Took me like 15 runs to get Invincible. Not acceptable.
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I feel as if many people do not understand how probability works. An increased drop chance to 5% does not mean that after 20 tries you will for certain have received the mount. The probability of the event occurring is: 1 - (.95) to the Nth power. So in a series of 20 runs at 5% chance to drop you would have a 1 - 0.23 (100)% chance to have encountered the event once. OrâŚit would take 20 runs to reach a 77% chance that the event had already taken place.
You have a greater chance of NOT GETTING the mount than you do of getting it.
The superstitions are half the fun.
Well, maybe somewhere between 10% and 90% of the fun depending on oneâs personality?
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Lol oh I donât disagree. I got a whole stack of those âmembersâ cards they give you at those casinos. (HeyâŚIâm a sucker for a crab leg buffet).
Using your formula, I came up with a 35% chance of getting it at 20 runs and an 87% chance at 40 runs.
I dunno.
If we simplify 95/100 to be 19/20 (ie 95%% failure rate), and take that to the 20th power (19/20)^20. That equals, approximately, 0.358 (rounding to 0.36). Take that away from 1 (1-.36). Leaves us with .64 or a 64% rate of success that a drop will happen in those runs.
Changing the number to (19/20)^40 gives us roughly 0.128 (13%) or a 87% chance of success for at least one drop over all 40 runs.
No arguments here. Your math is correct. However, only if you are only farming one single mount during this time. If you are farming multiple mounts, then (I believe) the Bonferroni Correction comes into play and the act of farming multiple drops actually changes the success rates of some of the mounts being farmed (meaning that itâs very likely that one or more mounts will take longer than statistically expected)
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Yeah. Itâs like lotto! Letâs all go play Keno.
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Iâm better at blackjack. I just wish that WoW gave you free drinks while we gambl⌠I mean farm for mounts.
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im on attempt 59 for the raptor mount from kings rest, that thing does not want to drop for me
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I had 40 kills for Sharkbait and 50 or so for GMOD last week with nothing, hoping for better luck this week :')
I got that one in 3 fries⌠then the under rot crawg & shark bait back to back within 10 min all on one character same day lol
Iâm starting to wonder if thereâs good luck protection lol. Both weeks I was getting 2-3 mounts a day then by the end of the week it would dry up then weekly reset and mounts start dropping again. Several friends had the same experience.
All i got was that stupid panther
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Iâve run LFR Jaina for G.M.O.D. like 45 times and still havenât gotten it yet. Invincible and the one off mythic Gulâdan took a fraction of this many attempts to getâŚ
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I got both mount off Deathwing at once. So no more Spine of Deathwing for me but still missing one other mount off a different boss.
Still want to get the BFA mount and the 2 horse mount from Kara ToH. I am working on mounts I really want and is fast and easy to get. SL is still takes too long to run per character. i was 12 chararcter running for mounts so I want to do the quick and easy one to increase my chance of getting more mounts in the least possible time.
Maybe!? Idk itâs just rng but I had awful luck first 50 tries nothing then now I have 13 mounts in 200 runs total so like Iâm at 6.5% drop chance which is right on the money for the average % boosted rate of the mounts Iâve received. Iâm happy. Just want/need blazing drake, invincible, & feels feel annihilator & Iâm happy
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Got all the mount of event. Now just need to chill farm for those xmog legendary !
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Save your sanity and mute while farming lmao
On wenday I got few mounts that good news, Able to Be done with fire land and raid with wind lord is off my list, sadly not fully free of some places but Rng is rng. =/
I feel ya.
That fight has one of the worst voice actors, for sure.