that, or this new blue post has ZERO clue how statistics works.

360

Sub in 5% for LFR, Normal, Heroic - you will still get that the left side is a higher probability if the Heroic roll is only 1 roll.

The drop rate doesnt matter, the number of rolls does.

361

I mean sure, that part is fair - I’m just saying we should fully operate under the assumption that they all have the same drop rate now unless Blizz just comes out and gives us the actual drop rates. Because someone coming out and saying “nono, they’re definitely different” means jack all at this point. Outside of that, yes we also need to know if it’s rolling a single combined chance or if it’s rolling 3 times. It’s unreal that this needs to be explained to the devs.

2 Likes
362

Can you confirm it’s personal so multiple “could” drop and not 1 per raid group? I’ve been denied by many normal groups trying to kill him because they already have an evoker trying to get it.

1 Like
363

no, they didnt. Higher difficulties have a higher chance because it uses both rolls from lower difficulties ontop of the difficulties you are in if you do it in heroic.

364

This was going to be my question as well. This really needs to be answered. Sometimes you see groups with like 6+ evokers in it. I avoid those groups like the plagues as it is undetermined if the item does drop, it will be for only 1 evoker per kill or is there the possibility for multiple drops per kill. Nobody likes to be discriminated for or against groups just for an item.

365

This isn’t confirmed, but it’s the only way what they’ve been provided would be statistically true in the end, yeah.

What’s goofy about this is if we assume up to 3 rolls for Heroic, then a player who has been killing normal Sark followed by Heroic Sark each week has mathematically had a higher chance of seeing the Gem drop on their normal kill if that kill uses 2 of the 3 allotted rolls for the week. Just silly.

Someone here on the forums said a few weeks ago that the evoker discord had a screenshot somewhere of two drops in a single kill.