At a 5% success rate, the average player should be seeing a mount drop every 80 runs (ish). (As I said above)
7 mounts at 169 runs is about a mount every 24 runs. (Deleting because I’m less sure of my ability to do the math backwards, but I’m solid on the conclusion)
Which is not to say that the buff is not 5%. That assumption is true, but if my math is correct then not only is it not bugged, but Cross is ahead of the curve in terms of success.
Lol, here is your math. 100 runs you should have 5 mounts
So to get a mount you have to roll 1-5 out of 100, the only way to roll 1,2,3,4,5 in one hundred rolls is if you never roll the same number twice.
Sabbia is correct in that its 5% every roll, so at 45 kills you have a 90% chance of having a drop. At 100 its 99.5% but its never a guarantee
edit- just for clarity 99.5% at 100 runs means that percentage of people will have it, it doesn’t mean your chance of a mount dropping increases, its always 5%(plus whatever the drop rate was before)
Okay 7-169 is amazing!!!
I’m
At 3 for 170 as of last night & think it’s accurate I’m just a little less lucky than some others
Assuming the pcts they give us are true for all it’s a 9.75% chance that one of them gets it.
Heard of multiple geargliders dropping.
Those two mounts are meant to be personal loot but i haven’t seen more than 1 drop so far. 
But this is pure anecdote and in theory multiple should be able to drop for peeps.
The average player will get a mount every 20 runs. Actually lower than that since they added 5% to the already 1-2% rates, so its generally 6 or 7% except for some very rare mounts.
Not really.
It’s more like… Out of every run, on every toon, on every account… 1 out of 20 will be successful on average. It’s not quite the same thing. 5% of all of the runs over the whole month will be successful.
Individually it’s more complex. Per person, the likelihood of a mount drop after 20 runs is actually closer to 64% (1-(1-P)^n)
i’m done bro i spent my entire day off for this garbage buff and i get nothing like ZERO mount, i’ve ran 40 toons on 4 expansions lol, i should’ve not resub for this and stayed offline… welp back to space marine 2, see y’all in season 3
The average player will get a mount 1 out of 20 times (or maybe 1 out of 16 if it is 6%). That is how chance works. Now if you are looking at one person running one boss over and over, then probability of outcomes can be calculated. There is a 6% chance you get it on the first kill, 12% to get it in first two kills, 17% within 3 kills, etc. Each kill individually each time has a 6% chance.
Looking at my results over hundreds of kills and comparing to the 6% published rate is a reasonable way of determining if there is a bug. Right now it looks like it is correct, no bug.
I… feel like we are agreeing, or at least coming to the same conclusion, so… Yea…I agree. I also don’t believe there is a bug.
I haven’t really farmed much at all, but the few things I’ve done I’ve had ZERO success w/ getting a mount or legendary.
Yea, I mean, that’s kind of what I’m trying to remind people on here. The buff increases the success from about 1% to about 5%. That’s still a 95% fail rate per run.
To put it in perspective, even if you ran ICC on 20 different toons this week. You’re still only looking at an over all success rating of about 64%. Though that is much better than it’s normal drop rate. Which would only be about 18% success after 20 runs.
Yep, just got my first mount of the event, mimiron’s head. As a Yogg Zero, astral walker herald of the titans player I feel good that I finally got it after killing it in wrath.
Oh congrats! I remember stories of people farming that back in the Wrath days. That’s a good one to get if you are going to get one.
The one mount I really want is Invincible. no luck yet, but I have 80 runs over the month, so I have faith. I have gotten both Midnights, and the deathcharger. Wish those were flying but they are really cool, and a blue drake. Which is also pretty cool!
Yea, Invincible is easily my fav mount in the game. I wish there were more Pegasus options, hope you get it.
I’m gonna try a different way now to try and get the point across: can you explain why every collector with 1000+ mounts has every single old low drop rate mount?
Are they all lucky or perhaps they do enough runs to get to have a cumulative % chance, usually 99%, where you’re basically sure to have got the mount at that point?
Case in point, not getting a 5% drop chance mount in 1000 tries is as likely as winning the lottery.
Thanks, so it’s actually helpful to run it with 2 toons, just more effort, I had to know for statistical purposes, as if 2 toons make no difference to the drop rate, then my 400 overall attempts there become 200, nice that you got necrotic one back then, I heard of quite a few people who got it back when current.
Thanks also to abraxas, I believe (in eu, where I play) I got both gmod and the sanctum gloomcharger from lfr directly in bags, without having to loot, so they definitely work differently compared to the others.
And serphim: great way to explain the difference between the chance of getting it in 1 try compared to the one to get it across multiple tries.
Thats a falacy. Anyone that gets a mount just happened to get it within its drop percent, there is no cumulative chance.
That’s correct there is no cumulative chance.
A 1% drop can still take someone over 200/300 attempts. It’s super unfortunate and does go against the odds, but it’s still on the graph.
(G.M.O.D and both SoD ones are going to be my bane)
300 attempts at 1% drop each attempt actually does get you about a 95% chance of success…that is so many runs and you can still have bad RNG 
I honestly wish they would buff it higher. There is just soo much to gather in the game over 20 years.