When your statistical methodology is wrong, I would say a theory based on logic is more likely to be correct. I took the liberty of doing some proper analysis.
We know that there is a suppression on crit auras, so a proper comparison would look at the additional suppression above 3% vs. the amount of aura crit, and then fit a linear regression to that to arrive at three possible conclusions.
There is an intercept and zero (or close enough) coefficient on the aura crit, which means aura crit is suppressed by a flat amount
There is an intercept and a coefficient on the aura crit, which means aura crit is suppressed a flat amount plus some percentage of aura crit
There is no intercept and a coefficient on the aura crit, which means aura crit is suppressed by a percentage of aura crit (What I believe is most likely).
I fit two regression lines, one with an intercept, and one without, the results are as follows:
With intercept: Suppression = 1.58% + 0.0228 * aura_crit (95% CI of ±0.003% on the intercept, the slope is not statistically significant)
Without intercept: Suppression = 0.1770 * aura_crit (95% CI of ±0.0062 on the slope)
I can provide the Python notebook for review if you’d like, but what this tells us is that we don’t have nearly enough data to determine which is accurate, as you might think it’s 60k data points, but in fact is it only 16.