When rated underdog what is win%?

I doubt matchmaking can make 50/50 games 100 percent of the time but how far is the matchmaker allowed to swing the percentage and still create teams? AND when your team is rated the underdog in the match, what is the win percentage for the underdog team and vice versa?

There are multiple things that could be taken into consideration with these kinds off matchmaking algorithms. Keep in mind I do not work for Blizzard and am only answering from the point of view of someone who has written matchmaking algorithms for other games.

Basically matchmaking is done by initially trying to get a perfect 50/50 match; but after enough time has passed, the algorithm has to stretch its search parameters in terms of what is an acceptable match. In simpler terms, to avoid infinitely long queue times, they have to allow more and more varied matches. This can also be influenced by the amount of players online in a given rank, as the less people online, the more the algorithm has to stretch what is acceptable in a match.

This is something that only Blizzard can answer, as they are the only ones who could possibly have these statistics.

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It’s hard to say how far from 50/50 is allowed or is common. I suspect that MercyMain is correct and as the queue time increases it slowly increases the tolerance. But that’s just conjecture.

Your win probability is used to calculate SR increases and decreases. When you are the favourite and win you get less SR than if you were the under dog and won. Losses are handled similarly.

One thing of note is that Blizzard has previously stated that many players have a win rate of ~50%. This implies that regardless of the calculated win probabilities of individual matches the long run the average actual (not calculated by the system) win probability is 50%.

We are not trying to drive your win/loss percentage toward a certain number (although the fact that so many people are at 50% win rates makes us extremely happy).

So by this logic, if we have a long queue time then it’s more likely that it’s going to be a steamroll for us or the enemy.

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Not inherently, but the SR and account level differences could definitely cause this. But keep in mind that these stats are not always 100% accurate as some of these people could be on a big loosing or win streak due to factors other than their own skill (like internet problems, tilt, ect.).

When it comes down to it, the only thing that decides the outcome of a match is the players. Just try your best; focus less on the outcome of a single game, and more on your own play and how you can improve, because you can always improve. :slightly_smiling_face:

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For what it’s worth, they have stated there is indeed a cutoff, iirc.

Cutoff for what? (20 characters LUL)

How favored/unfavored a team can be.

Oh yeah of course, there has to be. For the same reason a diamond can queue with a GM.

See Groups and Matchmaking in Overwatch, especially

Yeah, the matchmaking went crazy after 15min, and you could played in a game with people ranks from silver and diamind in the same match, especially after apex legends came out, ow player base is much smaller than before.

Yeah your SR is the same but your winrate took a dump at the expense of the matchmaker