I want to echo what forever has said (he’s the true expert here though) and add a few more thoughts;
I’ve looked at a few other set sims and our other spec sims for Rogues. And while some are still clearly over tuned, I’m assuming the power budget they want for these sets is around 15%. (Maybe I’m off though, as some sets are sitting above 20%, including the other rogue sets, which are just slightly over tuned I’d say, but not by much. See below for why…)
We are going to be heading into next raid doing considerably less damage (most specs will though honestly, but Sin/Outlaw will be hit very hard) due to the heavy borrowed power of the Frost set for Sin/Outlaw and blood for Sub. And both Sin and Outlaw didn’t really come into their own until the Frost set became “abused” and we started to REALLY stack crit. I’m not saying that wasn’t an interesting min/max dynamic, and I enjoyed the power spike from getting the frost set and getting to high crit values, but the set itself is what is carrying our damage, not our base kits/tuning right now. I know for a lot of specs that is the case, so I won’t comment on if Rogues might need some base tuning, but I can almost bet they will just at looking at a few other classes and what their dom sets offer damage wise vs. ours.
(Once again, most seem to be in the 12-15% range, but Outlaw and Sin both are ABOVE that 15%, which leads me to believe our kits are somewhat still under tuned overall, and the Dom sets are carrying us, along with the sylv dagger/PS weapon adding another good 2-4% depending on spec)
If the sims are even ballpark accurate, you can assume that the Outlaw set is still UNDER tuned then, even compared to some other class sets. If they want the power budget of most sets to sit around that 15% mark, outlaw still needs some love.
I’m assuming the proc rate of the 2pc needs to be buffed a tad, maybe 30-40%, and the 4pc honestly still needs something. A 4% dmg increase for a 4pc doesn’t seem to feel all that great. I’m not saying it needs to be huge, I think a split between the 2pc and 4pc is generally better feeling than the 2pc being small and the 4pc being the one everyone needs to feel like their class is viable.
However, what’s frustrating from watching Outlaw and it being one of my favorite specs, is it never seems to get the attention to detail as other specs. It being an RNG spec also makes it feel like you as designers aren’t really sure what to do with it, as a small % increase here or there will make the outlier’s seem too high on the delta, but the majority of the time playing it feels frustrating.
This set is a great opportunity to give the spec some much needed Agency on the RNG, and give it a feel good moment and the “I did that” damage feeling when you do it right. I like the idea of the BtE 4pc, but it needs to feel GOOD lining up that damage sequence you mentioned with Greenskins, and it should be REWARDED with doing good damage. Right now, celerity with it’s boring 8% damage buff tied to AR, is still better than it, all while pressing the same buttons.
tl;dr - Frost set is carrying Outlaw/Sin. Both specs might need some base tuning. Sin/sub set might be slightly over tuned but might be needed to keep it competitive. Outlaw set in general is still under tuned (by a decent amount). 4pc needs to feel like a great damage sequence moment that’s rewarding to curb the frustrations of some of the RNG gods of outlaw.