I wanted to bring up a major issue that I think is fair discussion about NPC defense mechanics in WoW Forever, that was a huge problem IMHO in WoW Classic: Defense of NPC.
If you are not aware of what I am talking about, it is the defense stats flat % chance you can dodge, parry, block and you the player miss. These are reduced through improved hit chance for Miss and now with new stat Expertise: Reduce the chance the NPC can dodge, parry, block.
Yesterday on my Hunter, I encountered an NPC in Darkshore. It was one of the Nightstalkers (Dark cat NPCs) and it was lv 18. My Hunter is level 18 but my 2h Axe (at that time) was only 75 out of 90 for weapon mastery/expertise. Each point that your weapon master is not at max, improves (even a same level mob’s) chance to Parry, Block, Dodge by 0.04%. This means my white hits (Auto Attacks) and yellow abilities had something like 5.64% total chance for the NPC to parry, Block, Dodge and also for my Miss chance as I have no hit chance improvement.
My character preceded to have a Yellow Miss, White Dodge, Yellow Parry, Yellow Parry, Yellow Block, White Dodge, Yellow Miss. I was trying to spam raptor strike on CD and Wing Clip which is why you see so many Yellow attacks in between White attacks and also Mongoose when it proc.
So I ask Google this question:
What are the statistical odds of 5.64% event happening twice in a row, 3 times in a row, 4 times in a row, 5 times in a row, 6 times in a row, and 7 times in a row?
Google provided me with this math so I did not have to do it:
-
- 2 times in a row:
- Probability: 0.318096% (\(0.0564 \times 0.0564\))
- Odds: 1 in 314.37
- 3 times in a row:
- Probability: 0.017941%
- Odds: 1 in 5,573.95
- 4 times in a row:
- Probability: 0.001012%
- Odds: 1 in 98,828.81
- 5 times in a row:
- Probability: 0.000057%
- Odds: 1 in 1,752,283.94 (roughly 1 in 1.75 million)
- 6 times in a row:
- Probability: 0.000003%
- Odds: 1 in 31,068,864.15 (roughly 1 in 31 million)
- 7 times in a row:
- Probability: 0.00000018%
- Odds: 1 in 550,866,385.61 (roughly 1 in 551 million)
- 2 times in a row:
I am not a math expert, but once something has hit 3 times in a row, it is nearly statistically IMPOSSIBLE to happen. Now, Warriors are well known for this event happening to them. Which means one of two things is happening.
- WoW developers have developed an algorithm or a code that makes the Impossible possible.
- WoW developers have a current code not working as intended.
I would love to see that Blizzard made #1 a reality as it is a great feat. But most likely #2 is the correct answer.
So I present this findings it to the Developers: can you please fix your NPC defense code so it cannot chain events as it is shown by statistics to be statistically Impossible for what happened to my hunter and sadly many warriors and other 2h classes, but not to exclude 1h melee classes as well.