When rated underdog what is win%?

Kaawumba-1133 · March 27, 2019, 3:20pm

See Groups and Matchmaking in Overwatch, especially

Several months back we implemented a restriction that prevents the matchmaker from creating games that are severely one-sided. Whenever it wants to make a game, it calculates an expected win percentage for each team based on the SR of all the players. If one of the teams doesn’t have at least a predicted 40% win rate, then we simply don’t create the game. Even if you do end up in game where your predicted win rate is close to 40%, it’s important to remember that it also means that your SR will drop less when you lose, and you will gain more SR if you win. To help explain this further, here’s a simplified example to help explain how predicted win percentage affects your SR. As an example, let’s say you play 10 games in a row and all 10 games only have a predicted 40% win rate. If you win 4 of those 10 matches, your SR be the same as it started.