Blizzard doesn’t shut down every server though, in fact they ignore the vast majority of them… its only when they become popular enough to actually start effecting subs they will finally take action.
It was nost shutting down that created the outcry big enough for blizzard to finally do their own classic servers, like it or not we wouldn’t be here now in these forums without nost.
Personally, I don’t think it will take 5-6 months to see the plummet; I think it’ll happen in about 2 or 3 months.
I also disagree about what happens as people reach endgame. In my opinion, that’s more likely to cause a second slump rather than an increase. As people realize that doing virtually any end-game content requires becoming part of a 40-man guild, it’s going to be a turn-off for many.
Basically, I don’t see the population ever steadily and gradually increasing. There’s going to be a huge spike at the very start, but that’s probably the highest the Classic playerbase will ever be. I do expect periodic bumps from Retail tourists whenever Retail goes through a content drought, which in my opinion is probably a key reason behind Blizzard going ahead with Classic - they figure more people will dabble in Classic during those droughts rather than un-sub entirely. But when new content comes out, those tourists will be back to Retail.
I don’t believe so either most people still here at the 4 month mark will likely be long term.
I am expecting the population numbers to drop off drastically between day 2 and 15.
Because many people want classic to succeed for various reasons, but are nervous about being wrong. By creating an argument against that nervousness, they’re self-reassuring that classic will succeed.
If more than 40% of the returning players keep the sub for month two I will consider Classic an absurd success.
That is an incredibly low bar.
Yeah and on top of that all the modern players that just log in to Classic to take a look around and basically never login back again will be a huge bunch.
How so? What do you expect to happen with Cyberpunk 2077, for example, regarding the number of players trying it in the first day and how many of those still play it by the second month?
Why does Classic have to be any different?
Genre. A successful MMO needs to have staying power beyond the two month range if they have any hope of seeing returns on their investment. A single player game only needs the first month of sales and everything after that is gravy.
Not to mention the fact that MMO’s incur upkeep. You need to pay the devs, the people maintaining the servers, the people cleaning up after the people maintaining the servers, the people who mow the lawn in front of the building, etc.
But generally speaking it’s a low bar for MMO standards because unless you screw up harder than Bless Online, having 40% of your players still subscribed after 2 months is a guarantee.
Haven’t played WoW in 14 years. Randomly heard about classic coming back via a youtube feed. I think it will bring older mmo players back into the fray. Think the grind may be a wake up call for some newer ones though.
Man…I guess I’m optimistic.
I’m thinking after the tourist drop off we’re still looking at 1mil+ and that’s the minimum I suspect.
Except that is not even remotely the case with Classic. The investment was peanuts. No class design, no world design, no art, no music… etc. Pure and simple programming. They just need the first month sub, much like selling a single player game, to make a lot of money.
And with today’s infrastructure, the costs are almost linear; Blizzard doesn’t have to shut the servers down if there are only 10 realms alive.
I hated Mists of Pandaria - but I loved the classes. Protection Paladins were at their most fun. They really screwed it up.
A lot of the drop outs will be people who rolled warriors and didn’t realize what they were getting into. Solo leveling a warrior in classic put hair on your chest.
I’m expecting the big drop to happen in the first 3 to 8 weeks.
After that, “a long decline” is likely to happen. Although runaway growth is possible and I hope for it, I’m not banking on it.
But the sharp “tourist drop” at the start will be there all the same.
The drop off will come from folks trying the game and simply not liking it. Showing up for the party they’ve heard about and simply not liking the band.
The AH won’t save it for these people. The market won’t save it for these people. Guilds won’t save it for these people.
They’re going to come in with all these stories, play around with it, and find the stories don’t match the experience that they’re having.
The game did not change and evolve in a vacuum.
As for anecdotal evidence, among the people I hang around with, none are interested in the game. I know one person personally who is gung ho about it, ready to dive in. But I don’t know how long that shine will last, frankly.
The company is prepared for an onslaught early on and expecting a population decline. The entire Layering facility is premised on this.
If populations sustain, then they can create more realms. But the people will have to move to them voluntarily. But if Blizzard felt a collapse wasn’t highly likely, they would simply provision more realms up front.
No, they don’t “know” just like any of the rest of us. None of us “know” what will happen.
But they do have a good feel for traffic, populations, demographics, etc. Lots of folks trapped at desks all day that figure this stuff out.
So, if they think and are planning and tooling for a drop off, then it’s more likely than not.
When Phase 2 hits, and Layering is removed, we’ll know. If there are more realms created, then more folks stayed than not. If not, even if there’s one particularly popular realm, then Blizzard will have felt that there’s enough capacity on the other realms for folks to transfer too, without Layering.
And if they add a RP-PVP realm or too, that’s a different issue that’s not population based.
But, either way, by December – we’ll probably know.
You sir, do not understand Intellectual Property law. If they want to keep their IP rights, they have to act on every infringement of their IP. Certain laws regarding abandonware have muddied the issue for them in certain jurisdictions however, which is the biggest part of how we are here about to see Classic WoW go live. As that puts the title in a “not abandoned” state, and frees their lawyers to open up on the sites they’ve not been pursuing aggressively just yet.
I think the drop off will come in phases.
Phase 1: about 1-2 months into release and due to two populations: (1) Players who did not play Vanilla want to give it a try and a fraction of them will find it unappealing or the grind too slow. (2) Players who played Vanilla and remembered it as the greatest thing ever and finding their taste have changed in the past 15 years.
Phase 2: Around 5-6 month simply due to attrition and fading appeal. There’s a reason why WoW had expansions in the first place ya?
Then there are those of us who will always come back and check out the scenery. I head out to the coast of Desolace and jungle of Feralas just to see it from time to time 
Or to STV for that music
Explain your numbers first.
Are you saying that tourists will leave after 5-6 months? Or that we’ll have a drop from the non-tourists after 5-6 months.
We’re going to have a massive peak and fall in the first 3-4 weeks. At the 5-6 month mark people will be prepping for BWL, so I don’t know why anyone would leave at that point.
the private server hey day was years ago. its mostly over by now, they have been a few thousand people still going lately but that isnt a lot at all